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'Market expects NDA to win polls'Mumbai, January 13, 2004: 'Markets will remain buoyant. Market expects the NDA to come back with a good majority,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.sundararaghavan : how do you see the markets in January? Ramesh S Damani : they look healthy and should remain buoyant. Prasun : hello . good afternoon sir,i am a new comer in the stock market. but interested in it. can you suggest me any Indian book to know the basics of the stock market. Ramesh S Damani : no Indian book but try to read One Up On Wall St by Peter Lynch. It is a good intro dc : Mr. Damani do u think it is better to buy gail & ongc from the secondary market or wait for ipo? What do u think will the ipo price of ONGC and GAIL be around? Ramesh S Damani : they should give it at a big discount to indian investors. it will allow new people in the market and create excitement. IndiaBull : Hello Ramesh! I missed the earlier rally, but now, at Rs 41 UBHoldings looks a reasonable bet for hte medium term. I read that a residential real estate boom is underway in Bangalore. Is this company likely to benefit greatly from that? Any other major positive that you like about UB Holdings? Thank you!!! Ramesh S Damani : they will benefit from a real estate boom in bangalore. UB coty is next to M. G. Road. they have a good portfolio of liquor and other shares too. but be patient, i own it maniyan : dear sir, please your comment on infy after this q3 results Ramesh S Damani : things look okay except for the fear of Rs rising against dollar IndiaBull : Please suggest if Solectron has any major fundamental improvements on the horizon, and is it looking like a sustainable business to you? Appears technically strong from today's move. Any comments from you would be greatly appreciated. Ramesh S Damani : getting orders from defense industry. however it looks well priced to me manipulator : RD do u beleive in technical analyis?? which is the best way to make money in intra day?? Ramesh S Damani : Yes. I don't know newkid : Dear Sir, You are bullish on the media sector. Also we hear from various quaters that upturn of media(Especailly the Film Making) after the downfall in past 2 years. Every stock in that sector had more than doubled in last 2-3 months. PNC also had a very good run in past fortnight. Even After having the huge brand name of subhash Ghai, why is mukta not rising? Do you have any info about this? Ramesh S Damani : i think it will take some time, but they will do well. i own it Newbieatstock : Sir my portfolio doesn't have any large caps and most of the stocks are not really moving, i wanted to add some large caps to it, one stock i like is SBI, i think it has a long way to go, anything else you like in the big boys. Ramesh S Damani : sbi is my best bet in large caps. itc, reddy, dr reddy are other ideas. i own all of them jayaram : good afternoon sir, is goldiam stuck in a range? Ramesh S Damani : most cash shares are. i am optimistic it will break out after q2 results dc : Mr. Damani, I am a great fan of yours and with all due respect I'd like your opinion on whether experts (with a good following) and in advisory role have a social obligation and should not advise people to promote companies involved in the business promoting social evils like drinking and smoking which have far reaching consequences. Ramesh S Damani : its a good question. however as long as it is legal i think we should not ignore it. the govt should ban it if it is illegal. i am all in favour of choice. people must decide for themselves manipulator : how much time do u spend in reading per day or week?? Ramesh S Damani : 3 hours per day; more on weekends nkrana : Your advise on Kale Consultants pls? Can this be considered for investment at the prevailing rate? Ramesh S Damani : i have started following it. looks okay at current prices. i own it malik : sir, there is restructure story for IFCI and it is likely to be completed in 3 month (By 31st March 04) .There will lot of interest in the script .What is your view whether to buy or not Ramesh S Damani : i would avoid it. ifci is a poorly run co in my opinion baracuda : the next phase of india's growth should come from the infrastructure sector so would yu regard beml as an infrastructure play and is it a good investment at current levels I bought it at 17and then sold it at 80. a terrible mistake Ramesh S Damani : i think that is a good observation. beml will do well over the next few years. buy some back. i own it sanujkadavil : Sir Mcdowells shareholding pattern changing. One of the FIIs now holds over 1.1%, till December public holding was 47%. Now it has come down to 38%. And some 7% hold by private corporate bodies. What u mean by private corporate bodies? I think some shift is happening shareholding pattern of mcdowell like ,reliance , when reliance counter was overhang when uti was a consistant seller year before , now uti's holding come from the peak