Blasts will not make a crucial difference to poll outcome
N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras
It may be advantageous to some extent for the BJP-AIADMK alliance
in Tamil Nadu, but Saturday's Coimbatore blasts may not
have the same impact as the Rajiv Gandhi assassination in electoral
terms, according to knowledgeable sources. Indications are
that the AIADMK-led alliance, particularly its partner the BJP, may
stand to gain in 'marginal constituencies', where it had a fighting
chance on hand.
"It has certainly shocked the voters, but not as badly as
the Rajiv Gandhi assassination," says an election observer
of the Tamil Maanila Congress for a Lok Sabha constituency
in the southern districts. The constituency, like the rest of
them in the region, is going to the polls in the second phase
on February 22, and he feels, "there will only be a marginal
drift in the voting pattern".
According to DMK sources also, there will not be much of an electoral
impact from the Coimbatore blasts. "We could not even dream
of campaigning for the 1991 election after Rajiv Gandhi's assassination,
but this time round there is no political animosity or public
aversion to the DMK," says a campaign manager at the party
headquarters.
This, he attributes to the people's appreciation that the DMK
has learnt its lessons from the Rajiv Gandhi assassination, and
"will not do anything that will be politically suicidal."
He adds in the same vein: "The state government could at
best be charged with negligence, not connivance or collusion."
Also, he says, there is a clear public perception that the DMK
party and government are not behind the law and order problems
and blasts in the state, which was not the impression they
had of the erstwhile AIADMK government of Jayalalitha. "That
perception about the AIADMK has not changed even now, though at
least a section of the voters have a soft corner for the BJP and
its leadership."
Against this, however, BJP sources claim that the blasts,
of which party president L K Advani was the 'chief target' will
have a "good impact" on polling pattern in the state.
"I will not be surprised if it has some impact even in the
adjoining states, and also the north," says one of them.
But he too concedes that Advani's off-the-cuff remarks in the
immediate post-blast scenario might not have gone down well with
all sections. "The people have not as yet come to identity
the DMK with lawlessness as they did with the AIADMK regime."
What, however, has come as a boost for the DMK-TMC campaign at this
hour of crisis is the reaction of superstar Rajnikanth. Returning
from his Hong Kong holiday on Sunday evening, he addressed a hurriedly-convened press conference at night,
condemning Jayalalitha's leadership of the AIADMK, and asking
his fans not to use his name to seek votes for anyone but the
DMK-TMC combine.
More importantly, Rajnikanth asserted that Muslims as a community
would not want to target Advani, as it would not serve their political
purpose. But there might be some "thorns" in the community
which they better remove.
"Some interested political parties in the state are out to
create problems for the DMK-TMC combine, and use it to get the
DMK government dismissed. If such events are repeated, there
will be a 'revolution' in Tamil Nadu, and I will take on the challenge
directly," he declared.
Rajnikanth's interview has since become the mainstay of the DMK-TMC
combine. It is being aired at regular intervals on Sun TV, owned
by the Karunanidhi family.
"But Rajnikanth has been sourly misled by his TMC-DMK friends,"
says the BJP source. "He has not understood the mood of the
masses, nor of his fans." The youth, who constitute most
of Rajnikanth's fans, are all in favour of the BJP forming a stable
government at the Centre. Even if they are against the AIADMK
at the state-level, they have a different perception of the BJP
and national-level politics."
In this context, he says Rajnikanth has not made that fine distinction
that his fans have already made. "He was subtle but sure
about his preference for the BJP at the Centre, and for the DMK-TMC
combine in the state, when he issued a statement before emplaning
for Hong Kong last month. But in his hour of confusion, he has
been blind to the changing political scenario at the ground-level,
and has been absorbed wholly by his anti-Jayalaliahta perception."
"This," says an AIADMK headquarters official, is "sure
sign of the party staging a comeback." Adds he: "Rajnikanth
seems to be getting clear signals that 'Amma' is on her comeback
trail, and has given vent to his own personal fears and frustrations."
Yet, he too concedes that the Coimbatore blasts may not alter
the voting pattern much, as "most voters have already made
up their mind, and there will only be a marginal change, which
need not necessarily affect the results."
Elections '98
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