NEWS
VIEWS
INTERVIEWS
CAMPAIGN TRAIL
ISSUES '98
MANIFESTOS
OVERHEARD
POLLING BOOTH
INDIA SPEAKS!
YEH HAI INDIA
CHAT

BSP unable to make much headway in UP

Sharat Pradhan in Lucknow

In the most politically crucial state in the country, there is this conundrum that has analysts scratching themselves bald-headed.

Thus: The Bahujan Samaj Party represents Dalit aspirations to have a share in governance, both at the state and central level, that is commensurate with its percentage of the populace, right?

Further, the Bharatiya Janata Party, with its manuvad, forward caste mindset, is the antithesis of Dalit aspirations, right?

So then, how come in 1996, as many of 14 out of 18 reserved constituencies in the state were swept by the BJP? How come the BSP managed a mere two, the same tally as the Samajwadi Party? How come, more importantly, the BSP wasn't even in the running in the other areas, finishing a distant third in the 14 constituencies won by the BJP?

So much for analysis. So much, too, for the knee-jerk thinking that holds that the Dalits blindly stamp the BSP ticket.

So wherein lies the secret? It would appear that the key to the question lies in the fact that despite all of Kanshi Ram and Mayawati's claims, there is no such thing as a consolidated Dalit vote. Rather, it is fragmented -- the BSP gets a share, sure, but so does the Congress and even the BJP. And in such a scenario, the consolidation of forward caste votes in the BJP's favour appears to tilt the scales in its favour.

The history of reserved seats in the state dates back to 1952, when 12 such constituencies were earmarked in the state. This figure was increased to 16 in 1967, and to the present 18 ten years later.

From 1952 to 1989 -- with the exception of the anti-Emergency wave in 1977 -- it was the Congress that ruled these reserved roosts. In 1989, the tide turned, with that party finding itself on the losing end in 11 of the 18 seats, with the BJP, with a bag of nine, being the major gainer. The Janata Dal in that year managed to retain seven, and the Congress was left humbled with a solitary seat.

This year, say political observers, should be no different -- the BJP, perceived wisdom goes, will retain all its 14 seats, and maybe gain a couple more. In fact, it is the BSP, surprisingly, that is seen as the major loser. Mayawati is being surprisingly hard-pressed in Akbarpur, while former Congressman turned BJP candidate Ram Dhan is being perceived as having the upper hand in Lalganj.

And this situation is, as we mentioned at the outset, giving self-styled analysts reason for much head-scratching -- more so given the aggressive 'Dalitisation' of the state during Mayawati's two terms in office as chief minister.

"In fact, it is not all that surprising," says legal expert P Kant. "It is Mayawati's aggressive pro-Dalit stance that has alienated the upper class, en bloc, while failing to achieve a similar polarisation of the Dalit votes in the BSP's favour."

Realisation, it would seem, has dawned on the BSP think-tank. Else, why would Kanshi Ram, who bills himself as the rallying point of Dalit aspirations, prefer to give reserved -- and therefore, supposedly 'safe' -- constituencies a miss, and choose to contest from the general seat, Saharanpur?

Interestingly, his two innings in Saharanpur earlier only led to humiliating defeats.

It has also prompted, within political circles, the rather snide question: "Is Kanshi Ram a Dalit, after all?"

Elections '98

Tell us what you think of this report