of 11% to 2 %,. But reliance rise over 100%.. like in mcdowells public share holding is coming down and fiis increasing their stake… Ramesh S Damani : that would be a bullish for the company. it will take time to unlock value-but it will happen. These businesses cannot remain at this valuations forever manipulator : why does a rich and busy guy like u need to come for chats?? Ramesh S Damani : i enjoy it. its fun baracuda : dont yu feel that the long term prospects especially for gail are fantastic this is a gas deficient country, also gas is the cheapest and cleanest source of fuel,and we are only beginning to create india's only gas pipeline network, not to forget that 3pipelines one from Iran, one from Turkmenistan and one from Bangladesh are all going to eventually come to India and connect to the Gail pipelie gail at a discount is a fantastic buy Ramesh S Damani : the script ran ahead of fundamentals. however for long-term investors, it makes sense apy : today there is one expert says Balaji will touch 200 .what do u say on it ? Ramesh S Damani : i am bullish on it. i own it., my targets over 2 years are higher lavanya : Hello Sir, I am basically new to the stock market, but have inherited shares of some good companies like ITC,Reliance,Dr Reddy's, Jindal Steel, Raymonds, L&T in quantities 50-150 from my father. I dont intend to sell them entirely but would also like to trade actively in the market. Any suggestions? Any new issues I could invest in? Thanks in advance Ramesh S Damani : a whole bunch of issues are coming. we will have to review them. i would advice you not to trade but invest ssunil : sir ifci is not well managed. however idbi is profit making co and with damodaran/jaswant singh/bjp govt steel/textile recovering it could be multibagger if it gets converted into commercial bank Ramesh S Damani : it is better to buy the bank it will be merged into. i odnt like cos that receive handouts every 5 years vikas : I am really concerned about Macmillan price movement. It has again come down from 305 level. Is there any negative news or we can still hold for long term Ramesh S Damani : nothing that i am aware of. it has not caught fancy. however I believe the fundamentals are in place jayaram : please, sir, do u have any idea on Binani Zinc. All other scrips have gone up considerably in this bull run but not binani zinc. what could be the reason Ramesh S Damani : no idea, sorry Thandapani : Is BEML inexpensive relative to earnings anticipated. I mean is P/E ratio and market cap reasonable now? Ramesh S Damani : it was in expensive at 30. today it must deliver, however i beleive they are having a good year vikas : Infotech Enterprises : I have been asking for last 3 chats , how do u see infotech at current price. Will u believe management that margins will be expanding from 3rd Q onwards Ramesh S Damani : I think they are coming through a bad patch and should be recovering. i would hold on, i own a small qty maniyan : do you expect any problem in bpo stocks because in the USA lot of unemployment hue and cry is there. please comment Ramesh S Damani : it is a worry but it will be overcome dc : What do u think is a good pick in paper industry - bilt or TNPL? Ramesh S Damani : tnpl and pudumjee pulp in specaility paper Rnjith : sir I am having tisco@221 and tata power at 160. please advice Ramesh S Damani : i would hold on. i own both kana : Neyveli: Why is it stagnant in spite of people like you recommending it? Ramesh S Damani : it has gone from Rs 6 to Rs 80 in 2 years. that is not stagnant gopal : how r the markets going to react in view of the forthcoming elections? Ramesh S Damani : i think they will remain buoyant., market expects NDA to come back with a good majority vikas : Are u convinced with shipping cos. coming out with very good nos. , if yes any mid cap scrip coming to your mind Ramesh S Damani : rates are high traffic is booming. i am trading in varun around 30 sanujkadavil : Sir Any News On Herbrtsons Deal 9th Jan was SC hearing..i have one doubt how Mr Chabbria bought 49% in Herbertsons, a UB promoted company? Ramesh S Damani : no news. they will reach a settlement with herbertsons going to Mallya HiDamani : Which is a good mutual fund to invest into? Ramesh S Damani : morgan stanley growth or hdfc growth fund look okay to me vikas : Mcdowell : There was report that Mallaya owns 50% in Shaw Wallace by HK court . What significance this news is and does it has any relevance to Mcdowell Ramesh S Damani : nothing they just seem to litigate while ignoring shareholders, level of corporate governance is pathetic singaraj : Sir, what could be the valuation (BE ratio) and net margin of MC if (only if and just for a reference to have some big picture) it is a US company of same volume(say 30mn cases) ? Ramesh S Damani : bacardi (italy) is the same size in volume as mcdowell. they are being valued by Goldman at $15 billion(US$), You do the math Newbieatstock : sir a while back you had recommended chowgale which did very