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'We are in a bullish market'Mumbai, March 16, 2004: 'The bear phase has not yet begun,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.RAJIV: After hearing Jim Rogers I tried to narrow down some sugar stocks and came up with EID Parry, Sakthi and Rajshree. DO you see potential in the managements of the latter two and whats your general opinion on these cos. as investment opportunities? Thanks! Ramesh S Damani: Hello everyone. Thanks for joining. Let's start. EID seems the best bet since theyhave sanitary ware and power.Bajaj Hind, Balrampur could be good among the blue chips. Sakthi is a dark horse, has huge debt but good potential JEDHM: Do you think that the bear phase has begun ? Ramesh S Damani: My sense is that we are in a bullish market. RAJIV: I cently bought KALE and GOLDIAM as they looked like good value picks - I believe this fall is a great opportunity for long term investors to enter. Which tech stocks (mid caps) do you like amongst those that have dropped sharply? Ramesh S Damani: I like both these stocks. Also take a look at Nelco. i own the above AkshathReddy: I have bought 500 Welspun Gujarat @ Rs. 49 on your recommendations. Since then the stock has been falling. What do you suggest. Hold it or Sell and Book Losses. I am new to Stock Market, and unable to take desission Ramesh S Damani: I generally have not recommended Welspun, pipe business is doing well though so hold on. Kalpesh: what is ur call on GSK PHARMA after the merge and what will be the price post 2005 if any Ramesh S Damani: i see good opprotunity for MNC pharma post 2005 RAJIV: Business Line has reported that more global retailers (JC Penney, Wal Mart etc) are looking to source jewellery from India from SUASHISH, etc. Do you expect Goldiam to be in this league in near future? Ramesh S Damani: Goldiam is selling already to wal-mart. I believe the stock isa bit mispriced. I own it. they are having a good year ski: ramesh bhai in one of your previous chats you have told that you will give us the name of top ten books to read please tell us about that Ramesh S Damani: i'll try and put it up by next week shaynemjohn: Hi Ramesh, hope you're well. It's been a while since you discussed the second-tier tobacco companies, specifically Godfrey Philips, on this site. Do you still own it? Do you have a strong fundamental case specifically for GP, or is it just the dividend yield, low valuations and the cashflow prospects (and low litigation risk) of the tobacco industry in markets such as India? Ramesh S Damani: i recently added Godfrey. It is going to be sold to P Morris at a huge valuation some day. No tobacco mahor can ignore India andchina. At these valuations i would buy baracuda: Over the last one month the market cap erosion for you and us has been considerable are you now getting worriedand would you continue to hold on to tour investments or would you convert large portions into cash Ramesh S Damani: in my investments i am used to this kind of volatility. it doesn't get easy, but good co with conviction does pay rrd: Dear Sir, Do you stick to your earlier recommendations post correction in the market Ramesh S Damani: pretty much Tabu: Why e-Serve is falling? In sympathy of market or outsourcing concerns? Ramesh S Damani: generally negative press news on outsourcing every day rakshesh: damaniji, I had bought Mahindra Ugine as per your advice-- what should I do now? Should I hold? For how long? Ramesh S Damani: i am recently adding to my positions. Remember it has 50 lakh shares of M&M so the stock has great intrinsic value shaynemjohn: I have a question regarding Balaji's balance sheet. Does it bother you that the company has been stockpiling the free cashflow that it generates, since roughly 20% of Balaji's market cap is now in cash and marketable securities? Looking through the CF statements, the business only requires low amounts of capital re-investment (barring occasional spending on production facilities) and such capex can easily be covered through ongoing operating cashflow. Do you think that a move into the big-budget movie business is likely, financed by the cash on hand, given the background of the promoters? Ramesh S Damani: i think they are getting into small budget films. they should keep trying to develop the tv, gen shows, etc rather than get into big budget production. sanujkadavil: sir what is happening in market? any reason for Monday's