In five years' time wine consumption in India would have grown from 600,000 to 28 lakh (2.8 million) cases, and the industry's size to over Rs 2,000 crore (Rs 20 billion), driven by continuing growth in disposable incomes and changing lifestyles.
With the states of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Punjab having followed the Maharashtra model of 'liberalising' rules regarding production and marketing of wine, the number of wineries will increase from 25 to nearly 100. And vineyards of wine grapes will have grown from 1,500 acres now to nearly 15,000 acres.
An increase in competition would have lead to falling prices of reasonable-quality wine and the consequent increase in the consumption of domestic wines to over 2 million cases.
Sales of imported wines, too, would have grown from 100,000 cases to over half million as customs duties were progressively reduced.
And foreign direct investment in this industry would have grown from a paltry $3.5 million in 2005 to over $100 million as multinational beverage companies strove to invest in what was fast becoming the low-cost wine producer of the world, and NRIs sought to emulate the California lifestyle 'back home' and set up 'boutique' wineries near Bangalore, Hyderabad and Pune.
Wine bars will have proliferated, thanks to a new rationality amongst the authorities, who were now increasingly aware that wine was a low-alcohol product that was farmer-friendly and good for health.
This would prove a boon for consumers at two ends of the social spectrum: at the top end, for the European-style restaurants, which were quite happy to serve wines with their food, and at the bottom end where bulk wine offtake served to provide a lifeline to the many small wineries dotting the viticultural landscape.
Both the quality and the packaging of wine would have undergone changes. The top-end Indian wines would be retailing for upwards of Rs 1,000 per bottle; at the bottom end would be a proliferation of wines at Rs 50-150 (which would constitute over 60 per cent of the market).
Wines would be available in 'bag-in-the-box' packaging (2 and 3-litres) in all metro cities. An increasing number of quality brands would start using the screw cap closure (in preference to corks) as people realised the benefits concerned.
Exports of Indian wines would have multiplied in two directions: one of quality wines seeking to establish their identity, the other of bulk wines supplementing the cost of international brands - the latter coming from 1000-acre vineyards using mechanised farming techniques and mega-wineries each producing over 5 million litres wine annually.
Consumers would most certainly have become better informed and sophisticated, but also more confused by the proliferation of wine brands. Like in the West, this would have led to the growth of wine ratings and wine guides.
There would be many more people writing about wine, and perhaps a 'wine guru' (or two) would emerge - acknowledged experts in wine making and wine tasting, to whom the junta referred and deferred in all matters vinous. There would be more publications devoted to wine - with the venerable Sommelier India (established in 2005) leading the pack.
Wine clubs, too, would have mushroomed in many more cities (apart from Delhi, Bangalore, Chandigarh and Hyderabad), providing a forum for wine appreciation and understanding - and a bit of drinking. Driven by technology, consumers would be better networked, and a tiny but growing section better informed about brands and prices.
I see a great future for the wine industry in India: it's early days as yet, and the sooner you invest here, the better. Go to it, chaps - cheers!
