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'Infosys has been lax about growth'Mumbai, April 15, 2003: 'The management is getting used to the status quo and that is dangerous. Growth is slowing,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.pilla : Hi Mr Damani, do u think its wise to stay invested in tech , I hold 240 infotech enterprises @190 levels , your advice. Ramesh S Damani : They are also struggling. But at these market caps, I would hold it. i own a small amount. heena : hi damani mujhe aapse chat karni hai izazat hai Ramesh S Damani : Hello everyone. Thanks for joining. Let's start. kane : Hi mr Damani I would like to ask the most common place topic What do you think about the Infosys debacle ???? Ramesh S Damani : Growth is slowing. Margins are under pressure. Management is getting used to the status quo and that is dangerous. I still own some shares. kane : Will satyam Rocket to the bottom with its results?? Ramesh S Damani : They are extremely vulnerable in the next three months. baracuda : lets keep infy aside and discuss esrve and ites will we see similair priceing pressures in ites cos how much will the appreciating rupee shave of the bottomline and at the end of the day will yu continue to be bullish about itesand will yu now buy some more eserve had yu not bought it .why is citinot looking at esrvefor new bpo businessare esreves hands so full ? Ramesh S Damani : The big difference is these companies should still grow at 25-30 per cent top and bottom. They have modest market caps compared to Infy. I own infy and e-serve. inv : Mr. Damani,Mastek loses nearly 50% of its value in one day, tell me how are we supposed to have confidence in the stock market. Ramesh S Damani : I have been repeatedly saying in the chat it is hard to take Mastek guidance seriously. They have disappointed before. Markets are prone to these things and investors must be careful. deep : After infosys muted guidance , do u think the following1. Whole IT sector will be depressed.2. Can we differeniate ITand ITES , if yes u think E-Serve, Honeywell , Geometric will also follow the suit and may announce disspointing result and giidance.3. What should be the startegy going forward Ramesh S Damani : None of these companies should give an official guidance. I think though my analysis says they will do 25 per cent plus growth. I own all three. shenoy : Mr.Damani- everybody knew that Infosys is going to give conservative forcaste-- still this is used to knock down the market-- dont u think that it is fishy? Ramesh S Damani : Market was expecting around 20 per cent. If the stock is growing at 10 per cent, why have a PE of Rs 25? What was the thinking? SRT : For an new small investor (40,000) - how should the portfolio be - how many stocks should be there - and any prime sectors Ramesh S Damani : With 40,000 one or two stocks. ravi : Hi Mr. Damani, What do you think about PSU bank stocks with their portfolios of gilts worth thousands of crores do you think that that with fall in interest rate billions of dollors worth value has been appreciated. Ramesh S Damani : That is why they have been going up. SBI is the biggest beneficiary of this. vinay : Sir ur views on Mcmillan, EsselPackaging & RCFT please Ramesh S Damani : Mcmillan looks very attractive at Rs 130. It is cum dividend Rs 3.50. Next January, they could pay another Rs 7-8 dividend. So in nine months, you get Rs 11 dividend approx. That is a great yield. Also growth should be around 20 per cent for the year and PE is around Rs 8 on forward basis. RCFT I would avoid. Essel has management issues. inv : How can we attract retail investors in the market which is so important for the health of the stock market. Ramesh S Damani : That is correct. I wish I knew a way to bring them. They have lost a lot of money and confidence. baracuda : infact mr damani yu have been vindicated about the stock markets yu did say mastek is dangerous and infy will have margin pressuresi only hope yu are right about ites and liqour Ramesh S Damani : Liquor is at throw away prices. You should bet on declines. ITES is a growth story. Valuations will be volatile. inv : If one day Infy stock price is 4,400 e.g the next 2 days it touches 2,400. Now Mr. Murthy wants to create wealth for his shareholders. But in this case he has taken the wealth of the stock market. Lets take one scenario, when the stock touches 4,400 Murthy should give a statement that it is touching too high and vice versa. We need indigenous solutions for indigenous problems. Ramesh S Damani : I think the blame if any should be on Nandan Nilekani and not Murthy. Nandan is in charge. They have been a bit lax about growth. bagri : Do u feel we can gat geometric/tmt at lower prices once their results are out or at what prices one should buy.U have