fall. do you think more downside coming in short term. which is the best scrip to enter for short term .i think all are attractive . Ramesh S Damani: no particular reason other than money being sucked out due to primary issues baracuda: i have added 1000 balaji at 79. do you think the ind will grow at 15%per annum as per frames2004 and what impact will dth broadband and cas have on balaji Ramesh S Damani: since they are in content it should not have an impact. clearly growth is the key to a higher valuation ssunil: sir, news corp and tata group are entering DTH segment and they will be using vsnl infrastructure is the alliance finalised is vsnl good bet at current prices also it is investor friendly has paid huge dividends in past Ramesh S Damani: it is am emerging story. lets watch it AnandBhatt: Hello Sir, Logix has really fallen a lot. Would you buy at these levels or wait? Please advise. Ramesh S Damani: i am not buying but i am holding. stock has fallen badly. i think good results should come from Q1 rakshesh: thanks damaniji -- what is the likely time frame- for how long I have to hold on to Mahindra ugine? Ramesh S Damani: due to rise in input costs profit maystill be 2-3 quarters away sanujkadavil: sir why stocks like classic diamond, soundcraft trading very cheaply. they are very cheap on marketcap and p/e ratio. what is your call on gem and jewellary stocks Ramesh S Damani: i like goldiam. the rest you need to do due diligence on mgmt sekarkc: Sir,What are the prospects for HTMT in the near term? Can we enter that script at this level? Ramesh S Damani: i think at these rates it is a good bet. BPO business is doing well. cable is on hold due to CAS shaynemjohn: Ramesh, have you looked at Glenmark Pharma? It has exciting product JVs with US-based companies like KV and Lannett, but still trades at a low valuation compared to other names in the group. In your opinion, is the valuation low because of the market's concern over Glenmark's low cashflow generation compared to its reported profits (and sharp increase in debt) over the last three years - or is there something else? Ramesh S Damani: it has recently been split and the co has gone from 30 to 150Rs 2 paid up vvinay: sir, don't you think nelco is undervalued with lot of new steel plants coming and expansion in defence budget would augur well for the co can we call it bharat electronics in making or it is premature to say now Ramesh S Damani: that would be premature baracuda: do you continue to maintain your bullish views on india's shipping industry GE ship, SCI have added larger than expected falls only mercator lines appears to be holding out would you add to shipping Ramesh S Damani: i think rate dips are seasonal. AnandBhatt: Sir, so if we expect Logix to deliver good to decent results from q1. then why not buy when there is blood on the streets? Ramesh S Damani: as i have mentioned i have bought earlier around 12-15 levels chaandanni: SIR, everytime I request you for guiding me in GG AUTO. pl enlighten us.. they advertise a great deal..sir, pleeeeeeease advise me on GG AUTO is it hold or exit they seem to be in good business. Ramesh S Damani: i am sorry, i don't follow it sekarkc: Sir, Would opening up of Pension sector will have any positive impact on Sundaram Finance? The stock is getting traded on Low volumes. Are there any chances of improvment in the Liquidity? Ramesh S Damani: not a great deal. Value will be unlcoked over time due to soundness of business rsdadmirer: Good evening Mr. Damani, do you think valuations in Power sector, both generation and distribution, have peaked? Do we still have steady compunders here? Two top names please. Ramesh S Damani: in power generation look at neyveli, i own it. distribution i am not finding great value sanujkadavil: sir last week you make a call on ipcl. becoz of its change in parent company. but normally what is happening in reliance group they want inorganic growth like M & A . they have not considered rel petro shareholders interest in ril . rpl merger. those who bought ril petro at 60. still sitting with loses. like that reliance will try to merge ipcl with ril oneday. it will not favour for ipcl. Ramesh S Damani: yes, but look at BSES AkshathReddy: I have purchased 500 Godrej @ RS. 70 earlier, shall i average it now. It is trading at Rs. 45 Ramesh S Damani: it looks like a good bet to me. I own it kamath: Sir, read in some article that bonus issues are good at this time as ex-bonus