Commentary/Vir Sanghvi

Offered an opportunity to become a national leader, Deve Gowda has remained a small-time Karnataka politician

Matters have been precipitated by the new Congress president Sitaram Kesri's loathing of the prime minister. Kesri says that Deve Gowda is not prime ministerial material (fair enough), that he has wasted too much time touching Narasimha Rao's feet (fair enough, again) and that the best prime minister would be none other than Sitaram Kesri (well....)

The Congress president is 80. If he wants to be prime minister, he can't afford to wait very long. He needs to make his move soon. By April 1997 at the latest - and perhaps even earlier.

Kesri is smart enough to know that nobody will back him if he unilaterally pulls the plug on Deve Gowda. So, he will wait for three things.

One: more squabbles within the UF so that Deve Gowda's position is weakened from within. Two: the point of no-return for the Left. At this rate, the CPI-M will have attacked this government so much by next March that it will be in no position to support Deve Gowda against any threats. And three: a genuine national crisis.

Of these, the third is the most difficult to predict. But past experience has shown us that crises suddenly emerge and that if a government has little public support (and Deve Gowda must be the least impressive prime minister in recent years), then it seems extremely vulnerable.

The moment these three conditions are fulfilled, the Congress will withdraw support in the 'national interest'. The BJP will be unable to form a government as will the UF (under another leader) without the Congress support.

Eventually, the desire to 'fight communal forces' will lead everyone to the Congress where Kesri (who will have got himself elect CPP leader by then) will reluctantly agree to move into Race Course Road in the name of secularism and the weaker sections.

Naturally, the Left will not be pleased. The CPI-M will push for another leader. But by then, nobody will be willing to listen. Kesri will say that the CPI-M can only support the Congress; it cannot dictate the choice of leader. Others will accuse the Left of crying wolf too often.

Moreover, the Congress will seem a much stronger party by then, Madhavrao Scindia is already back. The Tiwari Congress is about to return. And the TMC-DMK MPs would rather switch to a Congress government (if the TMC hasn't rejoined by then) than risk losing office. A grouping of this strength will not let the CPI-M dictate terms to it.

Of course, Deve Gowda will try and avert such a course of events. He has already begun calling on Kesri and is distancing himself from Narasimha Rao. But this alone won't make a difference.

His best hope of averting a coup is to perform better and to convince the country that he is prime ministerial material. If that happens then Kesri will find it difficult to topple him.

But judging by the last few months, Deve Gowda is as capable of doing this as he is of designing a rocket to Mars. To put it bluntly, he is simply not up to the job. Offered a great opportunity to become a national leader, he has remained a small-time Karnataka politician.

And unless that changes, he will be swept away by the Congress's lust for office.