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Surjeet meets Jaya to discuss post-poll scenario

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

The post-poll scenario started evolving on Monday with CPI-M general secretary Harkishen Singh Surjeet calling on AIADMK chief Jayalalitha at her Poes Garden residence in the city.

By the admission of both, they held preliminary discussions on the possibility of a Third Front emerging at the centrestage of national politics.

Surjeet was in Madras purportedly for an eye-test at a famed ophthalmic hospital in the city, and used the occasion to hold talks with the CPI-M's new-found national ally.

The talks became significant in the light of the Marxist stand of the BJP-led NDA not obtaining an absolute majority in the 13th Lok Sabha, and the AIADMK's feeling that its Congress ally may not make it to the victory-post either.

"The two leaders foresee a deadlock of the 1996 kind, where they expect non-Congress, anti-BJP parties to wrest the political initiative all over again," says an informed source. "And they discussed the modalities of such a formation."

However, in the absence of any real figures to go by, it had to be confined to "preliminaries and possibilities". Jayalalitha too later left for Hyderabad, on a post-poll sojourn.

The AIADMK is hoping to be the single largest party from Tamil Nadu, and possibly the second largest grouping in the non-Congress, non-BJP camp, after the Left. "Should it happen that way, and should a Third Front government become a reality, Jayalalitha is bound to demand her pound of flesh. It could be something as important as deputy prime ministership for herself, or the all-important defence portfolio for the AIADMK, or both."

As this source points out, the defence portfolio for the AIADMK will help the party nail its political adversaries like incumbent George Fernandes, as also the BJP leadership, on the Kargil issue. What's not known, adds the source, is the possibility of India going in for "massive defence purchases in the next four or five years, running to thousands of crores of rupees. That should make the defence portfolio even more attractive".

Sources in the ruling DMK, however, pooh-pooh the AIADMK claim over seats. According to them, the NDA would win 30-35 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats from Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry. "That should give us a better bargaining power within the NDA, beginning with the allocation of portfolios."

Indications are that the DMK may seek an important portfolio, like finance, "but that will depend on our own tally, and that of the NDA in the state, vis a vis the BJP's dependence on the allies", says the source.

DMK sources, however, concede that the party leadership had to beat a hasty retreat at the beginning of the poll campaign, after pushing the BJP-MDMK allies into a corner. "By signing off a separate, secret seat-sharing deal with the PMK ally, thus ensuring a strong presence for the DMK in their common northern stronghold in the state, chief minister and DMK chief Karunanidhi also sought to marginalise the BJP-MDMK allies, by denying the latter more than three seats in their common southern base," the source recalls.

Obviously, the DMK had hoped to win more seats in the company of the PMK, expecting the BJP to win its seats from the rest of the country. "With the MDMK and the BJP thus marginalised in the state, and the NDA forming a government at the Centre, the DMK hoped to be the second largest member in the NDA at the national-level in the post-poll scenario, demanding portfolios of its choice. The DMK's idea was to try make the TMC-led Third Front the rival force in the state, by pushing its own allies into a corner."

What however upset the DMK's calculations was the coming together of the Lok Shakti, Samata Party and the Patel-Paswan faction of the Janata Dal, to form the United Janata Dal-U. "With this single stroke, the Hegde-Fernandes leadership of the JD-U has succeeded in pushing themselves into the second slot. If the BJP leadership was upset over their 'aggressiveness', the DMK was even more upset."

However, the DMK sources add that the party leadership may now project the NDA victory in Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry, as that of a combine akin to the Janata Dal-United. "The DMK may also refer to the BJP allotting ministerial berths to the AIADMK leader of the Tamil Nadu alliance after last year's poll victory, and seek a similar treatment. Else, it would argue that that the Janata Dal-U is as non-existent as the NDA in Tamil Nadu."

It's this move of the JD-U, the sources add, that was behind the DMK leadership taking a sudden interest in the electoral chances of its BJP-MDMK allies at a later stage, and Karunanidhi too campaigning vigorously for all NDA candidates in the state. Witness the posting of state transport minister T Kiruttinan as the NDA poll in-charge for native Sivaganga -- after he had spoken in favour of TMC nominee and former Union minister P Chidambaram winning the seat all over again -- and Kiruttinan putting his heart into the BJP campaign for the seat.

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