'If Dr Singh becomes the PM he will unify the country. It is good for the markets. The best bet would be the technology sector", says Ramesh S Damani.
pk : Hi! Damani ji based on new coalition formation, its policies/plans, recent sharp moves & massive FII sellings, may i request you to analyse and advise on fresh equity investments with a horizon. Thanks, ur views are always enlightening.
Ramesh S Damani : Hello, everyone. Thanks for joining.
I think if Dr Singh becomes the PM he will unify the country. It is good for the markets. It seems the best bet would be the technology sector.
Raghunath : Sir, dont you think the huge sell off is due the over brought condition rather than any statements of the left parties.
Ramesh S Damani : Monday's fall was due to that, I am sure. Bad technicals and not fundamentals.
superman : sir, do you think after yesterdays fall that we have enetered a bear phase
Ramesh S Damani : If the market remains below 5000 for the next few days it would be. However, it looks like we will open with a gap.
powerplay : sir i have purchased goldiam @ 38.cani avaerage upwards & upto what level ?
Ramesh S Damani : Resutls were good, and the dividend payout was handsome. I think they will do well and the stock is attractive. I own it.
HiDamani : PLEASAE TELL ME ABT HINDUJA TMT . I M REALLY GETTING PAINS BCOS OF THIS. I KNOW THIS IS A GOOD STOCK BUT I PURCHSASED AT 340 AND IT IS AT 144 NOW.WHAT ARE ITZ LONG TERM PROSPECTS FROM NOW ONWARDS. IS SOMETHING WRONG WITH THIS COMPANY
Ramesh S Damani : I think at 144 it represents an attractive valuation. I recently bought some.
nriinv : Yesterday carnage on the market is a lesson to all politicians that nobody is willing to take their nonsense, sometimes arrogance is important to teach a thing or two for the policitians.
Ramesh S Damani : Clearly the markets sent a message.
shashi : Dont u think that the fundamentals of the story in ONGC and GAIL hold good even now except that the further divestment is to be discounted ??
Ramesh S Damani : GAIL seems okay to me. I am not very enthusiastic about ONGC due to its huge overhang.
xxx : How is earlier recommended stocks like Opto, Balaji at this time??
Ramesh S Damani : Looks okay to me.
nriinv : Mr. Damani, all of them are blaming Hedge funds and FII's, and SEBI says they will keep a watch on anybody manupilating. Can SEBI keep a watch on the big mouth of the Left parties. Instead of reassuring the investing public the Left parties are getting at the previous government at the cost of the stock market. You must be knowing that foreigners don't know to read between the lines, they are programmed to believe completely what politicians say. Either they will invest or they will not invest, they will not wait for lobbying with governments. For them there are so many countries to invest in. Can the Left be given some training to shut their mouths up specially in this media hounding world. Probably they should go to China to learn a thing or too.
Ramesh S Damani : Many people share that sentiment about the Left. However, they are our elected representatives and the SEBI is in fact answerable to them and cannot terms dictate to them.
vikas : last time also , i requested you that tech sector , where would you like to take entry
Ramesh S Damani : Infosys and Tata Elexsi look good to me.
skk : ramesh still people have a hitch but that these left parties will not allow govt to function considering all these that govt. may fall down in 3-6 months time what retail investors should do
Ramesh S Damani : I think that is a risk, however, I don't see any immediate problem.
SHUBHANKER : sir!!!! ARE WE STILL IN BULL MARKET AFTER SUCH LOSS IN MARKET?
Ramesh S Damani : If market closes above 5000 it means that we have averted a bear market.
vvinay : sir,current conditions are similar to one witnessed after 9/11 so now in next few weeks can we expect new ideas like of geometric/e-serve/cmc/engineers/bel/beml etcwhich you had given after the crash
Ramesh S Damani : Markets are still too volatile and testy to give new ideas. Tech as a sector looks good to me.
nriinv : Mr. Damani, you know in the west people create wealth in the stock markets, can we dream of such a day in India. Professionals not falling in the domaain of stock market should have the confidence to invest.
