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'Market is in a corrective process'Mumbai, January 20, 2004: 'If the economy grows at 8 per cent the market will rebound,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.dc : Sir, what level of the market should one look for, when will this correction U turn & it will be time to buy again Ramesh Damani : Hello everyone. Thanks for joining. Let's start. The market has obviously started a corrective process. My sense is that the primary markets is sending jitters to the secondary market. SINGARAJU : Sir. Holding 17000 BALAJI @Rs91 averaje. What is advice now, to add some more - hold - book some profit ? Ramesh Damani : I think this would be a good long term bet. I would hold. mics : Sir, your views on Goldiam, Monsanto? Ramesh Damani : I am bullish on both. Goldiam is having a good quarter. I own both. investnow : sir, will this quater be good for UB. will it report profits becuase of intrest reduction ... sir please commnet Ramesh Damani : Unfortunately results have been lacklustre all along. This one is for a person who can sit and wait. Lot of absolute value …very spotty earnings. I own it. Babu : Hello Rameshji, what is your advice for theperson who has fully invested? Thanks for the reply Ramesh Damani : I think investors should remain fully invested. If the economy grows at 8% the market will rebound. Newbieatstock : Sir a techinical analysit i spoke thinks the market has topped out for now and he things the senesx may correct upto 600-1000 points more from here on, your views ? Ramesh Damani : It could happen. Once the market starts falling it can test lower levels. rakshesh : Damaniji what do u mean by primary market sending jitters? people are selling so that they can invest in primary market? Ramesh Damani : In the next 6-12 months we might have 40,000 crs going to the IPO market. This will entail selling in the secondary market. However in good stocks, where management is not diluting equity I would remain invested. skk : hi ramesh,what is your overall view on the market , whether one should buy at current levels or wait. What is the correction estimated. What is the risk reward ratio Ramesh Damani : Markets tend to surprise on the downside and upside. I think we are in a bull market that needs to pause. Over time I am sure it will take out 6000 also. However get ready for pain. balu : sir, the upcoming ipo's Patni computers, power trading corporation and bank of maharastra. Out of these which one do you think best buy. Ramesh Damani : I have not studied them yet. baracuda : the market cap of beml is 500 crs when compared to engeeners dreging or even rcf or nfl which are 1000.crs plus isnt there scope for the market cap of beml to expand. Ramesh Damani : I think it will expand. However risk and return are not greatly in your favour at current rates. Management must deliver sharply higher earnings. I own it. yourfan : What about Godrej Inds? Your views pls at the current value Ramesh Damani : It looks good at the current rate. I own it. skk : do u think one should add goldiam at current rates 55/- Ramesh Damani : It looks okay to me. I own it. sanujkadavil : hai sirwhat appened to herbertsons deal both ub and chabria up offer price to 216.50.. offer closes on jan 30. sc will hear feb13th as last.how will end up the issue Ramesh Damani : I think they will settle it amicably. Unfortunately they take a great amount of time to do it. rakshesh : damaniji, one clarification on longterm capital gains tax-- suppose if I buy a stock which is currently not in BSE-500, but it was there in the index earlier this year-- then, is that stock exepmted from long term cap gains? Ramesh Damani : Check BSE site for list of stocks exempt from capital gains. They have the full list. MALIK : Sir, asu have mentioned it is because of primary market i.e IPO forthcoming in the market.or Is it because of slowdown of FII investment. Please advice whether indian market is totally dependent on FII or retail investor is playing it role. Ramesh Damani : We have become dependent on FII money. However, I think retail has taken over and are investing now. FIIs will also continue investing. mics : sir, some new developments in Logix micro? Any views Ramesh Damani : They announced the possibility of a stake by a customer. That would be a big plus. I think they will do well next year. investnow : sir do you think 100 is a good price for UB to hold for next 6 months, becuase elections are comming in month of april/ may. would you hope the beer sales will be good and can the company come out with results... as it says in it annual report that it sees a substantial reduction in interest rate in the comming year.. sir are you hopeful of that....??? Ramesh Damani : I think it is a good price. However, it might take two years for a really operating earnings driver to arise in UB. Management is focussed on capacity not profits yet. dc : Is SBI a good buy in this correction? Ramesh Damani : I think so. ravee : sir i am fully invested at current levels if there is achance of market falling 500 points is it adviceble to sell now and enter later.at this point i am making avery maginal loss on my portfolio.please ur advice sir Ramesh Damani : If you have conviction remain invested in the scripts. sanujkadavil : what is ur cal on patni issue..24cr equity works to 12 cr shares. at 230 rs market cap going only 2800cr. comparing 45000 to infy and wipro and satyam and hcl 10000 cr. 6th largest software exporter how would u vale the Ramesh Damani : I have not