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'It's been a tough market'Mumbai, April 22, 2003: 'It's hard to outperform the market in a bear phase. The trick is to buy good stocks and sit tight,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.HERO : mr.damani, you seem to be visionary. Before couple of session you were recommending NIIT. Do you think today's rally sustainable? Ramesh S Damani : Hello everyone. Thanks for joining. Let's start. I don't remember recommending NIIT recently. thinkininvestor : mr damani...wud u advice me to switch from IPCA LABS toKREBS BIOCHEM Ramesh S Damani : I like the prospects for IPCA. I own it. banzai : do yu think that mcmillan india can sustain a 20-25%bottomline growth for the next 2-3yrs and how big is the typsetting business globally Ramesh S Damani : I think it is possible to do better than that since the base is low. Unfortunately market has trashed the stock. I own it. MALIK : SIR, AS PER YOUR ADVICE , I HAVE RESHAFFULE MY PORTFOLIO AND ADDED TATA INFOTECH , MACMILLAN , MACDOWALLS AND UB HOLDING LAST WEEK.HOPE I HAVE TAKEN CORRECT DICISION. I HAVE TWO QUERIES :- 1) IF U HAVE TO MAKE CHOICE BETWEEN MCDOWELLS AND UB HOLDING.WHICH ONE U WILL PREFER.2)FEW MONTH BACK U HAVE RECOMMEDED ULTRA MARINE PIGMENT SHARE .WHETHER U STILL RECOMEND THAT SCRIP AS BPO COMPANY. Ramesh S Damani : For conservative investors, United Breweries over Mcdowell. However, remember to be patient. Liquor stocks are like PSU stocks a few years back. Results in ITES of Ultra have been disappoining. Let's see the latest results. Also take a look at Tata Honeywell. I own all these shares. thinkininvestor : damani.. my portfolio has no exposure to software or it enabled stocks...which wud u recommend to start with Ramesh S Damani : Clearly ITES. dasusdipto : Dear sir, i am a snall investor who has just started. I had in my hand around 1,5 lac. I want to invest those in equity with a long term view. Please advise me . I know your favourite is ites & liquor sector. But as i cant all those in this small kitty it will be very king of u to advise me some selected ones. I hold SBI. thanks Ramesh S Damani : Buy stocks with good yield and growth prospects of 15-20 per cent in a year's time. McMillan fits this criteria around Rs 130, but wait till quarter results are out. Some yield is important. PSUFan : Hi Ramesh, I had exited BEL fully at 220 but could not resist buying it today at 240. Still cheap on a PE basis, isnt it? Do you see more FII/Fund buying once the results are good and that it is one of the best performing PSU's?? Ramesh S Damani : The counter is on a roll. Remember value triumphs. Nobody would touch this stock around Rs 50-60. Company is doing well, let's ride it. I own it. BASANTMAHESHWARI : Ramesh babu take us through some of the bargain buys in the Tech/ITES sector. My list in the order of priority includes Infotec Entp and Visual soft. I want your comment on this.Visual is trading at phenomenally low P/E valuations Ramesh S Damani : I own Visual, but am not comfortable with the management. They have not delivered too many times in the past to makeit a core investment. My sense is you could trade in it. Infotech Enterprises I am more hopeful though this quarter results will be dull. I own both. AMITSBHATIA : Good Evening sir pl give me views on Castrol India should it bought at current levels ans and new stock . Ramesh S Damani : Good investment for defensive types. Growth seems to be behind it. vikas : Are you worried on BPO stocks as recent reports says Indian Companies cutting each other to gain orders Ramesh S Damani : That is a worry, but not great. E-serve, Tata Honeywell do work which is not very price sensitive. rocket : do yu feel that one should add more indian hotels if it comes to 150at the present it may have cuaght saarsannd a lean tourist seaon Ramesh S Damani : Yes. Indian tourist season is December-January and SARS should be behind us. farooqwala : Rameshji, I am NRI would like to have your advise for good scrips to buy, pls advise few good scrips to buy for short term Ramesh S Damani : Buy ITES and liquor, but with a 2-3 year view. Avoid short-term punts. Ideas are the same as always- Tata Honeywell, E-serve, McDowell and the like. I own them all. Harsha : WHAT DO YOU ANALYSE BY THE RESULTS OF MARKET CAPITALIZATION TO SALES Ramesh S Damani : Compare sales and market cap. Growth companies and companies having fancy go for 304 times sales. Old no growth companies go for less than 1 time sales. Higher the ratio more the fancy. Dipali : Good evening sir Please give me some tips on day trading Ramesh S Damani : Don't do it. PSUFan : I wonder why eserve is falling so much? Any news on that? Ramesh S Damani : Line with rest of the market. morganstanley : i now own 800mcmillaand plan to buy200moreis it the right thing to do Ramesh S Damani : I also did it. However, wait till Q1 results come out. PSUFan : Is it also