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'Sensex may double in 3 years'Mumbai, February 10, 2004: 'Buy good companies and don't worry too much about macro factors,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.AkshathReddy : I have bought 500 shares of Godrej Industries @ Rs. 70, 500 shares of WelspunGujarat @ Rs. 49 and 500 shares of Logix Micro @ Rs. 34. All have fallen after i purchased, and are quoting much below. What should i do? Hold them still or book LOSSES? Ramesh S Damani : Hello everybody thanks for joining. Let's start. I am optimistic on Logix, Godrej. Remember good investment take time to mature, so be patient. I own both. HelloDamani : HI,ACCORDING TO THE SURVEY OF DSP-MERYLL LYNCH , FUND MANAGERS ARE BEARISH ABOUT THE FMCG SECTOR. DOES THAT MAKE YOU CHANGE YOUR PERCEPTION REGARDING COLGATE PALMOLIVE?OR DO U STILL SEE THIS SCRIP TOUCHING 200/- BY THE END OF THIS YEAR?THANKS IN ADVANCE Ramesh S Damani : Market is made up by difference of opinion. I remain optimistic at this valuation. dinesh : hello sir i hold tata teleservices at 23 in very very heavy quantity plz comment abt the future of this stock Ramesh S Damani : I don't follow it closely but I think they will do well. HelloDamani : ON MONEYCONTROL.COM , THERE IS A REPORT WHICH STATES ITC TO TOUCH 2000/- IN 2 YEARS TIME ? YOU AGREE WITH THIS OR MORE BULLISH THAN THIS OR MORE BEARISH THAN THIS?THANKS IN ADVANCE Ramesh S Damani : It is a conservative investment. Good cash flows and high dividend, I have no price target. I own it. Also being a domestic business they are not affected by dollar fall. kvg : sirrrrrrrrrrrrrrr, since the market is in the range do u see market correcting go down again . Ramesh S Damani : Market looks to be in a range. I don't expect it to make a sustained new high (6250-6300) over the next few months. anupta : Sir what is your view on beml ? can i buy now at rs 190. are u still bullish about it as before ? thanks Ramesh S Damani : I think they will do well over the next few years. However at 190 it is not risk free. I would remain invested in it but be careful. chaanda : hello pl ENLIGHTEN ME AS I HAVE FEW DEAD STOCKS LIKE CABLE CORPORATION, RUSODY ,OSWAL AGRO AND FEW MORE. WHAT CAN BE DONE AF AT ALL ANYTHING MAY BE DONE... Ramesh S Damani : Write it of to education. dinesh : sifr what do u say abt the banking sector i hold almost every bank how do u see the future of this sector Ramesh S Damani : They will do well. I would prefer SBI or private banks. vinaydixit : sir,we need your valuable guidance in coming ipo which ipo should be considered as you will appreciate lot of investor got stuck with high premium/low quality papers during last two bull markets.Pl suggest what should be strategy for petronet/biocon/ongc/gail/ipcl/dredging corp/cmc Ramesh S Damani : I would need to see the price band. I would be too enthusiastic about ONGC. It's too early to make a call. dinesh : sir do u think that there is any possibilty of ongc touchin 2000 in the futue Ramesh S Damani : It would surprise me. martinscorner : what happens to the stock market when interest rates may go up in the second half and also what happens then to the rising rupee Ramesh S Damani : Stocks fall when interest rate rises. However rise will be subdued as forex reserves are strong. kvg : sirrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr, you were recommending suven pharma last year. is it worth considering now or should i wait for some more correction Ramesh S Damani : Not at these prices. vikas5 : Please advise on INFOTECH ENTERPRSIS after its Q3 result and looking forward its relationship with Bombardier and P&W Ramesh S Damani : Company has not delivered, very spotty earnings. Management seems to be unsure. However keep watching it. Bond : Did Jim Rogers' have any positive views on any sectors? It seems to me that he may completely miss out on this bull run if he doesn't take a serious look at the strong potential for India's growth!!!! Ramesh S Damani : He likes commodity bases companies (sugar, coffee and the like). martinscorner : ub beer has announced lower beer sales even when the economy has been growing also bottles are causing a big problem results have been poor and the share has come back to the price at which yu recomended it do yu still see any life in this co or was it a great exit oppurinity at 140 Ramesh S Damani : The brewery stocks are giving a lot of trouble. It has been very frustrating but try to keep your eyes on the long-term prize. This is not a quarter-on-quarter stock. Take it over 3 years. kcs123 : Dear Sir,What are the prospects for Abhieshek industries ? Ramesh S Damani : Sorry, don't follow it day to day. kpg : Good evening Sir ,what is your call on Neyveli,balaji tele , gail,CEAT Tyers. Ramesh S Damani : Balaji looks