I was speaking with R Balakrishnan of Centrum Finance, a long-time market watcher. He had two things to say of interest. One is that analysts have stopped commenting on the quality of accounts and management. And perhaps this is the wake-up call we've been waiting for.
Then, his working of price rises over the last 35 years. Since 1974, he said, a clerk's salary has gone up 16 times, a cup of tea by 40 times, taxi fares by seven times, a movie 40 times, Mumbai's vada pav 24 times and petrol, only petrol, only 2.5 times. And a home, guess what, an astounding 90 times.
For some time, I have been thinking the only way to do a fully legit real estate deal was to buy property from the big, listed company because I could pay all white and get a clean loan. I could also be sure about the quality of construction, land title and so on. But hang on. Turns out that the seemingly infallible big boys have problems with their books. And what kind? Well, the oldest-in-the-book kind.
Investment banker Credit Suisse has reportedly gone through the balance sheets of a few realtors and claims that DLF, India's largest realtor, has no transparency in its land acquisition process. Interesting.
Also, says Credit Suisse, "Promoters have privately-controlled entities from which DLF buys land." The report adds that DLF, where key related parties included 245 subsidiaries, 12 partnership firms, 12 JVs and 124 entities under the control of key management personnel, had outstanding receivables from promoter entities of Rs 1,940 crore (Rs 19.4 billion) as of March 2008. Phew.
And then it says, of DLF and Unitech, the other real estate major, that they have departed from conservative accounting practices. The two companies recognize revenues on a percentage of completion method even where the cash receipt is yet to become due and they also capitalize on interest expense during the construction of project.
Almost simultaneously, the Income Tax Department announced a special audit into DLF's accounts for allegedly trying to lower its tax liability by understating the sales for 2005-06.
A DLF spokesperson told the Press Trust of India that special audits were routine and that 2005-06 was the first year in which the PoCM method of accounting was first introduced as an Accounting Standard by the Institute of Chartered Accountants.
Does this mean that firms like DLF and Unitech are built on thin air and accounting jugglery and there is little else to go by? Actually, far from it. Both companies have blazed incredible growth trails in the property industry. Moreover, they've brought legitimacy to a business which represented the worst of necessary evils. And yes, they popularised the phrase 'land bank', one of those quaint terms whose utility will soon fade.
What the Credit Suisse report really means is that this was always an industry where you could not build your book like a car company or a consumer products company. How do you account, for instance, all the pay-offs made to local thugs to evict squatters from land on which, by the way, you have a genuine title?
And yet, amazingly, the world at large, including equity analysts, seemed to believe this was one of those dream sectors where supply shortages would ensure perpetual growth. Which is fine. And why then are the same analysts dumping real estate stocks after the Satyam episode on grounds of poor 'corporate governance'? Surely, land, unlike edgy employees, cannot walk away.
Maybe like so many other sectors, the dream is gone, the song is over. But how is it that (my first grouse) an industry that is so non-transparent by definition is convincing everyone that the problem in slowing housing sales is to do with interest rates and not the ridiculous prices - 300 to 400 per cent over 2004 rates.
Second, let's first assume the industry cannot be blamed if there are fundamental problems with land acquisition, titles and government interface. And yet, why is it that it's only now our analyst community is waking up to discover corporate governance gaps?
Third and thus forth; the amazing disconnect between corporate representation and the real world. Show me one person who has not been demanded of and perhaps paid a black component in a real estate transaction, anywhere in India, in his or her lifetime.
Indeed, there are such individuals, but they must be part of a lucky 1 per cent or thereabouts. But then do you know how many square feet your home really is? Well yes, if you get down on your knees with a measuring tape, else I guarantee no.
Does this rant solve the basic challenge of inflated asset prices? No, and the builder lobby is not to blame alone. The problem is perhaps a collective refusal to accept that we are still in an overheated economy and will pay, or continue to pay, a stiff price as it unravels further.
Second, like in so many other sectors, balance sheet unravelling, abrupt discoveries and findings a la Credit Suisse usually signal the end of a sectoral dream run.
At least for now. Does this mean the housing sector will collapse? Of course not, it's only the stock market love affair that is going sour. So just wait for prices to get better. And by the way, the only thing that's perhaps not changed from 1974. We had a Mrs Gandhi in control then too.
