| Categories | ||
  POLITICS & GOVERNANCE[2001 onwards] POLITICS & GOVERNANCE[1996-2000] MOVIESMUSICSPORTSBUSINESSNATIONAL SECURITYINTERNATIONAL AFFAIRSINFOTECHSOCIETYSTYLELIVETRAVELSCIENCEELECTION'99ELECTIONS '98 | ||
'The market is in a bull run'Mumbai, August 12, 2003: 'Stocks could go much higher from here. If you are an investor with conviction you will do well,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.peterlynch : you in your previous chats said that ongcwas not worth looking at today it is the most recomended shareare yu going to change your viewon ongc Ramesh S Damani : Sorry for being late. Let's start. It still remains too high on market cap basis. If the government were too disinvest 10 per cent of ONGC at any time, it would represent a permanent high for the stock. DSOUZA : In your so many years of experience in the market, do you think our markets are now taking a mature course for good? If so what should be the fair value of the BSE index today Ramesh S Damani : Market may be in a new bull run. In that case market action is making sense. sanjana : sir can i have ur opinion on GSK PHARAMA which i have purchased @410 and TISCO @215 Ramesh S Damani : Both look good in the context of an ongoing bull market. I own Tisco. prashanth : Sir, you were caught on the wrong side on Opto Circuits. You booked profits at Rs. 55 whereas it is Rs. 70 now. What do you think sir? Ramesh S Damani : I sold half at those rates. I sold some at current time. It looks well priced currently. abcd : do yu feel macmillan is in the race for tata pressnow tata infomediaif so will it be positive for the co Ramesh S Damani : I doubt it. They are not bidding for Tata Infomedia. DSOUZA : Some guy Samer Arora was caught for insider trading, however the market showed resliance, do you think the market is maturing Ramesh S Damani : The charges are sweeping and will change the nature of the markets. In a bull market typically this is an opportunity to buy. charu : Hello sir ,is Gillete good buy at this price of 480 .what is the potential of stock in next 3 months Ramesh S Damani : I think they will do well over the next 2-3 years. However I have no idea about the price movement over the next three months. I own it. manish : Can you comment on Sintex. George Sorros group has 44% holding. Plastic division is showing robust growth and they have good product range. EPS '03 was 16+. They also have 30% sale in Textile. Ramesh S Damani : I was not aware of Soros' holding. shah : Sir,Have you any idea of how big a company like CUMMINS become? They have projected a growth of 5000% in their sales by 2005.If yes pl reflect your views Ramesh S Damani : 5000% seems to be incorrect. AnandBhatt : Hello Sir,would you still recommend MAcmillan at 230? Ramesh S Damani : Yes. vikas5 : We have a feeling of being left out in this rally. Literally everything is going up except our shares. WhAT should we do Ramesh S Damani : Tech is generally not performing but Tata Infotech is up from140 to 270, McMillan from 130 to 230. DSOUZA : You might be knowing that interst rates of NRI money have been greatly reduced, dont you think this money is waiting on the sidelines which could push the market into a different orbit ? Ramesh S Damani : That is what is happening. That has been the fuel for the market. truly : Mr Damani - have you looked at the MNC Pharma sector - we are getting close to 2005... The potential from blockbuster drugs from parent seems to be something we shd not ignore..market seems to be waking up to this ? Ramesh S Damani : That is correct. Glaxo, Aventis, Burroughs and Wyeth are good stocks to look at. truly : SBI seems to be making all the right noises - technology, new services, ATM network etc.. Looks like immense possibilities.. what could be a dampener for the stock ? Ramesh S Damani : It is in a bull market. Price dips are buying opportunities. I own it. sunil : do u still feel that enough steam is left in tata infotech or the rally is over Ramesh S Damani : Some steam seems to be left. manish : Soros group Bought stake at 65 in 98. Can check out shareholding pattern on BSEINDIA.com or company's website sintex-india.com. Plastic Division is growing by 25%. And they have wonderful product range. Ramesh S Damani : I will look at it. Thanks ash : will it be wise to hold HPCL AT RS. 354/ PER SHARE ... KINDLY SUGGEST Ramesh S Damani : Hold on. rahul1308 : Do you feel that the Ben Graham strategy of asset backed value picks can work/has worked in the Indian market? Ramesh S Damani : Yes it can. Many PSUs fill this niche. AnandBhatt : Sir,you had said once earlier that if ruppe dips below 46 ,its a cause for worry.It did dip today and Ashank Desai of Mastek said its a cause for worry at 45.5 levels.Especially cos which opreate on a 20 to 30 % margin.Sir that means its bad times ahead for Geometric,Eserve and all the other tech.I own Geoametric bought at 450 levels,do you see it tanking in the next quaeter?Should I sell off at a loss.Its a big