'The status quo in J&K should be left undisturbed'

K Subrahmanyam was the first head of the defence ministry's Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses. But now he is better known in India as the architect of the report into the circumstances that led to the Kargil conflict. A respected defence analyst and commentator, he discussed on the Rediff Chat the developments at Agra on the first day of the India-Pakistan summit:

venkat : Why is Pakistan so adamant on Kashmir? What is their moral right on Kashmir? Please explain.

K Subrahmanyam : Pakistan was created on the basis of the two-nation theory advocated by Mr Jinnah and the Muslim League. This is the Pakistani belief. This has no legal basis since the Indian Independence Act did not talk about the two-nation theory. Mr Jinnah himself only wanted a Muslim state. But he advocated that the Muslim state should be a secular one. However, since the Pakistanis have persuaded themselves that they were created on the basis of the two-nation theory, or what is today called the thesis of the clash of civilizations, they feel that Kashmir as a Muslim-majority state should have gone to Pakistan.

During the Cold War period, the West, particularly the British, who partitioned India and created Pakistan mainly to use Pakistan against the perceived threat of Soviet expansionism, supported Pakistan on the Kashmir issue even though Kashmir's accession to India by Maharaja Hari Singh was accepted by a British governor general, Lord Mountbatten. The British governor general was let down by the British government.

K Subrahmanyam : I agree.

K Subrahmanyam : The leaders in India have always thought on these lines. That is why our defence budget never exceeded 3.3 per cent of the GDP, while Pakistan spent more than double that percentage. When the economic reforms were introduced we reduced the defence budget further to 2.2 per cent. Therefore, we are quite aware of the need to devote resources for poverty alleviation.

The problem is with the Pakistani leadership. They have reduced a country that was surplus in food to a food importer. While India is going up in terms of human development indices and is reducing its poverty the reverse is the case with Pakistan. It is the two-nation theory of Pakistan that prevents their moving towards a common market with India, let alone having something on the European Union model.

K Subrahmanyam : Perhaps the militants are not agreeable to reach a settlement with India on Kashmir and promote normal relations with this country. But if the Pakistani military leadership does not deal with the militants and control them, Pakistan will increasingly become labelled a terrorist state and its economy will suffer. The army itself will be penetrated by the militant extremists and be converted from a professional army to an armed rebel. General Musharraf warned about this in his speech to the mullahs on the holy Prophet's birthday. To some extent his present visit to India may be related to his efforts to control the militant extremists.

K Subrahmanyam : Yes. What has been begun in Agra is a peace process. It will involve several summits and several meetings between the two foreign ministers and several working groups having to work to promote better relations between India and Pakistan.

K Subrahmanyam : Nonsense!

K Subrahmanyam : Obviously India. Though over a period of time, if General Musharraf decides that he faces the danger of Islamic extremists taking Pakistan back to a mediæval age he may acquire some stake in the peace process. His present summit with Mr Vajpayee will establish whether he wants to prevent Pakistan from becoming a mediæval state.

K Subrahmanyam : I do not think so, even though we have a legal title to the whole state of Jammu & Kashmir because of the accession document signed by Maharaja Hari Singh.

I do not think that we should have within India people who are not willing to be its citizens. Sheikh Abdullah persuaded Pandit Nehru to stop the Indian Army's advance in 1948-49 since his own leadership and popularity was restricted to the Kashmiris in the Kashmir valley. Those who are living in the Pakistan-occupied portion of the former princely State of Jammu & Kashmir are not Kashmiris. They cannot speak the Kashmiri language. They are Mirpuris, Poonchis, Baltis and Gilgit people who are all Muslims of non-Kashmiri ethnicity. It is very difficult to say whether they would make loyal citizens of the Indian Union. Therefore, I am personally of the view that the status quo of the last 53 years should be left undisturbed.

K Subrahmanyam : Again as of today (July 15, 2001) the risks do not seem to be high.

K Subrahmanyam : As of today (15 July 2001) the prospects look good.

K Subrahmanyam : I think the general was thinking as a patriotic Pakistani. He understood that if the jihadis had their way, Pakistan would become a failed state and be branded a terrorist state by the international community.

K Subrahmanyam : It is highly unlikely. Pakistan is not in a position to fight another high-intensity war with India because of its poor economic condition and international isolation.

K Subrahmanyam : I would not like to charge every politician with playing the communal card even though many of them do.

K Subrahmanyam : One hopes so. General Musharraf has consulted his corps commanders before coming to India. Therefore, he must have a clear idea of what he can sell to his corps commanders. Once the army endorses his stand, there will be no problem in getting it endorsed by Pakistan as a whole.

K Subrahmanyam : It is very difficult to say whether this is a local incident or it had the approval of the higher authorities. So for the present we have to reserve our judgement.

K Subrahmanyam : No. Even during the Shimla Pact the understanding between Mrs Gandhi and Bhutto was that the LoC would slowly be converted to acquire the characteristics of an international border. There was no terrorism at that time.

I have already explained in answer to another question that the LoC clearly separates Kashmir from other ethnic groups and its delimitation was advocated by Sheikh Abdullah in 1948. He told the UN mediator, Dr Joseph Korbel, father of the US secretary of state under Bill Clinton, Madeleine Albright, that the rational solution to the problem of the erstwhile princely state of Jammu & Kashmir was a division of the state. And therefore the division of J&K state on the LoC has a long history.

K Subrahmanyam : Yes, it is desirable, but Pakistan has to agree to the delimitation in that area in accordance with the principles of the 1949 Karachi Agreement and the delimitation of the LoC following the Shimla Pact. From Point 9842 the delimitation should go north to the glaciers. And not as Pakistan wants, to the northeast, to join the Karakoram pass. If Pakistan agrees to this delimitation, Siachen can be demilitarised.

K Subrahmanyam : No. It is not likely to go.