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CMIE pegs real GDP at 3.1 %

Stating that production of foodgrains was expected to decline by nearly nine per cent and that of non-food crop by five per cent, CMIE said real GDP growth had never reached five per cent in a year of agriculture decline in the past 30 years.

"The prolonged slowdown in private investments, a constrained financial sector due to the fear of rising non-performing assets in banks, a lacklustre capital market and a near bankrupt government limit the chances of an escape for slowdown in 2002-03," the economic thinktank said in its monthly review of the Indian economy.

CMIE said there is still no appreciation of the impact the drought conditions will have on the growth this year and added that 15 per cent fall in kharif output cannot be covered by growth in the rabi season, which is expected to be flat at about 102-103 million tonnes of foodgrain production (as against 100 million in 2001-02).

The kharif production of foodgrains this fiscal is down by 20 million tonnes and that of oilseeds by 1.5 million tonnes, it said and added sugarcane production and cotton output dropped by 6.6 million tonnes and 2.8 million bales respectively.

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