loss.Also I own Eserve bought at 500.its 600+ .SHould I sell off as it might go back to 500 with the strengthenening rupee.Your advise please.Thanks Ramesh S Damani : I would be worried about it. But I am frozen in the headlights too. Near term margins are going to fall. However, they (tech companies) will have to become more productive like Japanese auto people. It may not be for the faint hearted. derrivator : damani sir, is it advisable to hold on to NALCO and GAIL? Ramesh S Damani : Yes. I own both newbieeatstock : sir where can i read about the histroy of the compaines and the sectors.... i would like to know the past of the varous sectors and companies as well, what makes them what they are today and how did they get there...... where can i get good detalied infomation about the changes the indian companies and economy have gone through ? Ramesh S Damani : No one source I can recommend, just read journals, magazines etc to be updated. It takes time. Ahmedabadguys : Mr. Damani MNC pharma like gsk, aventis are still available here at very steep discount to the p/e they trades into other market but still the smart chasing indian pharma with outsourcing still the main driver for their new highs..and some large brokerages sees hugh upside in them...your views please.... Ramesh S Damani : Market sees immediate profit in Indian pharma (Lupin, Matrix) as profits start rolling in for MNCs they too will get a discount. sunil : ramesh one thing entire market is moving but textile stocks like mahavir/vardhaman/zodiac/sh. raj. syntes have not moved at all.What is your take on it.Wha Ramesh S Damani : I think they will. Things are falling in place. truly : Among big caps - HDFC. Does the price factor in earnings from the Insurance & Asset mgmt businesses ? The home finance mkt is booming as well and this is a company with zero NPAs .. Ramesh S Damani : Yes but home financing is now competitive. Take a look at Sundaram Finance also. Very cheap. subodhgk : I have decent holding in McDowell but it is not going anywhere. In light of excise duty reduction in Karnatak, I have bought Khoday and thinking of buying some more shaw wallace. What's ur view ? Ramesh S Damani : McDowell will not move with the market. It will move when Mr Mallya decides to unlock values. It can be very frustrating to own such stocks in a bull market. cas : i am trying for the last 5 sessions please do tell 5 scrips to invest at this poin Ramesh S Damani : You can try some financing/banking companies. I own Sundaram Finance (150), Bank of Punjab (23), Godrej Consumer Product (119). caterpiller : could yu please advice me on i flex i had bought it at 500 what should i do hold sell or buy more please advice i dont know what to do Ramesh S Damani : I would hold on. You have a margin of safety, the company seems to be doing the right things. AnandBhatt : SIr,since the growth in auto and pharma stocks is also being driven by the outsourcing story.dont do think the rupee problem will be a cause trouble for these sectors too? Ramesh S Damani : It should. I think the market is rewarding companies with exposure to rupee assets not dollar assets, as it has in the last 10 years. NAGPAL : Sir, I also want to know that whether the Government is divesting its stake in Hindustan Organic Chemicals Ltd. (HOCL) or not because I am holding the shares. Ramesh S Damani : I think they are selling. udayk : Rameshji Please let me know your opinion about SPANCO TELESYSTEMS; They are big time in BPO and managaing BSNL, AIR India outsourcing services Ramesh S Damani : I am going to take a closer look at them. No opinion at the current time. SIVA : GOOD AFTERNOON TO YOU MR DAMANI JI. HOW LONG COULD THE SENSEX GO UP THE LADDER. IT IS RATHER FRIGHTENING TO TAKE ANY POSITIONS AT THIS HIGHER LEVELS. YOUR VIEW ON THE PRESENT SCENARIO AND CALL ON ANY SPECIFIC STOCKS SIR ? Ramesh S Damani : It seems we are in a bull market in that case stocks could go much higher from here. Remember if you are an investor with conviction you will do well. Steve : I am an NRI. I am a bit confused as to why NRI's r not allowed to do day trading. They cannot sell unless they have taken delivery. do u know the reason for this. A lot of NRI money is waiting on the sidelines becoz of this. Ramesh S Damani : I am not sure. Maybe Sebi can answer that. Ahmedabadguys : Sir I am looking at the overall all market and also movement of mcdowell stock specially for last few days..It seems like we may finally have next few months good in terms of some rise of macdowell prise...What your hawk senses tells you?????? Ramesh S Damani : It could. However like I always say. This is for patient guys. truely : Him Seide had a great Q1. Were you able to analyse the results.. Are they finally growing. Value + growth + great corp governance could be a lethal combination ! Ramesh S Damani : Quarterly results were good, yet growth is poor. Ahmedabadguys : Sir have you seen Gati's result..Do you feel it has become risk free buy now around 