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The Rediff Special/ Amberish K Diwanji

Last chance for the Third Front

Last month's election to four state assemblies has virtually rung the death-knell for the so-called Third Front.

The fight in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan was between the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress, other parties and Independents mattering little. Only in Mizoram did the Congress lose to a third party, the Mizo National Front-Mizoram People's Congress alliance.

Between them, the Congress and the BJP cornered 92 per cent of the 586 seats that went to the polls. In Rajasthan, for instance, which has a long tradition of voting for strong independents, the non-Congress, non-BJP parties and Independents accounted for just 22 per cent of the votes. In Madhya Pradesh, they won still less, 20 per cent, and in Delhi, a dismal 18 per cent.

Loosely, the Third Front is planned, once again, as a conglomeration of non-Congress, non-BJP parties. In its earlier avatar as the United Front, it formed the government in New Delhi, though it was kept alive only with Congress support. But after its drubbing in the March 1998 general election, the various parties in the UF have been in disarray, torn apart by political compulsions, ego clashes, and personal ambition.

The message that the Indian polity is heading for a bipolar system appears to have dawned on the parties. The Congress, flush with its new-found success, has ruled out pulling down the BJP-led government, declaring that it prefers to wait for the coalition to collapse on its own. Translated, this means the Congress is not keen to take the support of sundry other parties in forming the next government.

"The Congress actually wants elections right now, that is why they are not interested in pulling the BJP down," says Amar Singh, Samajwadi Party general secretary. Reason: "The Congress feels there is a pro-Congress, anti-BJP wave which will benefit it if elections are called right now. All this talk of not pulling down the BJP is nonsense: they have never hesitated in doing so earlier. Not only did they pull down the UF, earlier they pulled out from backing Chandra Shekhar and Charan Singh."

When the winter session of Parliament began on November 30, many non-Congress Opposition parties raised hell in the Lok Sabha, demanding the BJP's resignation. But the unwillingness of the Congress to join in the ruckus took the wind out of their sails, leading an MP to comment: "Looks like the Congress has joined hands with the BJP."

The Congress is acutely aware of the pitfalls of forming a coalition government supported by temperamental politicians like All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham chief J Jayalalitha who has a long list of conditions, most of which would be difficult to meet. Jayalalitha is facing a slew of corruption charges and the Supreme Court has cleared her trial. Few parties would dare interfere with the judicial proceedings now, given the court's hawk eye.

Moreover, if the BJP with 179 members in the Lok Sabha has been so badly bruised by its allies, the Congress with just 134 might be in a worse position, notwithstanding promises of 'unconditional' support. The memory of the Congress's betrayal of the UF is still fresh; many erstwhile members of that front might be tempted to take revenge at an opportune moment.

Hence, the Congress would prefer a fresh election. Moreover, a delay gives it time to revive its fortunes in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, the most crucial states in an election.

But for the Congress to return to power, it has to win back the support of the very sections that today vote for the Third Front parties: Muslims, dalits, adivasis, and the other backward classes. This means a turf war is certain.

The Third Front parties have already woken up to the threat and the need to recreate their identity or face annihilation. Ram Vilas Paswan of the Janata Dal has warned that the Congress is seeking to destroy the third front, and any delay in recreating the front will be disastrous. He also flayed the Communist backing for the Congress.

The Communist Party of India-Marxist, which is hell-bent on ousting the BJP, has promised all-out support to the Congress, a move that has created major fissures within the Third Front.

Explains CPI-M Politburo member Prakash Karat, "The fact is that today there is no Third Front. The Janata Dal, which led the United Front, has disintegrated, and it will take time for all these parties to again come together. The Left is taking the initiative in bringing them together, but it will take time."

The CPI-M's position is that in case the BJP falls, it would be willing to support another government (led by the Congress) from outside. "We are willing to support an alternative government, but we don't want to lose our identity. We have our differences with the Congress on economic issues."

Paswan says it was the unwillingness of the Third Front constituents to take an independent stand on many issues that destroyed their identity. Worse, they helped the Congress by echoing its views.

While the CPI-M's base in Kerala, Tripura, and West Bengal is relatively secure, the other parties lack that comfort. And fear of losing its base has forced the Samajwadi Party to declare: "Both the Congress and the BJP are equally evil and we will have no truck with either."

