NEWS
VIEWS
INTERVIEWS
CAMPAIGN TRAIL
ISSUES '98
MANIFESTOS
OVERHEARD
POLLING BOOTH
INDIA SPEAKS!
YEH HAI INDIA
CHAT
ELECTIONS '96

Leadership problems plague BJP in Gujarat

V Gangadhar in Gandhinagar and Ahmedabad

The Bharatiya Janata Party, set to regain its clout in Gujarat in both the Lok Sabha and the state assembly elections, continues to suffer from internal dissension and the lack of a charismatic leader. These issues are certain to surface once a BJP government under Keshubhai Patel takes office in Gandhinagar.

The BJP is likely to bag between 95 and 105 seats in the 182-member assembly. In the Lok Sabha election, it could lose around 10 out of the 26 seats to the Congress. Following Sonia Gandhi's triumphant visits to the state, the Congress has set its sights on capturing between 13 to 15 seats, but this may not happen. The Congress clearly lacks the machinery to transform the Sonia enthusiasm into votes.

The BJP is unchallenged in most urban areas with the exception of Baroda. It has made inroads into the tribal areas of north and south Gujarat. The Congress is pinning its hopes in central Gujarat, where it has the support of the rural voters. The BJP also appears to have gained from the Lok Sabha and assembly elections being held simultaneously. The average voter who supports the BJP at the local level may not identify with the special issues associated with the Lok Sabha poll, and thus choose the same party for Parliament.

The BJP will certainly not harp on stability. Despite a thumping majority in 1996, the BJP government collapsed like a house of cards within 18 months of coming to power. The recent events in Uttar Pradesh has proven that despite the machinations of Kalyan Singh, the stability label did not sit well on the BJP.

Yet, the BJP is likely to win more seats because the opposition is divided and disorganised. The BJP, however, is only slightly better on the unity issue, which will last as long as Keshubhai Patel is at the helm.

The problems will arise while choosing Patel's successor. The former chief minister, who is certain to be the next chief minister, is in his mid-70s and clearly lacks the charisma and the foresight to carry Gujarat, one of India's leading industrial states, into the 21^st century. He is also plagued by illhealth. Patel owes his success to his loyalty to the Sangh Parivar (the right-wing Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh and its affiliates) and is particularly close to BJP president L K Advani.

The BJP hardliners now hold the upper hand. All major decisions are taken by General Secretary Narendra Modi, who was recently shifted back to Gandhinagar from Delhi. Modi, an Advani follower, was shunted out in 1996 as he was held responsible for the Shankarsinh Vaghela revolt. Vaghela split from the BJP, formed the the Rashtriya Janata Party, and took over the government from Keshubhai Patel. The RJP government did not last, but it certainly changed the political equation in the state.

Narendra Modi and Patel are determined not to repeat their mistakes. The Lok Sabha and assembly candidates have been chosen solely on their loyalty to the RSS and the saffron cause. The BJP's state election committee was packed with Modi's men, so much so that moderates like former chief minister Suresh Mehta did not attend its meetings.

The hardliners cracked down on the suspects. For instance, the BJP candidate who lost the 1996 general election from Baroda by a mere 17 votes was not renominated because his loyalty to the Sangh Parivar was in doubt.

In order to ensure a smooth succession and prevent a challenge by the moderates once Keshubhai Patel steps down as chief minister, Modi has already picked a successor: Rajya Sabha member Anandibai Patel. Considered close to Modi, Patel resigned her seat in Parliament to contest the assembly polls.

The BJP moderates in Gujarat are closer to the ideology and attitude of Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Unfortunately, Vajpayee has had little say in the happenings in Gujarat. When Keshubhai Patel's government fell, Vajpayee was among those who forced Modi to quit Gujarat. Modi will certainly endeavour to keep Vajpayee from interfering in party affairs in Gujarat.

While leaders like former chief minister Suresh Mehta may lack charisma, their continued humiliation could make them rallying points for the moderates. He could be joined by Kanshiram Rana, the former state party chief from Surat, who has often expressed his unhappiness over the domination of the Advani group.

Much depends on how the RJP fares in the elections. If Vaghela makes an impact, he will spare no effort to break the BJP. A shrewd and ruthless politician, Vaghela knows the Sangh Parivar inside out, having been a member of the RSS earlier.

This, perhaps, may have been the reason why the Congress broke its alliance with the RJP. Many Congressmen were nervous that the party would disintegrate if it became too close to Vaghela. During Vaghela's rule, the Congress often complained of being sidelined. The final split was caused by a dispute over one Lok Sabha seat, but that appears to be an eyewash. The Congress had already decided to go on its own.

The decision was certainly the result of Sonia Gandhi's extremely successful public meeting at Bardoli in south Gujarat. It bolstered party morale and the Congress finally came to feel that it may not be written off in the state. Subsequent meetings addressed by Sonia Gandhi were equally successful and the Congress felt it no longer needed the RJP. However, the move may yet prove costly.

Elections '98

Tell us what you think of this report