studied the prospectus yet. So no view. skk : at what price one should enter in logix/goldiam/mahindra ugine/ub properties/balaji Ramesh Damani : Goldiam and Balaji have good fundamentals. UB holding is speculative. Mahindra, Ugine has to turn the corner. SINGARAJ : Sir. It seems like IGATE is an unavoidable ITES stock to a ITES bull like you.But it is not finding favour with you still.Why? Ramesh Damani : I am going to relook at it thanks to the latest deal. vinaydamani : ramesh uncle vinay here what should be done with hpcl and bpcl what should be the stoploss today in the crash these two stocks stood firm what to make out of it...vinay damani Ramesh Damani : No change in view. I would remain invested in them at the current time. tigershark : do yu see a possible take over of hdfc bank by a foreign bank with the new rules and would yu still invest in it Ramesh Damani : I think it will happen over time not quite yet. I own it historically, I am not currently buying. rakesh : Sir,Inspite of not so good results CRISIL is showing a brave face.Why? Ramesh Damani : The floating stock has been absorbed. ravee : sir thanks for answering but personaly i dont have conviction or have much knowledge. ifollow experts like u and others .so sir ur opinion and advice . Ramesh Damani : To make money in the market and keep it you need to develop conviction. dc : People say 10-15 stocks are ideal no. in a portfolio. what is your opinion and do u think that one should have a core portfolio and sell rest when one's expectations of returns are achieved? Ramesh Damani : If you have a core portfolio you should not have other stocks, most of us including me cannot find the discipline to do that. I have tried and not succeeded. CHINTAN : HELLO SIR ANY IDEA ABOUT "JL MORRISON" Ramesh Damani : Good small cap idea. maha : Sir, last 4/5 days lot of volatility is happening in SBI counter? It seems market is expecting some positive news on FII front? If the expectations do not materialise in the immediate future, there may be correction to the extent of 10%? what is your opinion sir? Ramesh Damani : It could. But that is a trade of conviction. So I am going to hold on. vinaydamani : what level should the market bottoms at and should tisco is a good buy at present level if not what should be the entry level in the same same question for reliance ....vinaydamani Ramesh Damani : I have no specific targets. I am bullish. In bullish markets stock tends to go higher. skk : how do u like sintex.I understand warren buffet has some equity in it. I sit advicable to invest a tcurrent prices Ramesh Damani : Warren Buffett? I have not heard that. tigershark : do yu still beleive that we are in one of the biggest bull markets india has ever seen or are we seeing the bigining of the end of a liquidity led rally Ramesh Damani : I am leaning toward the former. kvg : sirrrrrrrrrrr, when will the divestment of madras fert will take place.PLEASE ANSWER NOOOOOOO Ramesh Damani : Don't know. Sorry. chanchal : hello should i address you as UNCLE?? thogh i would not like to as i find you very dashing and attractive on tv.. please answer TATAPOWER shoul one hold or exit???? Ramesh Damani : Ramesh is fine. skk : ramesh sorry but some big fii name is there who has invested in sintex , pl. advice how it is looking .shall we enter at current rates of 130/- Ramesh Damani : I would buy at the current time. sanujkadavil : siri recently bought balaji. but one analyst saying they are staning with success of couple of serials. we donot know what wil happen next . is it high risky strategy to buy balaji..how wil balaji benefit from the upmove from entertainment industry...what is their core busines. Ramesh Damani : Go through the balance sheet and her track record. The risk reward seems to favour buyers. Only negative is why insiders sold recently. newbieeatstock : sir how are macmillan and zodiac doing Ramesh Damani : I understand both are doing well. CHINTAN : SIR DAMANI ESTATE PVT LTD IS UR COMPANY? Ramesh Damani : No. sanujkadavil : sirrecently business line quote that warren buffet s berkshaire buying ioc.. is there any news about his entering in to india.. what will he pick if he come to india.. Ramesh Damani : These rumours keep coming but i have no hard news about it. What would he buy? Tthat could take up a show. I would think Concor, GAIL, UB Holdings/McDowell…things like that. rakesh : Sir,I am holding GEOMETRIC since last two years.Recently Q3 results are out.Some say it's good whice some are not so happy with it. I am not so good an analyst.. Please your opinion,,as you are tracking this co since long???????????????? Ramesh Damani : Growth is still anemic. This is bad for a small base. However management is confident of next year's growth. At these prices it is a toss up. skk : if one has 1 lac rupes to invest now in which 3-4 scripts he can invest Ramesh Damani : Look at the transcripts for my suggestions. sanujkadavil : sirwhat is ur cal on titan. recently i noticed titan is among top five brand in over 5 countries. but p/l and b/s not looking healthy. they canot do anything without reducing debt. recently some news of rights issue. mr.jhunjhunwala bought over 6% in titan. i year back titan put an ambitious target of 1500cr turnover for 2005.do you think that titan is good bet for long term. Ramesh Damani : I would agree with Rakesh's view and take a bet on it. skk : ramesh since market has falles so much , which scripts do u like to invest at current prices Ramesh Damani : Thanks all for joining. See you next week. Bye. |