46-47 like what macmilan was around 165-170 range after its result...Like macmilan Gati has been a good part of my holding... Ramesh S Damani : Gati results, dividend was good. It is cheap but I see no trigger to move the stock higher. rki : What's your take on Banking stocks ... J&K Bank Ramesh S Damani : Looks good. SIVA : Sir, could you please tell whether Tech analysis is a reliable analysis.What should be the parameters of selecting stocks for short term trading and long term investment. I think buy and hold strategy for quite a long term will not fetch in the long run at least in the Indian scenario. Your opinion sir? Ramesh S Damani : Tech is another tool to use, basically select stocks for growth or value. I would not rely on tech alone that would have prompted you to buy all the K-10 stocks. That would have been a disaster. Ahmedabadguys : Sir You have small amount in radicokhaitan stock also...It seems Mr. khaitan is working towards unlocking value in the company by becoming more investor PR relationship building.....Also quaterly result is very good...around 38 I feel very compelling value buy..May be smart money from biggies need the attention...your views... Ramesh S Damani : Looks good. apte : sir what do u think of selling 50 % macmillan & buying tata honeysecondly i baught 1042 shares of bpcl year back what should i do ? Ramesh S Damani : I would not do that. Keep BPCL. SIVA : Sir, I have seen you many a time advicing investors to invest with conviction.Would you please briefly explain how to arrive at conviction and its time horizon. What is the procedure that you have adopted for many years to arrive at this? Please answer this Sir. Ramesh S Damani : Understand what you are buying and why you are buying. For example in1999 I was convinced that PSU would be disinvested. No one believed me. But the stocks were so cheap I held them despite a blow off rise in tech. The bet paid of in 2002.Only conviction could lead me to hold these stocks. rki : Shree Raj Synt has shown losses in quarter jun'03. Do u still recommend it. pls answer. Ramesh S Damani : Yes. Look at the market cap. You are paying 15 cr for a company worth much much more. Ahmedabadguys : Sir around 230-250 range macmilan stock has attained around 15 p/e for the current year expected eps of arounf 16-18 rs...Does it seems fairly valued at this range for few quaters till new triggers kicks in..If any?? Ramesh S Damani : My estimate for Dec 3 is Rs 21-22. SIVA : When are you next going to appear on CNBC. I can hardly afford to miss your analysis. If possible would you be kind enough to give the schedule of your appearance on CNBC? Ramesh S Damani : It is a bit unstructured and with the recent Arora problem I would like to wait. harish : I got Hindustan Ink for 272, I want to know about prospects for Hindustan Ink and Resins? Is it a hold or sel? Ramesh S Damani : I don't follow it closely but I would tend to hold it. maha : Sir, Business Today (latest issue) under sector watch "in high spirits" reported that Karnataka Govt. is toying with a substantial reduction in pricing and accessibility of liquor for the consumer and Maharashra, Tamilnadu, A.P., Orissa are also in a liberalising mode to enhance their revenues. With Parliament elections in sight, do you see any possibility of quick decision by these states in the near future? In such a scenario, the valuations of liquor scrips especially Mcdowell will skyrocket. Pl. comment. Ramesh S Damani : It will happen. Beer will be freely available in grocery stores. However it won't happen in a quarter. Be patient. You are buying something cheap. apte : sir please comment on iocl i am iocl executive what has happened to this stock we donot understand ? Ramesh S Damani : I am sorry , but what happened ? rki : Could u pls suggest few stocks with intrinsic growth like u suggestted Geometric at 45-50, MPhasis, eserve at around 150. Ramesh S Damani : Take a hard look at McMillan, in my tech universe that has the best risk reward ratio. I own it. jitendra : mr damani pls tell me the future prospects of silverline tech Ramesh S Damani : Poor Ahmedabadguys : So even at 21-22 rs. eps a debt free MNC company growing at 20-25% with outsourcing story push back and also a push of bull market ...What is your expected P/E for the company????? Ramesh S Damani : The trick in McMillan is the growth in 2004, 2005 for ITES. This year it should be 50%. If it can grow at that rate in 04,05 with its 50 per cent margins it is going to catch fire. Very few stocks in your lifetime you will find growing at 50 per cent and giving you 50 per cent margins. It is rare. vikas7 : SUNDARAM FINANCE : DO YOU CONSIDER AS GOOD AS MACMILLAN Ramesh S Damani : It's a different call. Great and conservative management. Very cheap. newbieeatstock : sir in liqour u are recommending only mcdowell and ub holdings nothing else comparable to the two of them right ?? Ramesh S Damani : Maybe Radico Khiatan. Thanks all for joining. See you next week.Bye |