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ELECTIONS '96

Muslim support likely to place UDF on top in Kerala

D Jose in Thiruvananthapuram

The electoral balance for the 20 Lok Sabha seats in Kerala, which go to polls on February 28, seems to tilt in favour of the Opposition Congress-led United Democratic Front.

While the UDF's coalition partners like the Indian Union Muslim League and the Kerala Congress-M may end with their usual quota of three seats, the Congress is set to improve its 1996 tally of 7 seats. The factor that favours it most is the stability card the party played to its hilt in the fortnight-long campaign.

Although there are no signs of any Congress wave, a Muslim consolidation towards the party is discernible. Muslim political forces and cultural organisations, who earlier stood alone or helped the ruling Left Democratic Front, have adopted a pro-UDF stance.

The Congress's decision to deny ticket to former prime minister P V Narasimha Rao, who is perceived by the Muslim masses as the main culprit in the Babri Masjid crisis, has a lot to do with this change of mind. Sonia Gandhi's campaign further reinforced the minority community's faith in the Congress. This helped several radical groups like the People's Democratic Party and the Indian National League to take a pro-UDF stand, despite their opposition to the IUML. The common Muslim has, thus, come to believe that only the Congress is in a position to keep the Bharatiya Janata Party at bay.

"There is no use voting for the LDF because they are not going to come to power at the Centre," says 33-year-old Rahim, at Vadakara.

These developments among the Muslims have apparently forced the IUML to firm its position in the UDF. However, a section in the IUML still feels the Congress will need the support of other secular forces in the United Front to prevent the BJP from coming to power.

The consolidation of Muslim forces can vastly improve the prospects of the Congress in north and southern Kerala. While many thought the Sonia factor would bring a groundswell of support to the Congress from the Christians -- who account for about 20 per cent of the population -- it did not have any visible impact on the minority community. Although Sonia's election tours in the Christian belt attracted large crowds, the average Christian do not seem to be enthused by her.

"We are really surprised by the silence," said Sunny George, a Kerala Congress leader at Changanacherry, who is campaigning for Ramesh Chennithala of the Congress.

However, senior Congress leaders do not seem to be worried about this since the Christians in central Kerala have traditionally supported the Congress. The last election, the party had ended up with five of the seven seats in the region. The Church, which usually intervenes in the election process, is maintaining a conspicuous silence this time -- its leaders, it would appear, are not unduly concerned about Sonia.

The UDF camp, meanwhile, is worried over the possibility of a poor voter turnout, considering the lack of involvement of the people in campaigning. Such a situation is perceived disadvantageous to the Congress and its partners as the Communists are capable of driving their cadres and committed voters to the polling booths under any circumstances. The UDF campaigners have, therefore, spent a lot of energy to enthuse the electorate to turn up for polling.

"People are fed up with politicians because they perceive that politics have lost morality and honesty," reasons advocate A V Mohammad Haji, president of the Kozihkode Bar Association.

The poll outcome will largely hinge on the turnout. A poor show by the LDF can cause enough headache to Chief Minister EK Nayanar since the faction headed by Politburo member V S Achutanandan is after his blood.

For his part, Nayanar has already stated that the poll outcome will be no verdict on his government's performance and he will not resign even if the LDF fails to win a single seat. Whatever the result, one thing is certain: the faction feud in the Communist Party of India-Marxist will be aggravated in the days to come.

Elections '98

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