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'I am bullish on the media sector'Mumbai, November 25, 2003: 'My picks are Balaji, Mukta and Hinduja TMT. Adlabs is also doing well,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.govind : Is Tata Investment share worth investing now @ Rs 215? for investing 10 lacs for 1 to 2 years? Ramexh S Damani : Hello everyone. Thanks for joining. Let's start. It is a cheap share and I would keep it. It has strong underlying assets. newkid : Dear sir, This must be 6th time, i have not recieved a single reply.i want to know short term, medium & long views(your) about the media sector(Related to films)? specifiaclly about mukta arts, adlab & PNC? Ramexh S Damani : I am bullish on the media sector. My picks are Balaji, Mukta and Hinduja TMT. Adlabs is doing well. I own them. anaamika : Sir,IVRCL INFRA is in the business of construction & water supply projects etc. Balance sheet is reasonably good,excellent liquidity,good line of business but I am unaware of the quality of the management..Sir, ANY IDEA ABOUT THIS COMPANY? Ramexh S Damani : No idea about the management. newkid : sir is there any way how can i know whether a particular stock is accumulated by a FI/FII & Mutual Fund? Ramexh S Damani : They publish this every month on web site, and send information every quarter to customers. BASANTMAHESHWARI : An old favorite of yours Balaji has got hike in new programme rates from Star for 3 out of its 5 programme by around 10% with effect from 1st Oct 2003. The programme Kahin Kissi Roz has also got an extension. Also 4 new programme are scheduled to be launched this quarter & two new state of art studios are ready which will improve the quality of programme and operational efficiencies. Software Library has increased to 3435 hrs at the quarter ending Sep 2003. At CMP of Rs.77 the stock is trading at 6.9 PER with the trailing EPS of Rs.11.3. At a small mcap of 400 crs and with DTH round the corner does it look VERY bullish to you in about 1 years time from now on. If so any targets I also sent you reports on Balaji Ballrapmur chini and Goldiam by mail. Did you get them. Ramexh S Damani : It is very cheap. Remember they have Rs 90 cr cash, and pay Rs 33 cr in I-T. sudipto : Sir are u convinced about the breadth of the rally in the short term? is the market going to head its southward journey sometimes now ? Ramexh S Damani : The correction seems over. I am looking forward to Sensex taking out 5000. rajraj : If in the market like this one wants to act as Contrarian, which are the Three best long term shares to buy. Ramexh S Damani : Look in the FMCG sector for the likes of Colgate, Castrol. They are out of favour. I own them. rakesh : Do u think govt.can go ahead with residual stake sell smoothly or will hit roadblock?Can they get the same premium for the residual stake as what they get by selling the controlling stake?Do u see much appreciation in the concerned stocks from their current level purely from the residual stake sell perspective? Ramexh S Damani : I think they will be done. Also I believe that Supreme Court will rule in favour of divestment of HPCL. baracuda : zodiac clothing has 7subsidiariesand another co called mayfairwhat is the rationale for this,should this stock be picked up on declinesand dont yu feel competion will be too hot post2005 Ramexh S Damani : They have merged Mayfair into the company. As a market cap of Rs 60 crs it is still cheap. baracuda : could yu please tell me wether godrej ind is the same co which makes the godrej soaps and hair dyes and oilsif so at the cii meet adi godrej said that soaps should grow by 10-12% Ramexh S Damani : No they are a separate sister company. They are in foods, chemicals, real estate and some ITES. simplify : In the FMCG sector, a non conventional pick could be Heritage Foods. Cheap, decent growth prospects, dividend yield. Any views on this ? Ramexh S Damani : Just a local milk business does not excite me. malik67 : Sir, on your advice i bought Logix Micro. what should the target price for this scrip Ramexh S Damani : These are young companies and it is hard to set price targets. Let's watch it. BASANTMAHESHWARI : Medical Toursim say Mc Kinsey will be the next hot sector by 2012 expected to grow from 1500 crs to 15000 crs APollo is the sole pick as they have displayed strong scale up capability by taking management control of hotels rather then constructing and owing them ARe you invested into it and do you advise me to incerase holdings at current prices rather then wait for 5 to 10% downside.Results looked good to me last week.Please comment.. Ramexh S Damani : Somehow I am not bullish