Ramesh S Damani : Remember professionals lost a lot of money in tech shares in 2000. Markets require discipline.
VIVEK : Sir I was watching CNBC and they said marc faber is bearish on india .Any specific reason?
Ramesh S Damani : He thinks the market was overbought.
skk : after all these and bolld bath of 2-5 days certainly few scripts will be looking more attractive to you than others might be old one ar new slots - pl. let us your views with which scripts do u suggest is the best of lot
Ramesh S Damani : Generally the most liquid scrips move up in this phase. That you could see today.
baracuda : do yu also feel that at this stage some amount of portfolio churning is required and one should increase his weigtage in tech,how does logix micro look in all this carnage
Ramesh S Damani : I think in that category I would like to look at Kale, results will be poor for FY- 04. However, I like the space they are in.
VIVEK : Please tell abt BALAJI. I am heavily invested in this.Thanks in advance
Ramesh S Damani : Results and dividend are due shortly. Let's wait for that. I still own it and I like it.
BASANTMAHESHWARI : Did you see the ICICI report on ONGC they fear that the company would report a loss in 2007. Beats me though. My apprehension is why do these reports come only after the stock tanks by over 30%. ALso a few weeks back you were calling ONGC a bell weather stock.My call is for most of the non dividend yeild PSU's the story might be uncomfortably getting overYour take
Ramesh S Damani : No one can predict election results and CPM statements. If NDA had come back it would have been a bellwether as it was showing. However, over time is does not remain an attractive investment.
VIVEK : WONT TATA ELXSI BE AFFECTED BY APPRECIATING RUPEE? WHATZ THE TIME FRAME IN UR MIND FOR TATA ELXSI?
Ramesh S Damani : It is a young growing company with a yield. Also rupee seems to have stabilised.
sanujkadavil : sirhow would you rate winstars( marc fabers company) buy on ub holdings. do you think he is intereted ubs property business, do you think he will increase stake in ub holding . the scrip ahd no damage in the recent melting..
Ramesh S Damani : Let me send him an e-mail and I will tell you next week.
Siva : GAIL has almost touched the upper circuit sir...what must be the reason behind ?
Ramesh S Damani : The price of 110 made no sense to me. Obviously someone agreed.
vikas : Suppose we enter in bull market as per your theory then would you liquidate most of your portfolio or would like to wait for long term
Ramesh S Damani : If we are in a bull market we should not be in a great hurry to liquidate.
SHUBHANKER : SIR DO YOU HAVE CHECHKED THAT AFTER GETING TOP OF 6250 WE ENTTERED IN BEAR MARKET ? AS MOST OFF THE STOCK ARE FALLEN BELOW 200 MOVING AVRGEES, AS IT IS CLEAR INDICATED THAT STOCK ARE IN BEAR PHASE MOV AVRAGES ARE SHOWN WEAKESNESS AFTER STOCK ARE BEING WEAK ON CHARTS...
Ramesh S Damani : Tisco broke the 200-day average. The rest just did yesterday. Let's hope they have recovered by today.
BASANTMAHESHWARI : Are you aware that a few large operators (you know them) are heavily short in tata steel & reversed positions by buying gail etc yesterday.
Ramesh S Damani : I don't buy these theories
powerplay : sir what levels should kale be looked at ?
Ramesh S Damani : At current levels or after the results come out.
sanujkadavil : sirhow would you rate marc fabers investment in ub holdings. have you gone through the news, got my mail?
Ramesh S Damani : Yes. Let me talk to him and come back.
nriinv : Today Mr. Damani I saw CNN International going live to Mumbai stock exchange to know where stock markets are headed, imagine the last time they did that was after NYSE opened after 9/11.
Ramesh S Damani : Yes, they were discussing it on CNBC Kudlow and Kramer too. We are in the world's attention.
powerplay : sir wheer do you hunt for stock ideas,,please tell,please tell
Ramesh S Damani : Start by reading and developing a hypothesis.
