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'Poor monsoon will hit the market badly'Mumbai, May 27, 2003: 'With no sign of the divestment process picking up, and in the absence of any good trigger insufficient monsoon will have a bad impact specially on sectors like FMCG and cycles,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.Bhavana : Should I hold on to Mcdowell and shipping corportion Ramesh S Damani : Hello everyone. Thanks for joining. Let's start. I would hold on to Mcdowell and sell SCI when it will be around Rs 80. baracuda : sab and shaw wallace seems to have turned the tables on vijay mallyashaw wallace has appreciated 32%but ub beer after hitting 100is on a steady declineshould we shift to shaw wallaceand are yu still bullish about the liquor industry Ramesh S Damani : On the face of it, I don't know the details. It seems the shareholders in Shaw Wallace have got the short end again. In UB you control the operating business and it is a steal at current valuations. I own both the shares. narayan : what do u think of tech share falling like pack of cards i have 500 tata info at 165 should i hold it or buy at lower level Ramesh S Damani : They are - money is rotating out of the tech stocks into banks etc. However, a slam like this creates opportunities. I think the company is re-gearing and I would be patient. I own it. mayurdamani : I want to ask you about Logix Microsystems and Compudyne Winfosystems. I know that the management of these two small companies are good and they are having some good client list. Can I buy at the present low prices when everybody is agains the software stocks. I just wonder how people are ignoring the once favourite software sector? People in the stock market have very short memory. What do you think Sir? Ramesh S Damani : I like Logix of the two that you have mentioned. However, I would wait for a more attractive price. The company is unlikely to give dividends. ajay : which are the macro trigger that can change the macro direction of market in next three years and push the sensex beyond 6000 Ramesh S Damani : It would have been divestment. At the current time I can't see any great triggers like that. vikas : As IT / ITES is out of flavour , do u think we should sell e serve / geometric Ramesh S Damani : Out of flavour yes - but the opportunity is great. I would hold on to them with the knowledge that they will under-perform for 3-6 months. narayan : WILL KOTE VISIT LAST WEEK BE BENEFITTED TO TATA HONEY HAS HE GIVEN ANY ORDER TO THE CO. Ramesh S Damani : I am trying to find the details Log in next week. tigershark : although oriental bank of commerce is apsu bank its fundamentals are like that of a private well managed bank dont yu see higher valuations for this bank Ramesh S Damani : I am not as enthusiastic as my other broker friends on OBC. maha : Damaniji, on 5th Feb, 03 Chat show, while replying to a question on SBI, you held the technical view that once it crosses 330-350 level it will double in no time. Sir, now the scrip reached that 330-350 band, do you still feel it has the chance to double/shoot up to higher levels? I am holding 300 shares. Please advise. Ramesh S Damani : I think it can. It is cheap compared to its peers. If the PSUs are going to lead the bull market then SBI can still double. I own it. narayan : DO U HAVE ANY IDEA OF BALAJI TELEFILMS Ramesh S Damani : I was very impressed with the results particularly the tax paid of 33 CRS. Growth will be slow this year but investors can buy some at current levels. I own it. tigershark : in 2-3yrs time do yu see all state govts lowering the exise duty on beer and liquor and having an uniform rate throuout india if this happens we should all have made alot of money Ramesh S Damani : Deregulation of the liquor industry is inevitable. It will happen. The stocks are cheap so there is no risk if the prices do not happen. AnandBhatt : Good afternoon Sir,How are you?Sir,why is Geometric falling so much?Anything negative that you know of? Ramesh S Damani : The appreciating rupee against the dollar and the tech malaise. vikas : Is Macmillan or Tata Info is better bet at present Ramesh S Damani : McMillan. I own it. tigershark : are yu ready to accept the fact that the smart money was not in ites or bpo but was elswhereand yu did miss the bus this time Ramesh S Damani : That is correct it was in banks and Indian pharma. vikas : If ITES will underperform for next 3-6 months , why dont you sell e-serve and geometric type now and enter at lower levels. Look at Geometric it has come to 340 levels Ramesh S Damani : Generally speaking it is hard to time the marekt. You could miss some great stocks trying to time them. narayan : I SAW ALLIANCE PORTFOLIO IN EVERY PORTFOLIO THEY HAVE BHARTI & TRENT IN LARGE QUANTITY WILL U PREFER TO BUY IT Ramesh S Damani : They have potential. However, I have not bought any at the current time you. maha : sir, MOSCHIP SEMICONDUCTOR TECH. HAS RELEASED 3 CHIPS AND ANOTHER 3 WILL SOON BE RELEASED, WHICH WILL TAKE THE CO. INTO LIKES OF TOP CHIP DESIGNING CO.S IN THE WORLD. DO YOU SEE ANY UPSIDE? Ramesh S Damani : I have not followed the company recently. AMAR : sir i have a major holding in tisco should i sell it or wait for the first quarter result? Ramesh S Damani : Results should be good, however, steel prices are a bit soft. AnandBhatt : Sir,Tech malaise is fine,its a sentiment that can change.But Re/dollar,is not a sentiment.Everyone sees the ruppe strengthening over the next 1 yr.So how is it goood for Eserve,Geometric.Pls advise Ramesh S Damani : They should be hedged in the current year. Till 46 no great problem. Beyond that it would be a problem and make the shares less attractive. Management has to work on improving productivity. ajay : what will be the effect of poor monsoon on market and which sector will be most effected Ramesh S Damani : It would be bad. It would affect FMCG and motorcycles in particular. vikas : AGAIN AGAIN , Why UB HOLDING fell to level of 20 from 150 around . Whta trigger you waiting for uptrend. Is a long term hold Ramesh S Damani : UB holdings traded around 30-40. 