about medical tourism from the West to India. At least in the listed sector. Infrastructure is still poor. I think Thailand will do well in it. Apllo Hospitals' results have never been great, that always worries me. rao : hi mr.damani whats your view of the market ? Ramexh S Damani : Bullish. vikas1 : Do u think it is right time to pick INFOTECH enterprises and Polaris as both are edxpected to see good result from this qtr. Ramexh S Damani : They do look attractive though I have not made any new purchases. vikas1 : Is this right time to pick Mcmillan or would you still wait for some more downside Ramexh S Damani : I don't see much downside. It surprises me why the stock does not perform. Read the recent Fortune essay on Digitization, it is the future. See what Amazon has done to digitise100,000 books Piyush : Can I invest in ZicomElectronics,Arvind Mills & Morgan Stanley Fund at current prices? Ramexh S Damani : I would prefer Morgan among the three. newkid : But Heritage Foods belongs to CM Chandra babu Naidu. Is it True . Also Cheap on PE Chart Ramexh S Damani : That is true. chan : hello sir don't you agree that the paid up value of every stock should be equal for comparative assesment of the market price else we may end up buying stock of paid up value 2/ at lower rate and ignore the stock paid up 10/ at slightly higherrate Ramexh S Damani : Investors need to do their own due diligence. vivek : e-serve and macmillan are two of my largest holdings. do they deserve to be or should I reduce my exposure ? Ramexh S Damani : Investment is a matter of conviction. You have to decide for yourself how much you believe in the ITES industry. simplify : PSU Banks - interim dividend demand from Govt. Is this good for banks since money is their basic raw material ? Ramexh S Damani : Govt is the owner and they are entitled to an opinion. BASANTMAHESHWARI : WHERE CAN ONE READ THE FORTUNE ESSAY ON DIGITIZATION THEIR WEBSITE OR..... Ramexh S Damani : Get the magazine. sandhya1 : sir ur call on EIL and BPCL hold or exitsir can i buy GE shipping at this price Ramexh S Damani : I like GE and BPCL. Not sure about EIL. NewbieatStock : sir with so many companies into Bpo and if BPO according to you is the future, which company would do well in providing infrastructure to the bpo sector. Ramexh S Damani : Tata Telecom is one. AnandBinani : sir market can take a short correction after the sett.of F&O Ramexh S Damani : I remain bullish. Keep an eye on Telco. I own it. vikas1 : Do u think Mcdowell and Macmillan fall into your GREAT ideas category. Any other counter u would like to add to these two Ramexh S Damani : Only market decides great ideas with the perspective of time. Infosys, Lever were some great ideas. Will these stocks measure up. Hard to say. Mcdowell can be great. McMillan is good but unlikely to be great., Today both are far from being great. AnandBinani : sir in cement sector Which is the best Between Acc & Guj ambuja? Ramexh S Damani : Prefer GACL. baracuda : besides telco would yu recomend ALLAT 231IT SELLS AT A PE OF15FOR2004AND MAYBE A PE OF11FOR 2005 Ramexh S Damani : They will both do well in tandem, both look good now. rameshsinghvi : rameshsinghvi says, helloo..please..please..please..give your view about ub holdings.how can the company deliver their hidden assets to share holders Ramexh S Damani : I added some today. The market is making a mistake about this stock I beleive. It has assets worth over Rs 1000 crs conservatively. anaamika : Sir,One time you were not bullish om TELCO.You were among the many sceptic about TELCO's Indica. Why did you change your view? Ramexh S Damani : That is correct. Time changes. Indica has been a success and for that Mr Tata deserves to be congratulated. maha : sir, MOSCHIP SEMICONDUCTOR TECH. - thefabless chip design & marketing co. is the only listed player. Recently in BUSINESS LINE i read that Motorola is also planning to follow the same model by selling off their china chip mfg.facility. Moshcip is also recently flared up. pl advise. Ramexh S Damani : The stock has been on a roll, however, let us now wait for some results. vivek : why do you keep recommending Morgan Stanley growth Fund ?What is so great about their portfolio ? Ramexh S Damani : They are selling at a discount to NAV. About 30%, so you are insured. The portfolio is of good quality. NewbieatStock : sir i read that the construction of the property which is going on at a furious pace, by when do u see that being completed and being rented out. Ramexh S Damani : Another 2 years. vinaydamani : can u suggest some good mid and large cap stock at current level....vinay Ramexh S Damani : Balaji and