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No Kargil wave in Punjab

Neena Chaudhary in Chandigarh

With barely 10 days left for polling for the 13 Lok Sabha seats in Punjab, the state appears to be heading for triangular contests at most places. Though Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee has an impressive fan club, his journey from Pokhran to Kargil has not generated a 'wave' in favour of Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party alliance candidates, many of whom are fighting with their backs to the wall.

In the February 1998 general election, the Akali-BJP alliance bagged 12 seats. The only other seat was won by then prime minister Inder Kumar Gujral, who bagged Jalandhar with Akali support.

The Congress was routed -- it drew a blank for the first time since the post-Emergency general election in 1977. This was followed by the installation of the scion of the Patiala royal family, Captain Amarinder Singh, as president of the state Congress unit.

The change of guard in the Congress sparked off a series of incidents, highlighting the bitter factional struggle within the party. Many veterans including former chief minister Rajinder Kaur Bhattal have given Captain Singh some anxious moments.

The campaign for the forthcoming election is being conducted against the backdrop of the split in the Shiromani Akali Dal and bitter factionalism among the Congress rank and file.

Since the last Lok Sabha election, the Akali Dal has undergone major changes following bitter strife between Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal and then Shiromani Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee president Gurcharan Singh Tohra over the Khalsa tercentenary and other panthic issues.

Coupled with the allegations of non-performance and non fulfillment of poll promises, the All India Shiromani Akali Dal headed by Tohra -- who is in alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party and has a seat adjustment with fringe Akali groups and the Bharatiya Kisan Union -- has succeeded in giving the ruling alliance sleepless nights.

Tohra, who spearheaded the campaign for the Akali-BJP alliance last year, charges the prime minister of having ignored Punjab, especially the Sikhs. He also accuses Badal of corruption and nepotism.

In 1996, the Akali Dal in alliance with the BSP won 11 out of Punjab's 13 Lok Sabha seats. The alliance came apart immediately, following which the Akalis entered into a coalition with the BJP, romping off with a landslide victory in the 1997 assembly election.

The ruling alliance now faces a formidable challenge from a dissidence ridden, yet resurgent Congress, which has formally aligned with both the Left parties, the CPI and CPI-M. The success of the Congress-led alliance depends on the manner in which it articulates political debate around local issues and capitalises on the anti-incumbency factor.

The most important factor expected to dominate this election is the division of votes. It appears the success of any candidate will depend more on factionalism in the opponent's camp than the performance of one's party. The division of the Sikh votebank and Tohra's capacity to gain a considerable base, even if not a winning one, could determine the Congress success. The reverse could also be true -- Congress factionalism may help either of the Akali factions.

After coming to power in 1997, the Akali Dal began to assert its political autonomy and began to dictate an agenda. By the end of last year, the Akalis had departed from the 'People's agenda' of peace, communal amity and reconstruction of the state.

While peace was maintained "at all costs", the factionalism and struggle for religious-political hegemony during the 300th Khalsa anniversary led to a process of competitive display of religiosity and revival of the assertion of the Sikh identity issue by the rival Akali factions.

As the BJP preferred to remain a spectator, Akali factionalism has proved to be a major setback to communal amity, and resulted in the process where the Hindu community began to drift away from the ruling alliance.

Meanwhile, the chief minister who seems to be caught in succession politics, has focussed his attention on the Faridkot constituency, which is represented by his son Sukhbir Singh.

With the anti-incumbency factor coming into play against the state government, the Akali-BJP alliance is now banking heavily on the prime minister's image, the post-Kargil euphoria and the foreign origins of Congress leader Sonia Gandhi.

This may be the first time that Badal's party has no issue of its own. On the other hand, the Congress is attempting to take up local issues, which its leadership terms as "real" and concerning the daily life of the people.

The chief minister faces criticism of pursuing a dole oriented politics to "buy" votes. By giving bounties to one section and failing to live up to the promises to others -- like the abolition of octroi -- he has alienated the urban business community.

Badal, who gloated over presenting a largesse of free power and water to the farm sector, could not come out with a single scheme to deal with the stagnation of the agricultural economy, which has been highlighted by suicides by farmers in the state. During his regime, the crisis regarding the falling production of cotton and storage of paddy, remained unattended.

While other weaker sections have been sore over being left out in the distribution of dole, Badal's much acclaimed Shagun scheme for the marriage of girls from the scheduled castes -- where the government gave a gift of Rs 5,000 -- also has had negative impact. It resulted in fake marriages or marrying off girls who are still underage.

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