worth riding on CONCOR and Engineers? Can we expect good quarterly numbers from these PSUs? Ramesh S Damani : Concor looks good. I am not very bullish on Engineers. I own Concor. AMITSBHATIA : sir pl give me some dividend yeild stocks and what should rate should we expect in % ?? pl give your advice on it ... Ramesh S Damani : Hero Honda is at 10 per cent yield. Mcmillan should pay Rs 9-10 over the next 12 months. The list is endless. thinkininvestor : national frtlizers will be divested before rcf...wud it not be better to be with national fert...at wat levels do u expect the bids to come... Ramesh S Damani : I would prefer RCF. farooqwala : If I buy TAta Honey and MCDowell at this rate, will it benefit Ramesh S Damani : No guarantees. StockLover : Is Hero Honda a possible turnaround story in the future. I am attracted to its 10% yield. Ramesh S Damani : I think it can. BASANTMAHESHWARI : Listen to this Earnst and Young reports that Bharti would have around 20 million subscribers in 2007. The average billing per user is estimated to be around Rs 800 per month or Rs 9500 per anum. This gives a sales of Rs 19000 crores. If the sales to mcap is 1 the price of Bharti should be around Rs 300. China Mobile China Unicom trade at mcap to sales ratio of more then 3 each. Please analyse this company. We would all like to get onto this bus before it leaves the station Also this sector grows at 100 % annually and stock markets pay for growth. Ramesh S Damani : The numbers are compelling. However, can management deliver? They have not exactly been shareholder friendly. Telecom market is in turmoil. ajay : ramesh bhai your view on coming satyam result Ramesh S Damani : Not bullish. Harsha : Where can I contact Mr.Arvind Joshi of Value Quest?--------------------------------------------------------------------------------HOW CAN I CONTACT ARUN KUMAR OF LOTUS RESEARCH Ramesh S Damani : This is not a directory inquiry. Sorry. kamal : E-SERVE Last YearTotal Sales : 200 croresTotal Profit : 12.8 crores Price last year : 650 approoxThis year Sales for 9 months ; 186 croreProfit : already 19 crore price : 435 Why ? Ramesh S Damani : You may have noticed the index falling badly for tech. Remember, market is a discounting machine. BASANTMAHESHWARI : What are the companies that do price sensitive jobs? Max could be one which is in the medical transcription business any other. This would help us avoid them in future Ramesh S Damani : Looks like the large caps Infy, Wipro and Satyam, especially Satyam. PSUFan : Are you still positive on the long term prospects of Infy ? I guess management needs to deliver better than they are currently doing!! Ramesh S Damani : I am unsure of it. Unless management goes back to growth, market is going to kill the stock. vimal : Sir, VIMTA LABS (Hyderabad based) declared good results and expects to grow at around 40% in the next two years. Have you looked at the scrip as promised in a chat session some six months ago. Pl. advise. Ramesh S Damani : I could not get much information on it unfortunately, so passed on it. guru : one STOCK which is showing bullish trend is moserbaer. BUT SOMEHOW THIS IS NOT YOUR FAVOURITE, ANY PARTICULAR REASON Ramesh S Damani : I can't understand the high margins they have. Also they are in hardware, not my favourite sector. Good people like it though. MALIK : Sir , I am holding Gillette Shares. whether i should sell or hold. Six month back i had asked u the same question and u adviced me to hold. Please advice now what should i do Ramesh S Damani : I am still holding mine, so let's continue to hold. SANJAY : sir this is the fourth time i am asking the question, whether to buy matrix labs and what are its prospects Ramesh S Damani : I own a small amount of Matrix. They are doing well. However, they are a one product company and management is untested. So be careful. kamal : so all growth stories are totally depend on market and hence e-serve and honeywell might not reward in anticipation of poor growth from tech companies Ramesh S Damani : Like BEL, market ultimately rewards growth. It may take time though. kamath : Sir, Your call on Arvind Mills & Colour chem, Pleaseeeeeeeeee.. Ramesh S Damani : Technically, Arvind looks good. BASANTMAHESHWARI : You were correct all through out the last 18 months about your analysis on MASTEK. Unfortunately I have quite a few shares at an average price of RS 250 should I just sell out at market rates or wait for a corrective rally upwards to about 340. I want your comments on this. In case I sell out where do I switch into? Ramesh S Damani : Sorry about that. I can't answer when to sell, but you could switch to e-serve or Tata Honeywell. convictions : Sir, your take on the scripts listed below "Gammon, Hindustan constructions, zee, apollo,mcdowell,kingfisher,tata infotech,mcmillan ", Will tata infotech be a better bet then E Serve seeing the current valuations ? Ramesh S Damani : At current