Mukta look good, I own them. yaazoo : what is ur call? same stuff , i sold some stocks at 5000 levels i think its best to book profits regularly ,learning feom the losses i got in the tech boom what is ur call on the mkt , indl stocks cadilla health hcl tech n especially mrpl and psus in oil Ramexh S Damani : That is your philosophy, I prefer to buy and hold till I believe the bull market is getting over or the valuations don't make sense, selling a stock that has gone up is not favoured by me. chan : hello which are stocks uoy have EXITED and which stocks you have discovered having great potential and enterdin Ramexh S Damani : I am getting bullish on Balaji. jj : sir please give your view to investment in marico ind in fmcg secotr can one consider safe and stedy return pick over the one year view? risk reward ratio is comfartable please. Ramexh S Damani : I think FMCG will do well. So it looks okay. simplify : Is Godrej Industries a multibagger in your estimate ? Ramexh S Damani : Too early to say. AnandBinani : Sir have u got Any idea about Nmdc? Ramexh S Damani : Generally doing well due to ownership of ore (like Sesa). It is a PSU. tony21 : when will u be on CNBC next, I dont think u realise your power but the next trading day ur picks always ZOOm, so do give us one tip now . something like a goldiam or a d link Ramexh S Damani : Don't get carried away. Those are just random movements. baracuda : dont yu see at least one more bear market beetween now and 2009that is when morgan comes up for redemptionso wouldnt it make sense to pick up morgan then and not now Ramexh S Damani : I can't see till 2009. smallinvestor : suggest something in auto component space which u hold and recommend. Ramexh S Damani : Take a look at Banco products. BASANTMAHESHWARI : The latest Mc Kinsey report on Turkey provides mind boggling reasons as to how liberalization alone cannot put the country into the path of economic growth. I am not being a contrarian but in case you get a chance read the report. It speaks about the VAT system there and how retailers avoid paying taxes and how a real interest rate of 20%+ ofr the late nineties destroyed all incentives for investment The study also found that government ownership accounted for one-sixth of the gap between Turkey's current and potential productivity. Ramexh S Damani : No it cannot. But it helps a great deal. Our domestic market is important so is our IT/ITES/pharma industry. NewbieatStock : sir would you agree that this bull market is just the begning and we could be in a bull market which would last 5-10 years provided the gdp growth is stable and the intrest rates are low, which wil force people to shift thier fd balances into the stock market, the total money of indian retail is hardly a small % of what it can be. your views Ramexh S Damani : I think that is the story, this could be a multi year bull market. BASANTMAHESHWARI : Recently Colgate has won an important IPR case. The Delhi high court has restrained Anchor health & beauty care pvt ltd. from using Colgate's color combination of red & white on the packaging of its toothpowder Are you aware of this development? Ramexh S Damani : I read this in the papers. yaazoo : so sir what is ur call when will the markets break 5000 again i sell cause i cant time the mkt peak and want to get back my cost i think i can allways rebuy the same stocks today at much lower prices and i have got more than what i expected , i had hcl tech at ipo and held on till it came to 275 then exited Ramexh S Damani : I am no expert on market timing. rakshesh : sir why do u say that it is a multi year bull market- when none of the bull markets in the past have lasted more than 2 years? Ramexh S Damani : Things change, Dow went up for 6 years without a 10 per cent correction. jj : sir one more question, which one out of three fmcg stock , marico,colgate,godrejind ?your suggestioin please Ramexh S Damani : Colgate and Godrej Ind is what I own. Godrej Ind is not FMCG. Godrej consumer is, Marico is fine. Just not bought it. rajraj : The more I look at Global Tele the more I think it is worth buying today - it is a very strong player in ITES and good in providing Newtworking infrastructure. I think at 5-6 P/E it is going really cheap. Please advice. Ramexh S Damani : I don't share your enthusiasm for the stock. vinaydamani : ramesh ji ur help on hpcl bpcl ioc and ongc....vinaydamani Ramexh S Damani : I like HP. BP and some Indian Oil. ONGC is too expensive. baracuda : wow nice to hear that yu are bullish till 2009i am really going to sleep welltonight dont yu feel that one day we i mean the crowd that comes here regularly like yu,basant