great. Neyveli and Gail are for conservative investors. CEAT I would ignore. I own the first three. BASANTM : I have written a small article on the Retail sector and its possibilities on Value notes. Did you get a chance to go through it.If not please do so I would be happy and delighted to receive your feed back. Ramesh S Damani : Thanks, I will try to do it. vikas5 : Any sugar script which attracts you. Are u still buying Tata coffee Ramesh S Damani : EID Parry looks okay to me. Not buying Tata Coffee Anand Binani : Sir,Gail issue will hit the market in the mid of March. What is your expectation at which price Govt. is going to Divest..... ? Ramesh S Damani : No one knows not even the govt. HelloDamani : EARLIER U WERE SAYING THAT CONSTRUCTION BUSINESS IS GOING TO BE THE NEXT BIG THING, KEEPING THAT IN MIND ... BEML SHOULD BE WELL PLACED -- OR YOU ARE NOT BULLISH ABT BEML AT THESE LEVELS?THANKS IN ADVANCE Ramesh S Damani : Risk/reward. Keep that in mind. Also BEML is a play on infrastructure more than pure construction kk : Sir,Mark Faber & Jim Rogers are both bullish on comodity.Then why not invest in Hindalco,Nalco,Balrampur etc ? Did you get a chance to meet him in person? Ramesh S Damani : Yes, I did. I have investment in Naclo. vikas5 : AGAIN : Last time also i asked yur views on VARUN shipping specially as i have good quanitity. This co. is consistent performer and any plan to expand its fleet will increase its margins. How do you view it Ramesh S Damani : I own a small quantity. Shipping is doing well so hold on. sureshmakhi : , sirpresntly which sector do u think is sunrise sector wether it is pharma power textile oil and gas Ramesh S Damani : Pharma and ITES look okay. However with 8 per cent GDP growth many sectors will do well. skb : ramesh loty of public issues. Pertonet sarting on 16th feb. Further listed comapny's are also coming out. If suppose all company's offer 25% less than the present market price which one do u feel will be better to invest. Ramesh S Damani : Still have no views. I think CMC will tend to do well over 2-3 years. The rest I have not decided. martinscorner : were yu surprised by what jim rogers said does he need to spend more time in india Ramesh S Damani : No. His views are well known. skb : ramesh, off late we are seeing that rally is only there in frontline stock and not mid caps. Ifn fact midcaps have fallen like nine pins in recent fal and almost all of them are 35-50% down from their recent high whereas the case is not for frontline. What do u fell in this case shal one sell midcap and come to frontline. If u have to buy midcaps which stocks do u feel will offer good value. Top 5 picks in mid cap Ramesh S Damani : I think mid cap offers good value. Here are 4 ideas for a basket : 1) Goldiam, (54); 2) Godrej Ind (55); 3) Opto circits (60). They are all low PE, good yield stocks. I own them all. For people who want high risk-but tech stock look at the following Logix Micro (28); Nelco (45); Kale COnsultants (40); Crest Comm around Rs 40-45 currently higher. These are more risky but have some thing special. I own them all. AnandBBhatt : Dear Sir,Azim Premji today said that the BPO backlash must not be taken lightly.He said if we are not careful other countries like phillipines,Russia will catch up.I did not catch the full story however.Do you have any idea.Thanks Ramesh S Damani : I think it is mainly US politics. Look at the results of ITES companies -- they have been strong. Ignore the bad news. Only worry about the dollar falling. The rest will take care of itself. xerxes : since the govt wud want the psu ipo to be a success, do you think it will rig the market to higher levels till march ? Ramesh S Damani : I don't think they can do that. sudhir : sir the scripts you recommend like macmillan & mcdowell do not run when the markets go higher, but takes a pounding when the markets fall. how then you are different from other analysts . i remember you told in the last chat that the real worth of a stock picker can be judged only when the markets fall.your comments pls Ramesh S Damani : McMillan has held its own. Remember I am talking about a bull and bear market that runs over time. See the fate of HFCL and Global versus other stocks. Also remember analysts can be wrong. sudhir : volumes in macmillan have dried up of late. whats next Ramesh S Damani : I was happy with the results. Let's hope they have a good 2004. First quarter should be good. xyx : is there any place where i can find data related to what FII have traded daily - I mean which scripts are bought and sold Ramesh S Damani : I don't think they publish this info. sureshmakhi : sir do u have any good picks in the sector which u think will do good dont u think that when gdp is good and due to good economic condition the purchasing power of common man