valuations, I am not sure. However, e-serve could be the standard for the industry. So it is worth holding on to it. Hindustan Constructions: good, Mcdowell: good, Tata Infotech: after results, Mcmillan: look after results. I own all of them. sudip : Can I invest in ETFs like Nifty Bees and SPICE Sir? Ramesh S Damani : Yes. If you think the index is headed higher. Index may be in for trouble. Aditya : sir what about M&m considering its stake in MBT and the scorpio doing reasonably well plus expected normal monsoon Ramesh S Damani : It is doing well. At current price, it looks good. However, I don't know about its growth. srik : 9th time. Now the war has gone. What next ?. Do you think SARS will now effect the BSE ?. Ramesh S Damani : It could become a huge problem. However, right now it seems contained. georgesoros : do yu track a company called ingersol rand and another called cosmo films Ramesh S Damani : I own and like Ingersoll. rsp : RCF?? Ramesh S Damani : Bullish on it. kten : Hello Mr. Damani: What is hapening to your Fav. NIIT? are these signs for revival of the IT Edu sector, SSI/Aptech Ramesh S Damani : It's not been my favourites. No view at the current time. sharath : Sir, Why people are ignoring the dividend yield of MRO-TEK. It is quoting at around Rs. 12 and the dividend yield is Rs. 1.50 per share. What is wrong with that company or just people are not aware of this fact. Can I buy this share at the current rates sir. Ramesh S Damani : Quality of the company is not high. What if they skip the dividend? dasusdipto : resently i bought sbi. Sir what is your call on it.do u feel it will be a growth story in the range of 15-20% from now with 4-5% devident yeild. Its it worth holding for a long term view. or make it a core holding in your view for 5-10 years down the lane.thnaks Ramesh S Damani : 10 years is too long, but 2-3 years should be okay. I own it. farooqwala : Sir, I am holding 5000 shares Cyberspace Ltd, this company has delisted frm the exchanges due to UTI scam involvement, Would you please highlight about this company, is the company alive or not? will it list in exchanges in future? please advise me Ramesh S Damani : I am sorry, but it is a dead investment. It is not traded/delisted. bharathish : Hello Sir,I have purchased 200 Sterlite Opticals at @ Rs. 55.00. Now it is quoting at 33.50.Shall I keep the stock or sell at these levels And also please let me know when they are going to publish results.please reply Ramesh S Damani : That is for you to decide. Results dates are at bseindia.com. cheappaniee : Hello Mr Damani ; what should I do be heard ; could you please tell me your views on ICI and Tata Coffee ; should one buy at CMP?????? Ramesh S Damani : Both are good at current rates. I have a small position in Tata Coffee. convictions : Sir, Many thanks for your reply. I appreciate that. You dont have a view about Gammon and Zee. I know you are not a fan of Zee. But how do you rate both zee and gammon for 1-2 years perspective? Anything exciting in pharma? Ramesh S Damani : Gammon I would avoid due to management concerns. However, Zee I would watch. At some price it would be attractive. AnandBhatt : Sir, why did Geometric fall so much today? Ramesh S Damani : I own Geometric. lawrence : Sir I am holding 1000 shares of Rolta,which I bought it for Rs.98.pls tell me what I shoud do now? Ramesh S Damani : I am not bullish on it. kalyan : Mr. Damani, what about bharti stock, the management now seems to be transperant and aggressive,do you think at current levels it is attractively valued Ramesh S Damani : I don't think they are transparent. I can't make up my mind about the stock. So I am avoiding it. jjpandit : sir please your view on neyveli lignitre this is time to look at this psu stock? Ramesh S Damani : It could be good, but unlikely to be disinvested soon. balumani : Any idea about Titan which is going up Ramesh S Damani : Strike is over. cheappaniee : Thank you for your response ; how do you rate the coming IPO of Maruti and what price do you feel HPCL will be disinvested at? Ramesh S Damani : Let's wait in Maruti. HPCL around 500 let's hope. I own it. Gautham : What do you think about Ucal Fuel and other Auto Ancillary industries? Ramesh S Damani : Ucal looks good and so does this industry. StockLover : What would be a fair P/E for E-serve in a reasonably optimistic market (i.e., unlike now) ? Ramesh S Damani : Around Rs 25-30 is a sustainable price earning. In a fancy market it could get Rs 40. It must grow though. vivekhari : Sir, I have East India Hotels shares. Is the share worth holding?? Ramesh S Damani : Yes ITC interest is good for the stock. tulsee : sir u had been always advising not to have more scrpis in ones portfolio....but u seem to be holding a large no Ramesh S Damani : My core holdings are very few. However, I buy small amounts sometimes of many companies to start following them. Good observation. AnandBBhatt : SIR,PLEASE ANSWER THIS ONE.IS THIS A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO BUY GEOMETRIC[400 OR LOWER] AND ESERVE AS ESPECIALLY GEOMETRIC TENDS TO GO BACK ABOVE 450 IN A SINGLE SESSION AND AFTER THE RESULTS I MAY NOT GET THIS PRICE THOUGH YOU LIKE BUYING AFTER RESULTS.YOUR ADVISE PLEASE.THANKS. Ramesh S Damani : It's too late. Geometric results are out 6.00 IST on Tuesday. So Wednesday it will open with a gap. As a principle, I hate buying volatile stocks ahead of the results. I hope people learnt that lesson from Infy and Mastek. ProfHAkkMy : Dear Mr Damani,Shares like HLL,Reliance Capital,VSNL,MTNL,Zee and Dabur look(from here,Malaysia) very attractive for buying. What is your advice to NRIs like me? Ramesh S Damani : HLL is good for NRIs. Zee risky, but okay. I would avoid MTNL and VSNL. Dabur is okay. sukumarlaghate : Dear Mr. Damani, I've purchased gillette at 335/ a year back. What should be the target price and correct time to sell these? Ramesh S Damani : At only Rs 1000 crore market cap, it has a way to go over time. I am holding on. georgesoros : if growth is going to be anemic in hll and it appears they have lost their pricing power and it is stllanexpensive stock why recomend it to nris is it only for the yield Ramesh S Damani : No. Sometime when GDP growth resumes, it will start growing again. Also for NRIs it is a great defensive investment. convictions : Sir, What do you about Tata's as an Industrial House. The reason I am asking this goes back to the question of buying Tata Infotech at current valuations. I think, there have been some roadblocks for all there companies but they have turned the corner in a decent way everytime. TCS is a bellweather company when it comes to out IT sector. DOnt you think Tata Infotech will be next ITES giant in the making, going by the client base it gets from TCS? Ramesh S Damani : They are restructuring the business. At some price, it will be great but operating business is still sluggish. I am waiting for the right time. May be after Q4 results. sjb : sir, how do you forsee the price of pentamedia.is it worth to hold on for 1 month? Ramesh S Damani : I don't forsee that. Kiran-e : One year back you advised me to go for TataTea , I bought and made good amount today. Could you please comment on Apolo Hospitals, Amarraja batteries and AndhraBank?Thanks for you on Tata Tea Ramesh S Damani : Apollo Hospitals is a good addition. I own it. BASANTMAHESHWARI : I-flex does it form a part of your core portfolio or you just hold a small quantity of this company. The business model of this Co. seems different anf rewarding. Your view Ramesh S Damani : Small part. I missed the early rise. Dinesh : SIR PLEASE GUIDE ME I HAVE A HUGE STOCK OF SILVERLINE Ramesh S Damani : Hi Viren. tulsee : sir..do u track karnataka bank....if so is it overpriced..at current levels...can there be a better switch Ramesh S Damani : It's not overpriced. It is cheap. convictions : I guess, I am lucky today. Over here in US, I think its the perfect start to my day. I am guessing the reason why i got answers to all the 3 questions in the very first go. May be the questions were decent enough or because you like this word "Convictions". I like it too. THanks anyways Sir for your time. Ramesh S Damani : Thanks for your kind words. Conviction and passion are favourite words with me. Dinesh : SIR I COULD NOT UNDERSTAND UR ANSWER (HI VIREN) ABOUT SILVERLINE PLZ Ramesh S Damani : Not bullish on Silverline. Viren is a friend from Rajkot. kkochar : how about j&kbank and karur bank Ramesh S Damani : Both are cheap and good. atul : hi ramesh... how does tisco look like ... i bought around 10000 shares of TISCO.. Ramesh S Damani : At these levels, it is good. shridharan : sir will u ever answer my question on Kirloskar Oil Engines ltd Ramesh S Damani : I don't follow it, sorry. georgesoros : the secret to iflexs sucess will lyon how well they can crack open the tough us market Ramesh S Damani : That is true. However, give them some time. sagar : damaniji, tell me seriously do you not admit to have not read the market that sucessfully as done in early 2002 and stocks u recommended never went up?be honest Ramesh S Damani : It has been a tough market. However, with the exception of Mcmillan, the stocks that are in my core are holding value and remain bullish on. It is very hard to outperform the market in a bear phase. When market turns bullish, stocks will move rapidly. The trick is to buy good stocks and sit tight. bilu : Sir ,CAN YOU PLEASE LET ME KNOW YOUR VIEW ON BEL?? Ramesh S Damani : Stock has made a lifetime high in such a weak market. Need I say more? I own it. BASANTMAHESHWARI : Has the employee stock hangover in IFlex been discounted? Ramesh S Damani : No. ozagautam : Sir Dont you think the market over reacted after infy results Ramesh S Damani : Probably not. Infy needed a wake up call. Thanks for joining. See you all next week. Bye. |