VIVEK : SIR , EARLIER U WERE VERY SURE WE R IN BULL MARKET, NOW U R LOOKING SOMEWHAT DOUBTFUL.SHOULD WE CONSIDER THIS AS A TAKE AWAY FROM THIS CHAT?
Ramesh S Damani : No, if the market falls 20% from peak it is a bear market. Let's hope it recovers. In that case we have dodged a bullet.
anaam : Sir,BEL is also in PSU space.Now that PSU is bad word,would you still advise to stay invested in BEL(avg cost 220/sh)??????
Ramesh S Damani : We will see who the defense minister is and what policy the Congress follows as far as the PSUs are concerned.
vikas : Do u think oil sector ( refineries too ) should be exited from the portfolio as well as Banking / Your call on SBI specially
Ramesh S Damani : It is getting lumped with other PSUs and hence have fallen sharply.
reddy : Ramesh S Damani answers, no, if market falls 20% from peak it is bear market. lets hope it recovers. in that case we have dodged a bullettI some how don't beleive in this 20% theory, becuase every thing in stock market happens for the first time.
Ramesh S Damani : It may well be.
BASANTMAHESHWARI : The left has said that it would like the Govt to " tax services" My inference is that these could mean software. ARe we discounting that possibility?
Ramesh S Damani : I doubt they will tax exports.
skk : sir top 6250 20 % from that 5000 which we have already reached. If the index doesnot come above 5000 then till what time u feel there will be problem
Ramesh S Damani : The next few days.
VIVEK : SIR I REALLY WANNA KNOW ABT TISCO.PLEASE TELL UR VIEWS KEEPING 1 YR TIMEFRAME IN IND
Ramesh S Damani : The stock has been hit badly. However, Q4 results will be good and the dividend payout would be excellent. My sense is that it will recover.
shashi : Yesterday on the CNBC show u seened to be doubtful of the bull trend for the first time since the last 2 years. Do u breathe easier today after the relief rally ?? Or r u still skeptical ??
Ramesh S Damani : The rally was expected. However, if Index stays above 5000 I think we could have dodged a bullet.
MKS : Now in this situation what is latest information about the listing of NDTV
Ramesh S Damani : Tomorrow.
BASANTMAHESHWARI : Manish Chokhani (of Enam) is terrific with his thooughts since you came a couple of times on NDTV with him do you know that he is very bullish in retail and if so did you get a chance to discuss this sector with him .Please answer?
Ramesh S Damani : Enam did the placement for pantaloon.
VIVEK : CAN U SUGGEST SOMETHING MORE ABT TATA ELXSI. I WANT TO PURCHASE IT KEEPING 1 YR TIMEFRAME IN MIND.
Ramesh S Damani : I have not visited them yet. Let's wait. However, I recommend an initial investment.
BASANTMAHESHWARI : The possibility of defence tie ups with Us is also under the hammer. WIll this affect BEL and the others
Ramesh S Damani : BEL and BEML.
reddy : Would you stillfeel we are in BULL market. would you not discount the following.?????1)intrest rise in US.2) Oil prices rising.
Ramesh S Damani : Bull markets climb the wall of worry.
vikas : What could make market above 5000 levels. To me there are lot of negatives in the pipeline 1. Govt. policies 2. Monsoon ?3. Budget ?4. Fed rate hike ?5. US Election It seems we have seen the top for this year . what do u think
Ramesh S Damani : You could book profit around 5100, which we may see tomorrow. Bull markets climb can overcome these worries.
nriinv : Mr. Damani I know you have stayed in the States, when you compare life in States don't you feel that India has progressed a lot in every field and the biggest problem is how to increase the performance of our politicians. We cannot just elect them and wait for 5 years to elect somebody else. They should at least on yearly basis give their performance card and compare with targets set for him.
Ramesh S Damani : That is a nice thought but impractical. Also in the US the house is re-elected every 2 years.