price will be very less and show no short term gain. pls comment your views. I invested in Jubilant, Berger paints, Alembic etc.. Ramesh S Damani: tax planning ask your charteredaccountant sanujkadavil: sirwhat happen to bombay dyeing. some news that they are making some property business in worli property. any idea about the stock Ramesh S Damani: i am not sure the reason for the current move chaandanni: sir please guide us to some good stock appreciating in due time without giving us flying butterflies in stomach like GILLETTE???? Ramesh S Damani: gillette would be in that category. if you are not comforable with fluctuation look at mutual funds, index fund baracuda: is getting into short movies the right road for growth for balaji Ramesh S Damani: i am not sure. they should be doing more with TV actually morning shows, comedy, made for tvmovies AkshathReddy: Why has the balaji stock fallen from Rs. 115 to Rs. 79. Any technical analysis Ramesh S Damani: basically in line with the market chaandanni: sir reliance mgmt seems to be out of favour of NDA govt.. so if NDA govt comes back RELIANCE WILL have tough time going ahead.. what is your opinion???? Ramesh S Damani: i am not sure that is a correctreading of politics, baracuda: so is it purely bcos balaji trades at ape of 7.5and they give a large div that you are investing if growth does not come in the next 2 qrts the stock will tank Ramesh S Damani: w/out growth the stock would be in trouble. BUt you have to believe with their exp, b/s and india growth they will figure out a way to grow. in the meantime you get a 5% yield. sanujkadavil: sir last two-three weeks i noticed that someone is slowly buying UB Holdings. becoz i think 38-39 levels some one buying hugely. last three weeks delivery position was 95%. i think the buyer takes any sellers at 39 levels. Ramesh S Damani: good observations. i sold some to test the buyer on Tuesday chaandanni: sir yes other than gillette which are other stocks having low risk fair return??? Ramesh S Damani: that is hard to predict, check 52 weeks high low. small variations are a good place to start rakshesh: damanii- when is the TCS IPO likely to hit the market? Plz answer Ramesh S Damani: no body knows baracuda: graham and dodd bought only cos which offered great value and they looked out for cos in the single digit pe do you see any indian cos fitting this bracket where if he was alive would have considered buying into Ramesh S Damani: i think markets are more broadly researched. Buffett, for eg, is willing to pay higher PE for great growth co with a great franchise. growth and value are 2 sides of the same coin varunesh: Is GAIL good enough to buy at these rates or do we wait for the allotment & the consequent slide due to the deluge or will the deluge not affect the prices from the current levels ? Ramesh S Damani: we will see retail selling rekha: Dear Damanji Sir, what is the reason for NALCO going up, even during the falling market Ramesh S Damani: i know it has been a pleasant surprise shriya: Hi Mr Damani. Advice for NRIs. If the dollar is going touch Rs 35 or so , then the pound will be more stronger. What is yr advice for us , before we invest in Indian stocks. Many thanks Ramesh S Damani: a falling $ will cause trouble for export industry but domestic sector is largely insulated baracuda: any idea what the % of mcdowell shares are held in ub holdings Ramesh S Damani: i think around 40%.mcodowell also owns 40% of UB Beer sanujkadavil: sir what is happening shaw wallace . some big buying stock is like Chinese wall. some big hand buying . Ramesh S Damani: liquor stocks have been firm rakshesh: damaniji-why do you think dollar will fall to 35? Stanchart says that it may fall to 43. But predicting 35 is farfetched isnt it? Ramesh S Damani: it is but it could happen in 3 years, especially if iTES industry takes off shriya: Thanks for the answer. In your view , are stocks better than property in the long run ??!!! Ramesh S Damani: without a doubt susmita sarkar: Sir at the current mkt position what are your market picks in small caps Ramesh S Damani: for a diversied basket among smallcapsLogics Micro,mazda controlslinc penshree raj texchemare some egi own them all CHANDANI: sir more and more youngsters are taking to DRINKING hjabit is it not the reason liquor cos are doing better?? Ramesh S Damani: 50% of indian pop is below 21. growth should be organic. Thanks for joining. See you next week. Bye. |