well, any other small cap you have in mind (other than logix or goldiam) Ramesh S Damani : not bought any other low price stock. added some goldiam recently am : Sir, Dredging Corp.. Should it be picked from market at this rate or wait for IPO.. What's the prospect for this co. Ramesh S Damani : they are doing well and will be a good pick in the ipo market kana : Neyveli: Most of the stock have gone from 8 to 300 Eg Jindal steel.. Ramesh S Damani : if you complain about 10 baggers I cant help you,sorry ssunil : sir idbi will continue to work as standalone entity and will be converting its existing branches into bank we must not forget role which idbi has played in industrialisation of India Ramesh S Damani : i am more cynical about what they have done rao : if the u.s. markets taper-off , will the Indian stock market also follow suit ?? ... or do you see a divergence ? Ramesh S Damani : in the short run they will fall due to a fall in us prices Newbieatstock : Sir the volumes on the nse have been very high, you think in the long run this could pose a threat to the bse, the blunt question is do u think the bse will be wiped out in a few years to come, and do u think the f and o markets is extremly crucial for the bse to take off. Ramesh S Damani : it is and it is a legitimate worry we need 2 players in the market to keep each other honest sanujkadavil : sir, most of the scrip gone up substantially.. not we are compelled to look value stocks..did you strike any new sector or companies which long term prospects looks good... Ramesh S Damani : nothing really new dc : A lot of people are saying that the liquidity will be squeezed out of the market with the big IPOs. What is your opinion? Ramesh S Damani : it could especially with ongc that may cap the secondary market Newbieatstock : sir whats your timeframe for goldiam and whats the investment rationale. Ramesh S Damani : they could do earnings of Rs 20-22 crs on an equity of13 crs. so the stock is cheap. business is growing well. they will pay a dividend ofRs 4 or so (2 paid) so you geta yield. I think 25% of the turnover comes from wall mart jayaram : sir, have u seen any scrips for trading which are about to break out Ramesh S Damani : i am trading in elecon enginerring nkrana : Rich personalities like you share their experiences and views in such talks for value investing for the betterment of the investing public. Please mentioned your five top businesses in the present scenerio for LT. Thanx Ramesh S Damani : thanks. a lot of people have helped me and its nice to be useful. with gdp growing at 8%must business will do well. remain invested. Newbieatstock : sir do you have any auto/auto ancillary stock in your portfolio or anything that u think could be added Ramesh S Damani : i recntly added siemens vdo in my portfoloio. it is at 88 and looking at siemens growth they seem they could turn around earnings are spotty yet, so be careful. deepak : Good evening sir, what is your view on Videocon Appliances, today it had a sharp move with huge volumes Ramesh S Damani : they are doing well in the current year sanujkadavil : sir I am inviting you to come to kerala. gods own country for your next holiday trip. we will welcome u warmly Ramesh S Damani : thanks simplyfine : Mr Damani - EID Parry seems to have an interesting mix of businesses. They have a strong brand in the sanitary ware business which is linked to the housing boom. Also cross holdings which are of substantial value... Any views ? Ramesh S Damani : yes in parry's confectionery raj : Hello Sir, what are views on stock market what theory should be adopted by an investor to buy hold or sell . if buy then which scrips to be bought in current market. any multibagger shares with longterm prospective. I like your word Conviction Ramesh S Damani : conviction is developed not purcahsed, it will take time and experience amit : sir , i `m having varun shipping 1000@18 ,should i hold or sell them at current price? Ramesh S Damani : i would hold maniyan : dear sir before leaving this chat room, please yr comment on bpcl/hpcl/ioc? Ramesh S Damani : remain invested in them. they are doing well vikas : Would u like to add macmillan, UB and Mcdowell at present rate Ramesh S Damani : no i have a good qty of all 3. dc : Do u think that a new comer in the markets can invest and make a good portfolio with appropriate asset allocations, out of the various IPOs from different sectors by the end of 2004? Ramesh S Damani : i would suggest invest in good cos, whether in ipo/secondary market rao : Gold prices are still shooting up! ... it doesn't augur too well for the stock markets , does it ?... why is global smart money cornering gold ? is there bad news round the corner? Ramesh S Damani : i think that maybe because the US$ has been falling. most commodities are priced in $. singaraj : What is the net margin of Bacardi and also the PE? Ramesh S Damani : i don't have the numbers handy. check them on the net, Thanks all for joining. see you next week. bye |