SUDHIR : SIR I WATCHED YOUR PROGRAMME ON CNBC ABOUT YOUR BULL RUN THEORY. ACCORDING TO YOU WE ARE IN THE 2ND PHASE OF BULL RUN. BUT AFTER YESTERDAYS FALL DO YOU THINK YOUR THEORY IS CORRECT
Ramesh S Damani : If the market does not recover in the next few days, no.
SHUBHANKER : SIR AS A FRIEND I ASK YOU ONE THING THAT IS SUCH TYPE OF ANTI BULL MARKET ACTIVES DOES EFFECT YOUR CONVICTION????
Ramesh S Damani : No, I have studied history and in the long run markets are weighing machines. Cream rises to the top.
SUDHIR : SIR, WERE YOU ABLE TO EXIT BEFORE YESTERDAYS CARNAGE
Ramesh S Damani : No, I remain well invested and yesterday was a shock but does not shake my conviction in equities.
shashi : I dont know why so much fuss is made of Left influence ? China is a Left state, yet see the quantum growth ? Indian economy is mature enough to grow and reform inspite of the Left. What do u say ??
Ramesh S Damani : The Left is still stuck in history.
BASANTMAHESHWARI : Since you have no exposure to broadcasting companies in media would you not buy into NDTv if it lists at around 70 (m cap 400 crs) and alos tv 18 at current levels. I bought some tv 18 at 155 yesterday and also today. NDTV is under loss presently but take a look at tam ratings they are giving aj tak a run for their money.
Ramesh S Damani : I think your choice of TV18 is a wise one and they will do well. NDTV also deserves a look.
SONIA : IN CASE WE FALL BELOW 5000 AND REMAIN AT 4800 FOR A FEW WEEKS, WHAT DO YOU SAY, WE STARTED A NEW BEARISH PHASE?
Ramesh S Damani : Yes, by technical definition.
SUDHIR : SIR PEOPLE LIKE YOU & RAKESH RJHUN INCITE PEOPLE TO INVEST IN EQUITIES BUT HISTORY HAS IT THAT SMALL INVESTORS ARE LOSER MOST OF THE TIMES. YOU PEOPLE TIME YOUR EXIT NICELY & IT IS US WHO SUFFER. DONT YOU FEEL A MORAL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR IDEAS & SUGGESTIONS
Ramesh S Damani : That allegation is unfair. Markets are too big for any one to control.
SUDHIR : CHANGE IN GOVT. DOES NOT CHANGE THE OUTLOOK OF A SECULAR BULL RUN WHICH YOU ARE SAYING FOR THE LAST 1 YR. YOUR TAKE
Ramesh S Damani : Yes, but if the market stays below 5000 we have to revisit our views.
nriinv : " Sell in May and Go Away" Somehow this has not happened in world markets.
Ramesh S Damani : It has in the Asian markets.
VIVEK : SIR , CAN'T U ALSO TELL PEOPLE TO EXIT UR IDEAS SOMETIMES..... BCOS AS U URSELF SAY, ITZ MORE IMPORTANT TO EXIT THE MARKET AT THE RIGHT TIME RATHER THAN ENTERING.ALSOIF I MAIL U SOMETIME , WILL IT BE FINE WITH U?
Ramesh S Damani : I do tell people to exit from time to time. However, I cannot reply to individual e-mails.
SUDHIR : SIR DO YOU FEEL THE MARKET TO OPEN WITH A HUGE GAP TOMORROW ON THE POSITIVE SIDE IN VIEW OF THE RECENT POLITICAL CHANGES AND ASSURANCE FROM THE GOVT.
Ramesh S Damani : If Manmohan Singh becomes PM candidate
yes.
anaam : Sir,Even in bear markets certain script moves a lot.Say in last bear phase we made profits in BEL,Infotech Enter,Geomertic etc So bear & bull is just a space in mind,It depends upon your individual skill to make profits even bear mkts???????
Ramesh S Damani : It is much easier to make money in the bull markets.
Thanks all and lets hope Dr Singh becomes PM tomorrow. Markets would welcome it. Thanks and good-bye.