conviiction in which ITES stock Ramesh S Damani : Geometric may not give guidance and marekt may misunderstand that. TMT is not for the current market. I own both stocks. shantanu : sir what do you say about the fall in reliance today..........i am holding the stock at 300 levels should i move out or hold.......... Ramesh S Damani : The stock will be under pressure because of relative valuation. AnandBhatt : DearSir goodafternoon.I bought INFI at 10,000 in Feb2000.Always thought that since management was very sound,it would bouce back one day.10-12%growth going forward looks very very bleak.Should I sell at such a loss after 3 yrs and switch to other stocks or other sectors to make up my loss? Ramesh S Damani : I am sorry to hear about your loss. The mistake you made was buying at a market cap of Rs 60,000 crore. Very few things are worth that. You would have to make your own mind. But remember if the stock you buy triples, you have made up your loss. (Rs 20 stock becoming Rs 60.) niranjan : Mr. Damani, I am looking to invest a decent sum of money and i have a perspective of 12 months period. I am not sector specific. Can you please suggest me few stocks which have a good chance of returning around 25-40% returns in this time-frame ... Ramesh S Damani : Broaden your perspective to 24-36 months and buy ITES and liquor stocks. sridharr : Dear Sir heard that mutual funds are flocking Heritage foods. any inside news sir...????? Ramesh S Damani : No. bagri : Any new stocks which u will prefer or u will likely to stay invest in Honeywell.geometric.e-serve,tata infotech,TMT,Mc. Dowell,UB,Man Industries, UB Holding. Out of these stocks which stock u will invest if u have 1 lac. Ramesh S Damani : I recently added Mcmillan. It is getting too cheap. It is a good value. anubrij : Ramesh bhai: I never got a reply from this chat. I am expecting I should get reply from you. What are your picks at present which can fetch me at least 15-20% return in a year. Ramesh S Damani : Stocks like Mcdowell, Mcmillan seem good investments and good yield. deep : If Geometric does not give guidance dont you think there will will major sell off in the counter ? Ramesh S Damani : They are doing well, but want to avoid giving guidance. This is my view. baracuda : why has our hero dr vijay mallya gone and joined janata dalhe should in the first place be running the cos more efficientlyof all the things janata dal Ramesh S Damani : Management quality is not his strength. varun : hi i am new here. Plese tell me what is a liquor stock Ramesh S Damani : Companies like Mcdowell, United Breweries and Shaw Wallace. nowise3000 : please tell me whether macmillan india is worthy portfolio choice Ramesh S Damani : Yes I do. technovision : Hello Mr Damani,I am NRI from Taiwan, I am holding GTL(avg Price RS.85.00) and HFCL (avg price Rs.30.00),should i enter in these stocks at current prices, for a long term view? Ramesh S Damani : No. Avoid them. bagri : u will likely to stay invest in Honeywell.geometric.e-serve,tata infotech,TMT,Mc. Dowell,UB,Man Industries, UB Holding. Out of these stocks which stock u will invest if u have 1 lac. Ramesh S Damani : Add Mcmillan to the list at Rs 130. deep : Tata Honeywell : I rem u said Q4 is best for Honey well , what is your expection in Q4 and u think they will meet Ramesh S Damani : They should do Rs 19 crore for the full year. So Q4 should be good. StockLover : Now that IT is no longer considered to be a growth sector, shouldn't the smart money flow into the higher growth sectors such as ITES, retail, et al ? Ramesh S Damani : That would be logical. wannabe : Couldyou suggest some investment books ? Ramesh S Damani : One Up On Wall Street by Peter Lynch is a good place to begin. inv : Mr. Damani we are going for structural changes, Vajpayee comes with a statement one day that we should bloster the stock market, the next day there is a news report that PSU disinvestments will be delayed. This works out good for the people who use the media to trade in shares. Confidence in an investor is shaken. They don’t trust the market. They think it is meant for cartels. Don’t you think big private mutual funds who are selling their schemes based on muturity of the market, should lobby for changes. Ramesh S Damani : Unfortunately this is a free for all market. The rich and powerful never get punished. murali : RAMESHJI I AM HOLDING THE SHARES OF KREBS BIO SHAL I HOLD AND ADD MORE PLEASE RESPOND Ramesh S Damani : I would hold and the yield is good. I have a small amount. Ahmedabadguy : despite MNC status that rules out any pramoter integraty problem..good growth of 20 or more %..div. yeild of around 7-8%,,Still macmilan doesn't found strong hands..Any reason?? Ramesh S Damani : Sometimes the market makes errors. baracuda : mr reiki who is in charge of ub spirits