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'Action on Kelkar report to impact market'Mumbai, January 22, 2003: 'If Kelkar committee recommendations on tax and dividend are implemented the market would be bullish,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.Ahmedabadguy : Mr. Damani Now at 300 rs. Still SBI has a long way to go or a cooling off now? Also is Bharti a buy now after the result? Ramesh S Damani : It remains my favourite among the bank shares. ayan : Mr. Damani how is market looking for next two weeks in light of global war fear? Ramesh S Damani : Hello everyone thanks for joining. Let's start. No way to quantify the risk of a war in Iraq. If we have a chem/bio type of war market could fall 10% a day for 2-3 days. Short of that market is okay. newbie : What resources do you recommend for a new comer into this field Ramesh S Damani : Start reading a lot and develop a view of the world. You need conviction and foresight to be a successful investor. wahabi : rameshbhai, i bought bharti at 38 do you think i can recover my money or i shld cut my losses and sell right away? Ramesh S Damani : It is difficult to make a call since the industry is in turmoil. When in doubt avoid. rahul : Hi Damanji,what is your opinion about GE Shipping? Ramesh S Damani : Safe with a good yield. BASANTMAHESHWAR : Bharti q-on q growth above 29% does it merit investment at current rates. I was also told that the company has got a very low variable cost structure since most of the investment is capital sunk in costs. If that is taken into consideration will the volume increase in customer base offset the fall in billing rates. The only threat is WLL. Tell me an entry price.. M'cap is very high though. Ramesh S Damani : As I said previously it is impossible to cut through the clutter since it is a fastmoving industry. I have no view because the market cap is still high. BASANTMAHESHWAR : E-serve fell on low volumes today. Anything specific or just a trading event? In future whenever it falls like this should one buy more into it. This is my top holding. Ramesh S Damani : Money was generally moving out of tech and into PSU banks. We need to get this quarter's numbers, before we make a call. I'll hold the stock. BASANTMAHESHWAR : Ramesh babu couple of weeks back you mentioned that Mc Dowell's Dec sales is up quite a bit Have we taken the 25th Dec and Ist January days in consideration while computing the comparisons as these days attract more usage. Also there is a big consumption element during the winter. What are your EPS estimates for 03? Ramesh S Damani : The company has never done well. That is why its valuation is so low. They sold 3 million cases on a consolidated basis in dec …a new record. I still own it. salikh : hi ramesh , how are u? tyhis shaukath with u . in last transciption u had suggested krebs in pharmacitcal, i bought @ 113 now it is trading at the lower level , is it better to hold OR sell ? Ramesh S Damani : Rome wasn't built in a day neither are companies. Let's watch it. BASANTMAHESHWAR : I missed the bank rally. Do you think that people like me should get in now or just concentrate on the IT/ITES sector as the NPA bill etc is only a one time gain and companies should perform year on year to get the M'cap expanding. Ramesh S Damani : SBI still looks cheap though I believe the party in mid cap bank stocks is likely to continue for another quarter. MaheshSomani : sir....tell me how the M-CAP influence your decision to invest in a counter Ramesh S Damani : It is very imp. It gives you a sense of the value of the co. McDowell at a market cap of 200 cr is very cheap. Use that as a screening tool. nikhil : In the last chat u told u have holding in HTMT andTVSELEC do u still hold it and what is your view on them? Ramesh S Damani : I do still hold them though I trade in TMT. Nothing new in either to cause an upward movement. StockLover : Any opinions on the retail picks such as Pantaloon and Trent ? Ramesh S Damani : I like pantaloon as a speculative punt. rajesh : Sir, what is your expectation from results of this qtr and next quarter of Tata Honewell? Ramesh S Damani : I expect the results to show good growth and profits … They should be doing well. BASANTMAHESHWAR : Geometric results were nothing to write home about. For a