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Jain TV exit poll finds BJP slipping in UP, MP

An exit poll conducted by Jain TV, a satellite channel owned by former Bharatiya Janata Party MP Dr J K Jain, indicates that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance has lost ground in Uttar Pradesh in the fourth round of polling yesterday.

The situation is similar in Madhya Pradesh where the BJP is likely to lose seven of the 30 constituencies it won in 1998, the poll predicted.

But the poll has good news for the NDA in Bihar, Orissa and Himachal Pradesh where it is ahead of the Congress and its allies.

The fourth phase survey covered the views of about 5,500 voters in 30 representative constituencies across the nine states that went to the polls yesterday.

While in Bihar, the NDA is expected to succeed in further eroding the base of the Rashtriya Janata Dal of Laloo Prasad Yadav, the exit poll predicts that the party will maintain its dominance in Himachal Pradesh and gain ground in Orissa.

According to the survey, in Uttar Pradesh, an acute 53 per cent anti-establishment sentiment against the Kalyan Singh government appears to have harmed the BJP. Added to that is a massive feeling (61 per cent) of dissatisfaction against the outgoing members of Parliament from the BJP.

The BJP, which appeared to have lost six seats in the third round in the state, is heading for a further loss of four seats in the fourth round, the poll says. And if the Bahujan Samaj Party was the major gainer in the third round, this time the Congress will get the benefit of the loss of BJP votes.

The Congress has not only been able to snatch the BJP's votes, but also the votes of all other parties, receiving a massive 15 per cent swing in its favour, which may raise its tally by five seats.

Of the 15 per cent swing, the BJP is contributing 5 per cent, mainly the upper-caste Hindu votes, the Samajwadi Party 7 per cent, mainly of Muslims, and the BSP 3 per cent, mainly dalit votes in western Uttar Pradesh.

But though Mulayam Singh Yadav's party appears to have lost votes to the Congress, it will manage to retain most of its seats. The exit poll predicts that the Samajwadi Party will lose only two seats, indicating that the Muslims voted to a plan to ensure the BJP's defeat.

Wherever the Congress was strong, they voted for it. But wherever other parties posed the main challenge to the BJP, the community shifted its loyalty and voted to send the saffron brigade packing.

In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP appears to have lost four more seats in the fourth round. Of the 38 seats for which elections have been held so far, the party is likely to lose seven to the Congress, leaving it with just 21.

In Bihar, however, the RJD-Congress combine is likely to be drubbed in the northern part of the state as well. Till now the area was a stronghold of the RJD. The improvement for the NDA comes mainly due to the presence of Ram Vilas Paswan and the Janata Dal (United).

In Himachal, though there is resentment against the outgoing MPs, the pro-government sentiment has overshadowed it, the exit poll says.

In the north-eastern states, the Congress retains its pole position with even former Lok Sabha speaker P A Sangma failing to counter its appeal.

UNI

ALSO SEE:
NDA needs just 37 more seats for majority, says DD exit poll

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