anandbhat newbeta myelf,should meet it would be graet,lets try to biuld on this idea Ramexh S Damani : Sounds like a good idea. 2009 is not a statement of fact. malik67 : Any ane recommendation this week sir Ramexh S Damani : Balaji, I trade in it but it is a good investment. Shobha : Besides the stock market which are the other good investment areas Ramexh S Damani : Gold. vinaydamani : so should i sell ongc ioc at current price and enter hp bp what are chances of hp gettin disinvested according to u..and more importent when if the same happens....vinaydamani Ramexh S Damani : I would do it. Let's wait for the Supreme Court divestment. I think it will go ahead. ONGC is going to suffer from overhang soon. apy : apy says, hello sir when r u going to vanish .my last two exerience is when you go on to forgine trip here market also get lost Ramexh S Damani : No recent plans. jj : sir, i want to convey sincere thanks to get good earning money in mahavir and vardhman textile please accept my sincere thanks and help us to develope invaluable insight sir once again thanks a lot jjpandit Ramexh S Damani : Thanks. yaazoo : what sector according to u is the next sunrise for india Ramexh S Damani : I am convinced it will be ITES. rakesh : sir pls.answer which stocks hold potential for further appreciation purely from the govt.residualstake sale perspective? Ramexh S Damani : I think CMC would be a good idea. Farooqwala : Thank you Mr.Damaniji, I have followed your advise and really benefitted me - thanks ltIs there anything good scrips more to invest Mr.Damani, pls advise Ramexh S Damani : Thanks. It helps to know that. Look at Balaji Telefilms. rao : if gold is bullish, then stock-markets wud be bearish... wudn't this be correct logic ?? Ramexh S Damani : Gold goes up during inflation, which is bad news for stocks yes. However, these things may take a few years to play out. NewbieatStock : marc faber said a long time ago gold would be a great investment, compared to the nasdaq gold ratio is 1 : 33 i think and it was 1 : 1 years back, in that case gold has a lot of catching up to do, do u think the only reason gold is cathinc up is because of the terror strikes that have people feard abotu investing anywhere else. or the demand from china is also cauing a greater demand, what are the factors that you think will attribute to its high rise Ramexh S Damani : I think it is loss of faith in paper assets, particularly dollars. chan : if every onme will enter balaji in thursday i think it will reach the circuit Ramexh S Damani : It is very liquid and extremely unlikely. Make an investment not a punt at today's prices. csk : Sir,What is your view on Omax Auto? I have been asking your for a long time! Ramexh S Damani : No view at the current time. USHTI : I HAVE REL CAP, E SERVE, I FLEX & BIRLA CORP& CHAMBAL FERT ;I AM A RETIRING PRESON; PL ADVISE SHOULD I HOLD OR SELL; NO LIABILITY NOW FOR CASH;GRATEFUL FOR YOUR OPINION; Ramexh S Damani : I would hold on to them. vinaydamani : ramesh ji do u remember me i told i will chat with u n net..give some low price good quality stock which i should purchas and hold for good return and what should be my entry price in maruti i sold the stock which i got at ipo for 355 and re enter at 316 sold again at 343 when should i buy again...vinay damani Ramexh S Damani : Keep an eye on Mahindra around (21). I buy and sell it. It looks promising but I am still to finalise a view. NewbieatStock : do u think the U.S would ever consider backing its currency with gold again, its already in the dumps with the huge deficit like japan, i tihnk that and an aging population like japan will contribute to the growth of countries like india etc, how bad can we do its only uphill from here. Ramexh S Damani : I doubt they back it with gold. Farooqwala : Damaniji, Can I invest further in to Goldiam and Balaji at this level, pls advise? Ramexh S Damani : They look okay to me. rakesh : since u r confident on SC ruling in favour of HPCL so can entry be taken into that stock? Ramexh S Damani : That is my guess. NewbieatStock : sir if someone wanted to presue a career in investing, long term, what path would u suggest. Ramexh S Damani : Read a lot. BASANTMAHESHWARI : Logix Microsystems Ltd has already started the process of implementing the Izmocars product suite at all the locations of the Bob Ciasulli Automotive Group This is what I read on a site for this scrip anything else that you can add .... Ramexh S Damani : I think if they deliver it will be over the next 6 quarters, q3 and q4 will be difficult. However next year the company should be on a roll. Thanks all for joining. See you next week. Bye. |