The initiative taken some time ago at Islamabad of establishing a South Asian Union may seem far-fetched, but not impossible.
The idea is gathering momentum with serious efforts being made by both sides, especially by the Pakistan foreign secretary and mandarins of the Indian external affairs ministry to find a solution to the protracted conflict and work towards a union as envisaged earlier at the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation summit.
Forging an alliance of south Asian countries shouldn't be difficult, if one considers the situation in other parts of the world where cooperation between countries seems to be the mantra.
But it will be possible only if the major partners in the alliance set aside their minor and major political differences and look beyond their spatiotemporal interests.
India and Pakistan will be the key players in any south Asian union. At the last Saarc summit, the two showed tremendous enthusiasm and cooperation.
For the first time, Kashmir, the bone of contention between the two, figured only as a passing reference in the discussions, indicative that both countries are serious and sincere in their efforts to form a union in which everybody will benefit.
Even Pervez Musharraf's recent address to Pakistan to put an end to terrorism bears testimony to his efforts of forming a union of south Asian countries.
Besides, the steady proliferation of regional trading arrangements, such as the European Union, the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Association of South East Asian Nations, is bolstering the fact that there is more to benefit than lose from such a union; each of these trade blocs has or is flourishing economically and strategically compared to its earlier stages. In such a scenario, the formation of a south Asia union should be encouraged as creating a win-win situation.
In today's interdependent world, economics has assumed much more significance than politics or realpolitik. Therefore, a south Asia union should be regarded as a welcome step in the all-round attainment of economic prosperity, cultural integrity and political stability of the region.
Gains will be immense from such a formation compared to the certain resistances or stumbling blocks that one visualises. Let us analyse the gains first.
South Asia has a great potential in terms of knowledge capital, natural resources and rich cultural heritage. All these can transform the region into a huge economic powerhouse when there is movement of free trade and people and promotion of cultural exchange and tourism.
Economic gains will assume awe-inspiring proportions as tremendous opportunities in terms of trade expansion exist among the countries. Consider how intra-regional trade has been growing -- from $ 1.2 billion in 1980 to over $ 7 billion now, and indications are that India-Pakistan trade will cross $ 10 billion within five years of free trade agreements in the region.
This clearly shows that the region is set to benefit from this unification. Integrated markets and economies will also make south Asia an attractive destination for foreign investment.
Unrestrained flow of goods, services, technologies and investments would create millions of jobs, and in the process south Asia's chronic problems of poverty, inequality and discrimination will be tackled to a great extent. Human development indices will simultaneously go up.
Second, the subcontinent's political stability and cultural contiguity, which has been shaken by fundamentalist forces over the past several decades, can be reawakened. This can lead to the evolvement of a composite culture in the region by which the region as a whole will be adequately equipped to keep the fundamentalist forces at bay.
Third, inter-state conflicts arising out of border trade between the countries will come to an end. Intra-state challenges such as the growing menace of terrorism, ethnic conflicts and sectarian violence can be handled in a more efficient way.
The huge expenditure on maintaining security forces at the border can be reduced and the same financial resources can be utilised for development of the region. This can forge better unity among the states and lead to the kindling of a democratic spirit and pro-developmental mindset among the people.
Fourth, an economically powerful, politically stable, harmoniously and strategically compact south Asia will be able to curtail any kind of divisive and pernicious influence exerted on it from outside.
No "big brother" will find it easy to meddle with its internal affairs and exploit the situation arising from weaknesses or differences. The region will develop into an attractive location for economic prosperity.
Fifth, India stands to gain significantly. It is already a big power in the region; with a union, it will have the collective economic and strategic weight of south Asia behind it to bargain and play its legitimate role effectively in world affairs.
With a large base of well-trained, English-speaking professionals, and a developed services sector, it will witness resurgence of trade and commerce and develop into a real commercial hub of the region.
Now, to the stumbling blocks in the way of a union. Kashmir is, of course, the major obstacle. The present environment is not at all conducive for forging such an alliance but efforts are on to find a long-lasting solution to this problem. Terrorism is the biggest danger the world faces today.
A balanced, concerted effort, therefore, by the south Asian region is required to curb this menace. Kashmir is a political problem and needs to be solved politically.
Another major resistance could be the issue of open border. When India's security is being undermined by transborder terrorists and millions of illegal immigrants, many feel that an open border will only aggravate the problem. The fear is that refugees from Bangladesh would swamp India, economically and culturally.
The road to a south Asian union will not be smooth. The region is infested more with regional deprivation, fundamentalist forces and appalling social problems such as poverty, illiteracy and unemployment.
All this can be overcome only when a strong political will is backed by genuine regional interests. After all, remember that the gains in the formation of a south Asia union would outweigh any losses.
The author is a faculty member at the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade.
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