The SP has been urging the Congress to pull down the BJP government and take charge, promising it support from outside. The Congress is not biting.

"Actually, we are grateful to the Congress for giving the Third Front an impetus," says Amar Singh. "Their arrogance and statements after the polls of getting back the support of the minorities, dalits and adivasis and not needing the Third Front's help have bestirred us into action."

The CPI adopted a resolution after the polls declaring that it was of utmost importance to rebuild the third front. Yet, general secretary A B Bardhan too cautions that the front is far from being born. "Rather than just create a front after the polls, as happened in 1996, which remains inherently weak, we must work together on issues and then move ahead in forming the front," he suggests.

"Even within the Third Front, there are major differences which must be resolved. And the front will not be born by us leaders sitting in Delhi, but by the workers and people in the states where such parties exist and who have to come together. This will take time," explains Karat.

Janata Dal president Sharad Yadav rules out the formation of a Third front in the near future. "It will take about five years," he says. "It will happen once the people get fed up of the BJP and the Congress, and the parties that support them then unite into a Third Front."

As Yadav pointed out, today, there is no front but just a third force comprising numerous parties spread all over the country, most of which are regional or caste-based. He admitted that if a snap poll is called today, the Congress will gain the most, but warns that the Third Front parties should not be written off. "The Third Front tends to coalesce during elections or times of crisis," he says. "Another election now will again give a fractured mandate with the Congress as the largest party."

But do these parties have the time they seek, or will a delay only help the Congress? A look at the recent election may provide an answer. For all the opprobrium heaped on the Third Front, it must be pointed out that it has never had a strong presence in the states that just went to the polls. Rajasthan and Delhi have always been the battleground of the BJP (or its earlier form, the Bharatiya Jan Sangh) and the Congress. Only in Madhya Pradesh has the Third Front had some presence. But even here, most of this support accrues to the Bahujan Samaj Party (many regions of the huge state are dominated by the scheduled tribes), which backed the Congress this time round.

"The Congress won handsomely in these three states because they have no third front presence," argues Yadav. "The states where Third Front parties are present will not fall into the Congress lap so easily. And even if the Muslims return to the Congress, which the party is claiming but is by no means certain, it will not be enough to win sufficient seats. They have to win back many more sections, a difficult task."

Adds Karat, "The Muslims today vote for security, for the non-BJP party most likely to win. This happened to be the Congress in the states that had elections. But in states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, or even in the south, where the third force is strong, there is no surety that the Muslims will back the Congress."

Amar Singh backs this argument. "The fact that is ignored is that in the assembly by-election in the other states -- Bihar, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh -- the Congress lost. And it also lost the Lok Sabha by-poll in Bharuch, Gujarat. So what are they trumpeting about?"

Singh also claims that in Agra, where the Congress came second to the BJP, the Samajwadi Party was never a strong force. "We have always come third in Agra, even in 1993, when the SP and BSP were united. Agra actually proves that the Congress has not yet recovered in Uttar Pradesh."

But a big problem with the Third Front is personality clashes. Mulayam Singh Yadav, Kanshi Ram, Ram Vilas Paswan, et al have differences galore, and appear to dislike each more than they do the Congress or the BJP. Thus, the Janata Dal is against the Rashtriya Janata Dal of Laloo Prasad Yadav; the SP and BSP hate each other's guts; the CPI-M is at loggerheads with the Telugu Desam Party; and so on.

An example: when the Centre sought to dismiss the Bihar government of Rabri Devi, Paswan openly backed the move even as all other Opposition parties condemned it. It was enough to earn the RJD's wrath, and any attempt at reconciliation will be difficult.

But it is not impossible. The fact that various parties are speaking about uniting, fearing for their very survival, is a step forward. There is a sense of urgency and fear, though not yet sufficient to overcome their animosities.

"It will happen soon. If Mulayam and Laloo, who were against each other till a year ago, can get together, why can't the others?" asks Amar Singh. "We are willing to ally with any third front party now, even with the BSP."

Whether the front's rebirth will be enough to pose a challenge to the BJP and the Congress is far from certain. But if it doesn't happen this time, the Third Front will almost certainly be consigned to the dustbin of history.

Assembly Election '98

The Rediff Specials

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