Co. as small as this q-o-q growth should be substantial. The fall in onsite work has also dented the top line. Should investors just hold at current rates or is it still a screaming buy? Ramesh S Damani : Avoid looking at these companies on a Q-to-Q basis. But remember growth stocks will always be expensive. I still own it. Sriharsha : Namaste Remesh Ji,1) What has market capitalisation to do with stock picking ?2) How to determine the price at which to pick up stock for investor ?3) Which is the site to look for company guidance ? Ramesh S Damani : M-cap explains the value of the company in the market. We make judgments if it is too high or too low. 2)That is still an art not a science. It comes from experience andjudgment. 3)Myiris, HDFC Securities are two examples. StockLover : Why does E-Serve trade at such low volumes, I mean it hardly ever tops 20K shares ! Ramesh S Damani : It used to be much lower. This is an improvement, it is an investment shareholders do not trade it. ShaileshBagri : Sir, Cosmo Films is the market leader in its BOPP business with more than 30% market share and one of the largest exporter in its business. Though after merging Gujarat Propack business the financials doesn't seems to be impressive but the co. is confident of posting good performance in the next quarter with expansion. Currently the prices are range bound between 135-160? Is there an accumulation going on? Ramesh S Damani : It could well be. However I am not following the stock on a day-to-day basis. BASANTMAHESHWAR : The ET (cal edition) reported on Monday that Generic drug prices are up 15 to 20% in the US as most of the drugs are going off patent and people are coming on to buy the cheaper brands. All mid sized India companies gain due to this viz. IPCA, Lupin etc. AT current levels tell me an (only one, as I believe in concentrated holdings) investment pick from the pharma sector, which is traded on NSE. I feel Uphos will also gain due to this. I hold this stock as an investment for the past 4 months. Your Take? Will Uphos also gain?? Ramesh S Damani : What has Uphos to do with generic drugs? baracuda : have yu seen indian hotels results they were out today Ramesh S Damani : Have not seen them yet. ayan : Damaniji do you feel Macmilan has now found very strong support around 168-170 levels and new purchase can be done at present level? Ramesh S Damani : It looks like it has found support. However, the company needs boost from the management. BASANTMAHESHWAR : I know your opinion on Mastek. If we exclude the management considerations doesn't the stock look cheap on the basis of its results. I am invested into it from quite a long time now. Ramesh S Damani : How can you divorce management from results. They go hand in hand. rajeshgoutham : What's your view on Rolta at these levels Ramesh sir? Ramesh S Damani : Not very bullish. MaheshSomani : Is long term investing Dead ?Is it time to follow "buy cheap sell high" strategy ? Ramesh S Damani : I believe it is still on you. Just cannot find good long term stocks every day. ayan : Damaniji any value pick you find attrectively prised in capital Goods sector who can do well in following quaters? Ramesh S Damani : Not really found any baracuda : do yu still like sbi at 300.imean like to buy. Ramesh S Damani : Yes. Ahmedabadguy : Mr. Damani any news on Indian organic stock front?you advise biying at 11 rs? Ramesh S Damani : Contract sub is doing well. You could take a punt on it. ritu : have u seen HTMT results Ramesh? how are they and what's yr call on the scrip.....i have a position in it? can it go much lower? Ramesh S Damani : It may sell tomorrow, because the results were good not exceptional. However, the company is on track over time I still own some. ShaileshBagri : There was a rally in HPCL today. Do you advice to hold this script for some more time? Ramesh S Damani : Before divestment starts we could see a price of Rs 350. rajesh : Sir, what is your expectation from results of this qtr and next quarter of Tata Honewell? Ramesh S Damani : I don't have any numbers but my sense is the ITES business should be booming. ayan : Mr. Damani like your ITES gave great returns few quaters ago banks gave great returns this quater..What is your Hawkeye senses next? Ramesh S Damani : I beleive if Kelkar committee