The fact that the Congress won underscores what should be a rapidly increasing belief that it is the only entity that can hold the Centre together, and there is more to gain from partnering with them than holding out for some Third Front. The BJP, of course, is over - it will be interesting to see what Narendra Modi does now.
In any event, there must already be a stream of interest in the Congress from venal regional politicians, who want to secure at least their short-term future. As a result, it is an excellent bet that the Congress will lead the next coalition government as well. And Soniaji is smart enough (and Rahul is young enough) to know that Dr Singh should continue as its Prime Ministerial face.
This, plus the fact - or certainly my hope - that he has improved his poker game, suggests that we could be on the cusp of the Real Second Wave of Reforms. And with the inflation scare abating - oil has fallen to a more reasonable $120 and the monsoon seems back on track - and even the global crisis showing signs of exhaustion, we could get back to our almost 10 per cent growth track pretty soon.
Of course, there's work to be done. The initial list being bruited about is pointed firmly in the right direction. Indeed, the financial sector has several ready-made plans waiting to be implemented.
Infrastructure is on an OK track - hardly a desirable pace, but it is moving, and, as the financial sector reforms get under way (notably the creation of a term money market), we will see this sector accelerate as well.
The two areas where we have to do the most work are agriculture and security. Everybody talks about how important agriculture is to India, but I haven't yet seen any comprehensive analysis of what ails Indian agriculture and what we need to do to change that - a Percy Mistry or Raghuram Rajan report on Indian agriculture.
It is more than time for an exhaustive and recommendatory analysis. And there is a perfect candidate to drive this initiative - Nachiket Mor, who now heads the ICICI Foundation, has the sensitivity and smarts to put together a real and realisable plan. Cmon, bhaijan.
Turning to security, it is a crime that hundreds of Indians have been dying because our politicians have been too busy securing their own positions. Now, that the Congress knows - or should know - that it can act as if it has a majority, it is absolutely time to come up with a comprehensive review of the Indian police. They are underpaid, overworked and demoralised. Changing this is a big job, but absolutely critical for India to take a leading role in the world.
Markets, of course, will still be wobbly. The great global credit crisis sits atop us like a monsoon cloud, threatening to flood us with a torrent of terror every now and again. But, like the monsoon, it, too, will pass, and, while the US economy may remain somewhat subdued, I think we have reached (or are very close to) the bottom of the global equity cycle.
With foreign investment interest growing again, the domestic market will, of course, jump back earlier, but it's hard to tell whether it will be tomorrow. The rupee - back to the same story with a few variations. Its basic strength, driven by a strong capital account, will reassert itself in time, and the RBI may have to return to managing the rupee's strength, as opposed to its recent weakness. It would seem reasonable to assume that it has learned the hard lesson that preventing rupee strength spills over into inflation, which is still far, far, FAR away from any semblance of acceptability.
Of course, volatility will remain high - there are simply too many imponderables, political and otherwise. So, the RBI will have to use its intervention judiciously. However, since we have - mostly - lived through a 10 per cent range for the rupee over the past three months, it is hardly likely to get worse.
Indeed, and here I hearken back to the unblemished optimism I bayed about till the markets turned. My line then was: In India you can buy any asset at any time at any price, hold it for two (or three) years, and you will make an excellent return. So, if I am right and you had bought the Sensex in January 2008 at 21,200, it should rise to 33,000 by January 2010 or 41,000 by January 2011 to give a (good) return of 25 per cent.
Hmm...both sound terrifying, but without question correct on direction.