150 was a notional price. narsim : rameshji is it realistic to expect 5% increase per month on an averagein the current market scenario? Ramesh S Damani : Maybe hard to do. Markets don't work that way. Mahatma : Sir I want to buy RCF and also Arvind Mills, pl advise Ramesh S Damani : They look like good bets though I don't own either. priya : Max has been your favourite in the past. you do talk much about t these days Ramesh S Damani : The company is doing the right things. However, in this market it remains expensive. I still hold on to it. AnandBhatt : Sir Karur Vysya net dropped.Is the bank doing OK? Ramesh S Damani : Last year the stock was at 200.They paid Rs 7 as dividend. This year Rs 21 on right and bonus. You have tripled your money and made Rs 21 dividend. You figure it out. punit : sir, i want to know that in india, why infotech shares are falling down Ramesh S Damani : Mainly due to Infosys and Mastek shock. narasimha : DO U STILL THINK BEL WILL CONTINUE TO PROSPER OR DO U THINK ITZ REACHED A SATURATION POINT? Ramesh S Damani : I would revalue it. enolagay : has any body read or seen telcos reults Ramesh S Damani : Rs 299 cr was the figure I saw on CNBC. jjpandit : sir do you follow auto anciallary stock like munjal showa and lakshmi auto if u know some thing pl through some light.thanks Ramesh S Damani : Laxmi auto is cheap and doing well. mayurdamani : Sir, Can you tell me any site where the record dates for all the companies will be mentioned? Some companies announce dividends but do not mention the record dates in the Newspaper? Can you suggest me any site or Newspaper? Ramesh S Damani : Try bseinda.com or nseindia.com. They should have it. enolagay : do yu take advice from this chat imean do yu go home study arvind mills since many people have asked yu about it and then having found out that there is still agood story behind it do yu buy Ramesh S Damani : Occasionally if a new thought grabs me. After 2005 World Trade Organisation restrictions will be a boon to the textiles sector. Arvind will benefit if the prices of denim are firm. The textile sector definitely presents opportunities. jjpandit : good aftrnoon sir, this monday's business standrd has print the statement of r.jhunjhunwal-about old economty stock- this is the trailer of the bull run- i exactly remeber once he told about psu stock if this happened which stock do u see run great .thANKS Ramesh S Damani : Mr Jhunjhunwala is recommending stocks like Matrix, Lupin, IDBI, Geometric. That is market gossip. anaam : Sir,Monsanto Chemicals' Trailing twelve months'EPS is Rs 66/sh & is available @ Rs 530/ Don't you think it is cheap? Ramesh S Damani : It is cheap. I own it. vikas : Is Tata Honey on track as per projection. Are you still convinced with it and e serve Ramesh S Damani : This is agood company. However, with tech stocks falling out of favour the PE may contract. ajay : what is your opinion about construction stocks like hindustan construction,jp industries Ramesh S Damani : They are doing well. inv : How much % of cash should one be invested in the present time Ramesh S Damani : If you are young and can handle risk, then say around 75-80 per cent. narasimha : SIR IS IT REALISTIC TO EXPECT 5% INCREASE PER MONTH IN THE PRESENT MARKET SCENARIO AND ANY NEWS ABT PRIVITIZATION? Ramesh S Damani : No it is not realistic. No news about privatization. enolagay : a4-5chats back yu were asked about bel when it was 180that time yu said it was too risky to buynow it is290and yu say it will go toclose to400what happened Ramesh S Damani : Risky in terms of risk reward. If results are below expectation or the market tanks the stock could have fallen. We try and buy absolute values. In PSUs it is important to do that. Relative values are dangerous in PSU stocks. Recently I bought Gas Authority of India. AnandBhatt : One can say that the Smart money was in Indian pharma and banking and Ramesh Damani foccused on IT enabled,but a lot of times things are beyond control like stupid govt disinvestment policies,but still look at where is favourite like BEL has reached.[How many brokers made that call]Concor has been creeping up too.If the disinvestment was quicker,these stocks would have shot up like rockets. Ramesh S Damani : Thanks for the defense but you will know from experience that it is impossible to get all the calls/sectors move right. Buffett talks of circle of competence and focus on them. My circle included IT/ITES/and PSU stocks. Stick do a circle of competence and you will be okay. MAHESH : U HAVE NOT TOLD ANY NEW SCRIPT FOR A LONG TIME I THINK ITS DUE Ramesh S Damani : I recntly bought Gail and Balaji Telefilms. jjpandit : SIR PLEASE SUGGEST ONE MORE BOOK APART FROM ONE UPON WALL STREET THE 2ND STAGE READING . Ramesh S Damani : Try American Capitalist by Roger Lowenstein or Of Permanent Value. Both are about Buffett or try Investment Biker with Jim Rogers. ajay : what is the definition of good management and corporate governance Ramesh S Damani : Integrity, intellect and protecting share holder value and employees. sudipto : sir at what price did u buy Gail & Balaji tele flims ? Ramesh S Damani : Around Rs 92 for Gail and Rs 53 for Balaji. punteet : RAMESH BHAI, WHERE DO U SEE BALAJI TELEFILMS GOING IN NEXT 1-2 YEARS Ramesh S Damani : Growth will be slow this year. But the company is at a PE of 5, pays taxes and is running the industry. vikas : Should we buy Macmillan at this rate or with sentiment it can go down further vRamesh S Damani : It could but it seems attractive at current rates. arunhl : hi , What do you think about oil & Refinery sectors. Did u heared buffet has invested in chinese oil sector Ramesh S Damani : He has. This is why I bought GAIL. Buffet now controls 40% of American gas pipelines. punteet : RAMESHJI HOW ABT KARNATAKA BANK? Ramesh S Damani : The bank is cheap and on a roll. I don't own it. Thanks all for joining. See you next week. Bye |