recommendations are accepted, we will have a huge bull run in the market. Generally all sectors will perform. rajesh : Sir, yr opinion on Man Inds. and vst inds. are these stocks are looking attractive to you? pl answer Ramesh S Damani : I would hold on to both. I won some Man Ind. rajesh : Sir, apart from Tata Honey and E-serve what will be your best pick in IT enabled stocks? Ramesh S Damani : Mcmillan at 165 is cheap. Look at Tata Infotech after the results. I own both. nikhil : what is your view on market post budget will it sustain or not and what should be range of market in next six months Ramesh S Damani : If Kelkar committee recommendations on tax and dividend are implemented the market would be bullish. BASANTMAHESHWAR : UPHos is into fertilizers and pesticides. the company has an opportunity to compete in a $15 billion generic agrochemicals market worldwide. Further, the company is talking of getting a couple of patented products under its belt by this year-end. Uphos is not a commodity company and is more like a pharma company. It needs to go through the rigours of trials and approvals before it can register a product in an overseas market.? Ramesh S Damani : Thanks for the information. I will think about it. PAL : SIR,I AM WAITING FOR YOUR ANSWER ON POLARIS Ramesh S Damani : They might have to take a charge due to the Indonesia fiasco. Let's re-value it after the results. rajesh : Sir, apart from SBI and mcdowell what will be your best pick in old economy stocks? pl answer Ramesh S Damani : Look at pharma. MUSE : SIR, YOU MENTIONED THAT MID CAP BANKS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO WELL FOR ANOTHER QUARTER. WHAT PARTICULAR BANKS ARE YOU RECOMMENDING Ramesh S Damani : I am recommending only SBI guptaone : rameshji! hope u hv gone through the details of UB's proposed convertable debentures issue! how is it looking? Ramesh S Damani : The prospectus has not come to me. Ahmedabadguy : As Disinvestment front moving again any company you find still attrective to be invested in??? Ramesh S Damani : Nothing that is in the divestment calendar. annu : dear ramesh please give some best investment pict in the range 25-30 at the current level Ramesh S Damani : Take a look at United Brewerie holding (27) or Man Industries (22). I own both but don't know when they will move. ayan : Sir please type again your answer in good pick in old economy sector? Ramesh S Damani : Indian pharma I said but you could take a look at Siemens also. MaheshSomani : sir..you have picked various winner on Dalal Street ? now pick one for next months world cup ?which tean stands the best chnace Ramesh S Damani : Australia or South Africa. baracuda : is it true that fiis have picked up shares of canara bank boi bob and andhra Ramesh S Damani : That is my understanding. jjpandit : Ramesji, very good afternoon, at presnt mkt i wolud like to invest could you sugest the % of portfolio sector wise which one can get nicly return pl give me answer i eill oblidge. Ramesh S Damani : Return the market decides, not me I would put 30% in ITES, 30% in pharma, rest like McDowell, bank etc. Ahmedabadguy : Damaniji Does prospect of Radico khaitan changes(For good or bad)after its merger with BIFR Abhishek Cement??? Ramesh S Damani : I have no data on that. rajesh : Sir, out of Tata honey and e-serve which will outperform in the short term say 1 year from now? Ramesh S Damani : Difficult Q. I like them both. sagar : damaniji, its long since we made any money from your recommeneded stocks, kindly offer something for which can give us graet returns before budget looking into what might kelkar do? Ramesh S Damani : Why didn't you buy Honeywell? BASANTMAHESHWAR : I want names of 2 mid sized Pharma Companies where one could invest and also the entry price if you could? Ramesh S Damani : IPCA is good to start with. Lupin and Krebs are more speculative. I own all of them. baracuda : yu might recomend sbi but dont yu feel the smart money has been made in canara corporation andhra boiand the cos have backed up their stock performance with equally good results sbi has moved from230-300only Ramesh S Damani : No disputing that. However remember a lot of smart money bought HFCL, Penta etc. and were left holding the bag. Buy with conviction not what the market favours. tabu : All it enabled cos r growing. Why e-Srve is not growing since last two qrts? Ramesh S Damani : They are building infrastructure for the future. BASANTMAHESHWAR : I would have thought that FII would be willing to buy more into large cap stocks like SBI rather then Andhra,Dena etc etc!!! Ramesh S Damani : They can't buy SBI due to limit. ritu : Dear Ramesh.....unfortunately I have missed to buy IPCA amongst yr recommendations. Is it still a buy at current prices? Ramesh S Damani : It looks attractive. Anand B : Sir In pharma Sector have u gone through in any company & looks interesting to u apart from bigies ? Ramesh S Damani : IPCA, Suven and Krebsi. MUSE : SIR WHY IS THAT - YOUR NOT RECOMMENDING MID CAP BANK STOCKS. IS IT THAT THOUGH THERE IS A RALLY IN THE MKT, BUT YOU DONT BELIEVE IN THAT. YOU THINK ITS EUPHORIA IN VAIN. Ramesh S Damani : The gains in profit are mainly coming from securities trading. Banks should make money from lending, credit cards etc. These earnings are not sustainable and hence unattractive to a long term investor. ayan : Sir in Indian pharma what according to you should be Marketcap/ turnover ratio? Ramesh S Damani : One time sales would be an attractive buying option. nikhil : what are your favourite in pharma Ramesh S Damani : Dr Reddy's. BASANTMAHESHWAR : Ipca will have an EPS of more then RS 40 in the current year if I am not mistaken? Ramesh S Damani : Greater than that. shenoy : Damaniji, do u think that divestment process will be delayed if the war breaks out? Ramesh S Damani : Certainly. hello : THANKS 4 ur reco in SBI.... i owe u a part of my profits... Ramesh S Damani : That is kind but not necessary, good luck. paploo : Sir, Isn't it surprising that TELCO is not bidding for punjab tractors ?It would have made great sens for telco to enter into tractors by taking over pun. tractore ? Ramesh S Damani : No great synergy. ash : dont keep mum because of our stupid q's, what is yr take on GTL, pentamedia Ramesh S Damani : Avoid. gokul : Hello Mr. Ramesh, can u please answer my previous query. Is it a good time to sell BSES or do u think prices will rise further. Many thanks. Ramesh S Damani : It will remain range bound till Reliance offer is over. It should move after that. limbu : sir what is your call on TISCO for the near term Ramesh S Damani : Bullish. Quarter results will be good. baracuda : according to your analysis tata honey should have an eps of40 by2004and it trades at less than 10pe going forward obiviously the larger market does not know this should we take advantage of this ignorance? Ramesh S Damani : I don't have a specific number on EPS. It is cheap and in good business. shama : What oyu think of Global Tele Systems? If the bad management is there, then how can MSCI include it in their portfolio? Ramesh S Damani : Stranger things have happened. AnandBhatt : DEAR SIR,GOOD AFTERNOONWHY IS INFOTECH ENTERPRISES JUST FALLING.I BOUGHT SOME AT 210 AFTER WAITING FOR A WHILE AND NOW ITS TANKED TO 165.ANY NEGATIVE NEWS.PLEASE REPLY. Ramesh S Damani : None that I have read let's wait for the results. Ahmedabadguy : Damaniji important one...Any recent buys for you? Ramesh S Damani : Nothing significant other than adding to Indian Pharma. ritu : Ramesh.....i hope u'll certainly not avoid this question....a few months ago u used to say that pharma is a sector u don't understand and thereby refuse any queries on pharma companies. Now, what fundamental changes have happened in this sector that this sector has become yr favourite all of a sudden? Ramesh S Damani : Good question. I have been reading a lot on the sectors and friends have explained this sector to me. Also the generic export market is opening up big time and I think Indian companies will exploit this opportunity hence the bullishness. Farooqwala : Damaniji, I am from U.K., as told you earlier, I am holding good quantity of Cyberspace Ltd., Could you please highlight is there any chance this scrip to list in SEs, Is the company alive or not? Ramesh S Damani : It has fallen in disfavour. I think it is listed and trades like a penny stock. hello : HAVE U HEARD ABOUT VIMTA LABS... ur opinion... may be u could have alook at it.. my choice in BPO.... Ramesh S Damani : I am studying it looks promising. annu : RAMESHJI ARE U FOLLOWING SOFFIASOFTWARE? Ramesh