Search the Internet           Tips

Samvat 2056: When rosy forecasts went for a six!

The Money Bureau

Samvat 2056 year has ended on a weak note for the market, with the Sensex losing 19.5 per cent to close at 3743 points. This year saw the market reaching an all-time high level of 6150 points in February and then fall sharply from those levels.

Just a few months ago, many a pundit had said that Diwali would take the Sensex to the 6000-point mark.

If it wasn't for the performance of the new economy sectors of technology, media and telecom, the market would have been languishing at much lower levels.

Investors are also more educated this Diwali; they know the difference between a good company and a bad company. But this lesson has been expensive as many have lost money. The polarisation, especially in the new economy stocks, has become starker with management quality and sustainability of earnings growth being the new mantras. The old economy seems dead.

We bring you a sample of the top winners and losers of Samvat 2056. This list is culled from the stock price comparisons of last year's muhurat trading (November 7, 1999) and October 25, 2000. On both days, 731 shares were traded. The advance to declines also shows portrays a grim picture - 131 stocks gained ground, 598 stocks lost, while two remained at the same level.

Have a look at the major gainers - Himachal Futuristic, Infosys, HDFC Bank and Aftek Infosys are some stocks that have gained phenomenally. On the other hand stocks like Fujitsu ICIM, SQL Star, Infotech Enterprises, Cybertech Systems have been major disappointments.

Among the major losers are the old economy stocks that have borne the brunt of selling not only because of poor performance but also because money was shifting away to the more attractive TMT sectors.

The market has also been extremely volatile. The Sensex saw a movement from 4,650 to 6150 and from there it dropped down to 3,800 levels and again moved up to 5,050 levels and it is only downhill from there.

The last couple of sessions the market has seen a fair amount of stability with the Sensex not closing below the 3,600 level. Players feel that the market has found a temporary bottom of 3,600. But, no one is willing to stick his neck out and say it has bottomed out.

Last Diwali (November 7, 1999) was the beginning of a new bull market for the next five months. The Sensex had also just corrected in the week preceding Diwali, having lost nearly 1000 points from its peak of 5150 points in October. Will this Diwali bring a similar recovery?

THE WINNERS

Company	Oct 25, 2000	Nov 7, 1999	Gain (%)
Hinduja Finance	168.2	23.65	611.21
Shyam Telecom	247.85	49.75	398.19
GV Films	43.05	10.4	313.94
Himachal	1149	333.1	244.94
ICICI Bank	115.75	35.2	228.84
Amtek Auto	140.4	45.05	211.65
HDFC Bank	243.05	95	155.84
Aftek Infosys	985	397.15	148.02
UTI Bank	37.95	16.6	128.61
Elbee Services	73	32	128.13
Bombay Dyeing	118.55	52.8	124.53
SSI	2152	1053	104.37
Gramophone	576.55	287.5	100.54
Cyberspace Infosys	141.4	71.48	97.82
Moser-Baer	331.1	172.85	91.55
Global Tele	1070	562.25	90.31
Wipro	2322	1230	88.78
Framatone Connectors	199.5	106.05	88.12
HDFC	461.1	254.95	80.86
Infosys	7246	4043	79.22

THE LOSERS

Company	Oct 25, 2000	Nov 7, 1999	Loss (%)
SRG Infotech	0.65	10.05	-93.53
Sriven Multi-Tech	33.75	193.35	-82.54
Fujitsu ICIM	118.85	607.85	-80.45
KEC International	11.75	59.4	-80.22
Onward Technologies	125.8	628.25	-79.98
SQL Star	40	197.05	-79.70
Infotech Enterprises	212.85	1016	-79.05
Transchem	8.75	40.75	-78.53
RCF	5	21.25	-76.47
Excel Industries	75	316.6	-76.31
Cynamid Agro	59.5	243.95	-75.61
Cybertech Systems	56.65	230.62	-75.44
Zuari Industries	20	79.9	-74.97
Aventis Cropsciences	181	642	-71.81
Wartsila NSD	88.85	305	-70.87

Money

Market Trends

Tell us what you think of this report