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Foodgrain shortfall cause for concern

The Economic Survey has expressed its concern about the shortfall of four million tonnes in foodgrain output for 1999-2000, accounting for 1.9 per cent of estimated production, but adds that the February rains have brightened prospects for the rabi crop in the northern states.

The survey estimated that foodgrain production this year was 199.1 million tonnes compared to 203 mt in 1998-99. The overall growth in the sector was likely to be only 0.8 per cent compared to a growth of 7.2 per cent last year. This was in contrast to the resurgence witnessed in the sector during 1998-99 which saw the figure touching 203 mt, creating a 5.6 per cent growth over the previous year.

While the rice production was likely to be marginally higher at 87.5 mt, the wheat production was likely to go down to 68.7 mt from 70.8 mt and the coarse cereals 29.2 mt from 31.5 mt.

The rainfall for the country was above normal during the period October to December 1999 and 96 per cent of the area experienced normal rainfall.

The highest deficiency of rainfall was in the areas of Saurashtra and Kutch which suffered 58 per cent shortfall.

Orissa suffered the worst loss of human, live stock and crops in nine districts due to the cataclysmic cyclone. There were floods in Bihar, West Bengal and the north-eastern states.

Due to the weak monsoon in Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, and western Madhya Pradesh, the oilseed production suffered because of moisture stress.

The survey advocated creaton of a single national market, removing all inter-state movement restriction for farm products by the state governments and phasing out of export restrictions to help the farmers.

It also favoured higher investments in rural assets and argued that the higher growth could be sustained only if agriculture and allied activities grow at an average annual rate of four per cent.

The policy framework must encourage and channel public expenditure towards supportive infrastructure including roads and irrigation.

There was also a need to revamp and revitalise the rural credit system to put it on a firmer footing.

On the oilseeds front, the survey estimated that the groundnut production in the country for 1999-2000 was at 5.9 mt against 9.2 mt in 1998-99.

The production of rapeseed, mustard and soyabean, which occupied a commanding position in terms of total production, was estimated at 6.1 mt, 6.5 mt respectively against 5.8 and 6.9 mt last year.

Total production of nine oilseeds would also be low at 21.6 mt compared to 25.2 mt in 1998-99.

The cotton production was expected to be marginally lower at 12.1 million bales compared to 12.2 million bales the previous year.

On the sugarcane production, the survey said that it had come out of cyclic aberration and would post a record production of 315.1 m t for 1999-2000 against 295.7 m t the previous year.

This might push up the sugarcane production from 15.5 m t achieved from October 1998 to September 1999. If next year's production touched a record 16.5 mt, the domestic availability and the prices could remain stable, it noted.

Dealing with animal husbandry and dairying, the survey stated that India had become the largest producer of milk in the world and the milk production in 1998-99 was expected to be about 75 mt. The country accounted for 57 per cent of the world's buffalo population. The sector also provided for 9.8 million regular employments and 8.6 million subsidiary jobs accounting for five per cent of the workforce.

The livestock contributed 74.7 million tonnes of milk, 30.2 billion eggs, 45.5 million kgs of wool, 4.42 million tonnes of meat and 5.26 tonnes of fish during 1998-99. The export earning from livestock for 1998-99 was Rs 19.25 billion compared to Rs 7.92 billion in 1996-97.

On agriculture research, the survey said some important technologies, developed by the national agriculture research system through an extensive system, were instrumental in achieving food security in 1970s.

Also, important technologies provided high yielding varieties. In the fast changing global context, managing the change by converting weaknesses into opportunities was important for India. The ICAR had prepared a Vision for 2020 to meet the needs of a fast-changing global context.

India had emerged as a major exporter of basmati and non-basmati rice. The international trade in agricultural products is increasingly being dominated by quality concerns and human health.

It was important to pay attention to hygiene and processors/ manufacturers must meet the international standards.

UNI

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