div says that sales are good this year more than30million cases already sold exports are looking up and more brands to be aquired so why dont these stocks go up they also have to be nesw driven and will ub beer pay a dividend this year Ramesh S Damani : Profits are still low. I am not sure about a dividend in UB Beer. Mcdowell should pay something. sudhir : Damaniji, from my previous chats with you, I took mcdowell shares for 33.50 and i am in profit of 500 rupees now.. First of all I thank for that guidance.. Now i want to invest some more and which shall i go for??? Ramesh S Damani : Just hold on. Don't trade. bagri : U have said u know a way to bring them and the stock u buy at Rs. 20 will become 60/- pl. guide. Ramesh S Damani : I don't know a way. But it is easier for a Rs 20 stock to become Rs 60, than Infy to go back to Rs 10,000. JPN : Sir, Please tell me what is the future of Nedungadi Bank Shareholders?? Ramesh S Damani : I doubt you will get anything. anubrij : Ramesh bhai: Thanks for your earlier reply. One more quick question... What is your expectation regarding Orient Information of Technology? Earlier this stock gave me around 20% return in short interval. It is trading below 35 at present? Pl throw your views on this. Ramesh S Damani : I would avoid it. Sorry. bagri : Ramesh what about TVS - E, Apollo Hospital, BEL, BEML, Goldian International, MAx - pl. guide Ramesh S Damani : I hold them all and they all look good. kashish : Mr ramesh! why i don't get reply each time...what do u think of Iflex and Hexaware tech at current levels Ramesh S Damani : Avoid hexaware. i-flex let's wait for the results. Ahmedabadguy : Damaniji you have always said that you are watching Bharti stock but never said to buy..Stock has improved from 22 to 33 rs..50% jump in last quater despite very poor market..Now from here what is your view?? Ramesh S Damani : I am still looking unfortunately. fad : do u think mtnl and bsnl will be merged? if yes, will mtnl go down? Ramesh S Damani : Not likley if Mr Shourie is telecom minister. bagri : what about kale,comudyne and odysee technology Ramesh S Damani : I would avoid it. Ahmedabadguy : Damaniji I find it is time to add Max to portfolio as it seems bottomed out and has declined more then 100% from its fancy levelof 110-130 rs..Your comment?? Ramesh S Damani : That would be 50 per cent, not 100 per cent. Earnings are still a problem. RajAnand : Damaniji sarkar hame bhi to batau for Pentamedia? Ramesh S Damani : I would avoid it. AnandB : Sir,do you know any low price stock that can tripple?Are you looking for any stock like that or do you feel that Tata Honeywell,Eserve,Geometric can go up 4 to 5 times?Pls advise.Geometric,Tata Honeywell etc Ramesh S Damani : When the time comes, I will inform the members of the chat. I do like and am hopeful of the shares you mentioned. guptaone : rameshji! it's surprising for me as u r not answering to the quieries which u keep track! ie on ub & kingfisher regarding their 3rd quarter results & listing on nse! Ramesh S Damani : Results are out. I have no idea why it is not listed on NSE. Maybe due to low market cap. sammy : Rameshji why should anyone even consider buying bharti televentures at any price when Bharti telecom delisted from the exchanges paying a fraction of the market cap of bharti televentures although it held a substantial stake in that companay. This for me was wrong ethics and hence I have kept away from this stock. Any comments Ramesh S Damani : I also remember that. That is why I am wary about the company. Anand b : Hughes soft. given a guideance of 30 to 40% growth projection for coming years contrary to infy guidence ....... what do u expect whether they will meet it? Ramesh S Damani : Track record is poor. It is not very cheap. bagri : The stocks u recommeded eatrlier and as of now are almost available at that prices or cheap. Do u feel it is right time to add them or we should wait for market to take one more jolt or which stock we should buy at current prices. Ramesh S Damani : Buy them when you think they are cheap. Don't time the market. It cannot be done. shridharan : Mr.Damani i have always held the view that good quality analyst always will find multibaggers in any market-your views? Ramesh S Damani : Not in any market. But you should have 10-20 in your career. amitsbhatia : Good Evening sir please give your views should hero honda be bought at these levels Ramesh S Damani : It is a good defensive bet with yield. I own it. inv1 : Mr. Damani, Broad thinking person like you should not be only a stock broker, you should aim for something high maybe take up a position in SEBI, where your ideas will have a better say. Ramesh S Damani : Thanks for the kind words. Brokerage is a poor business anyway. Thanks all and see you next week. Bye. |