S Damani : No AnandBhatt : SIR,WHEN ARE THE E.SERVE RESULTS? Ramesh S Damani : I think around 30. limbu : SIR PLEAS MENTION THREE STOCKS FOR THREE YEAR TIME FRAME Ramesh S Damani : I own all 3 Rusbahshah : Ramesh Sir I want u to please help me out i have 500 of pentamedia i had got it in 21.15 and now its 18 what should i do please tell me i really need ure guidance should i want or no please help Ramesh S Damani : I would book losses in it. vignesh : dear sir i am joining in this chat little bit late.so i dont know the previous answers.however i shall be thankful to you if you answer my questions.q1)shall i buy sbi for 300/-tomorrow (Wednesday)? or shall i go for tisco/telco? Ramesh S Damani : SBI and TISCO both look good. BASANTMAHESHWAR : In pharma do you also hold MATRIX LABS (listed only on bse and is also into contract research etc etc) Ramesh S Damani : No. They are having a great year and it seems that the profit is genuine. pm : sir can u comment on ongc (even) economic times has carried a report abt it being the star of 2003? Ramesh S Damani : I am sorry but I don't like the stock. ritu : do u think yr bullishness abt pharma companies will reflect substantialy in their results? can u cite any such company in the sector....which has reported substantialy improved results? the stories woven around software and BPO companies had them growing at a rate of above 40 percent per annum. Can the similar thing happen with the pharma companies u are bullish upon? Ramesh S Damani : I think it will. IPCA, Matrix, Reddy, Ranbaxy, Lupin are all exploiting this market and growing. It is a new opportunity opening up and we are still in the earlier stages of a bull run. abcde : RAMESHJI, SINCE U HAVE COME TO THIS CHAT, CAN U PLEASE TELL US ONE SCRIP THAT WOULD OFFER DECENT RETURNS Ramesh S Damani : I have no new ideas. However, SBI looks good. I own it. rajesh : Sir, are you still bullish on IT enabled stocks? would you still put 40% of your money in thise stocks?are you will increase yr weightage? Ramesh S Damani : Between 30% and 40%. Ahmedabadguy : Mr. damani if Gilby's Green lable( single brand with 2.5 mil cases sell) can get around 80 cr. tag then certaily at 200 cr. macdowell is three begger stock..... Ramesh S Damani : Or better. The valuations are too cheap. When management moves to unlock them it can only go up. tabu : Sir pls tell me when e-Serve will deliver growth. Ramesh S Damani : I think buy next quarter. StockInvestor : Being a techie, I hardly know a thing about the potential of the Indian Pharma Industry. Can you provide me with the long term growth rates of the Big Cap Pharma's, such as, Cipla, Reddy and Ranbaxy ! Ramesh S Damani : You need to look that up but Reddy, Cipla and Ranbaxy have created tons of wealth for investors. BASANTMAHESHWAR : ARVINd JoSHI of Valueqwest is a big pharma bull!!! Ramesh S Damani : Yes he has been the first to expose it. Great call. limbu : SIR I DID NOT GET THE NAMES OF THE THREE COMPANIES FOR THREE YEAR TIME FRAME Ramesh S Damani : Tatahoney, E-serve, McDowell. BASANTMAHESHWAR : I want you to answer this one can I covert a part of ESERve into pharma companies. I have a substantially large xposure to eserve or should I sell geometric for the pharma companies Ramesh S Damani : I would not do that. StockInvestor : Like where would I look up the growth rates. Is there a good place to research Indian stocks on the web ? Thanks ! Ramesh S Damani : Myiris, HDFC Securities. annu : can u plz tell us about vorin labs it is a super mover in last week Ramesh S Damani : Because of a merger with Matrix. ritu : how would you weigh the option of investing in BPO companies like Geometric, HTMT and KPIT around current prices or mid-cap pharma companies. I mean which segment will offer better return from here? Pls reply. Ramesh S Damani : I think a portfolio should have both sectors. It is difficult to call them at this stage. ayan : Well what kind of signal you see in mcdowell that points towards begining of management unlocking value? Ramesh S Damani : They have said that in the papers and they will wait till Herbertsons' affair is finished. vignesh : sir my friend is telling that infosys wil come to 3000/-level. is it pracicaly possible? Ramesh S Damani : Anything is possible. However, I don't expect it. |