will increase drastically and the benifit will gose to retail segment for long term is pantaloon and trent will be good bet Ramesh S Damani : It might be felt first in FMCG, finance co and the like. Building a retail business takes time. AnandBBhatt : Sir,How is Praj Industries at these levels?Whats the risk/reward ratio?DO you own it? Ramesh S Damani : I don't but it looks okay to me they are on a strong cycle. martinscorner : now that $25000 can be spent abroad and no questions asked dont yu feel that in a matter of months offshore funds could be a possibilty in india i mean i wanted to invest ina global commodities company fund bcos the nos of indian comm cos are few will this be possible Ramesh S Damani : Yes it would. That is exciting. kcs123 : Sir,What do you mean "good yield" stocks? Are you saying in terms of Dividend or capital appreciation? Ramesh S Damani : Dividend. jigs1 : Hi Ramesh, Your view on Ultra Marine please. Looks exciting after last 2 quarter results. Ramesh S Damani : I agree, hold on to it. vikas5 : Dont you forget to include BALAJI TELE in your mid cap receommended list Ramesh S Damani : That is a different list. mahaa : Sir, Godrej Ind. - despite good results, has not gone up much. Is it because of low float in the market- about 55.42 lakh shares (11.39%) or any other liabilities pending appropriation (the disputed lease rental of Rs. 10 cr. with Mumbai port trust was adjusted in Q3 results on S.C. decision - other wise the result would have been great) which is holding the stock from shooting up? Pl. advise Ramesh S Damani : Sometimes they take time. As long as the company delivers results and pays dividend, I would not worry. Market will take care of it. rki : shree raj synt has shown good qtrly performance. do u recomment it at around 8? Ramesh S Damani : My sense is they are getting ready for 2005. They could pay a dividend this year. I have sold some of my holding in the company. kk : Sir,You have been a long time fan of Jim Rogers. Any thing special discussion other than whats on TV? Another sector no one has spotted yet is "inherent intelectual" property of Indian civilisation.Like authentic views on Vedas,Upnishads, Gita,etc Only person who made billions from it is Deepak Chopra. There is nothing new in Chopra research but putting it in fine form. Pl your view. Macmillan can explore publication of some of these tritises? Ramesh S Damani : That is a good idea and a good example. It will happen thanks to digital technologies. Jim likes to buy at the bottom, so keep that in mind. I would remain invested in the market. xerxes : dont u think its naive to believe that the govt does not have the leverage to rig the market especially for short periods of 2-3 months ? Ramesh S Damani : Maybe I am naïve. sudhir : sir i invest in the scrips you recommend but seldom makes profitas the gestation period in making profit is quite large. It requires a lots of patience. I do like your recommendations but they take a lot of time to deliver. Why don't you suggest companies which are going to take off within the next few months. you identify a stock when it is a baby Ramesh S Damani : Every one has a style. I don't like buying momentum. You need to find what you are comfortable with. Remember if you can compound at 22 per cent you will be rich by the time you retire, I am trying to do that. balladsandblues : Few ears back you were thinking highly of TVS Electronics as an emerging BPO story.Your views on this company Ramesh S Damani : They have faltered but with GDP growth and good management they will comeback, this is a good price to get into it. vikas5 : Lot of analyst advise Alok Ind in textile . How u view it. Do u still prefer Zodiac only. Please also advise on SHREE RAJASTHAN SYNTEX , have you totally exited Ramesh S Damani : No. Zodiac is doing well. No view on Alok. xerxes : do you atleast agree that sebi has relaxed ipo rules to facilitate the forthcoming psu ipo ? Ramesh S Damani : Yes. newbiesiatstock : sir your basket of mid cap stocks whats the time frame you have in mind Ramesh S Damani : In the mid cap one year. In the tech basket two years. Baloni : Ramesh, please take a look at IP RINGS. Stock is a steady performer and is in the fast growing auto ancilalry business (piston rings, etc.)Your views are highly appreciated Ramesh S Damani : I will take a look at it. AnandBBhatt : Sir,Jim Rogers said he would not buy in India now because everyone is talking about stocks.Foreign money has poured in.He does not like buying in a boom.He is a contrarian.Any he says whenever FIIs enter anywhere,its mostly the top of the market.He would buy later this year some time-he feels ther might be a better opportunity.WHat do you feel? Ramesh S Damani : I would listen to Jim carefully. However, we are Indians and we need to invest in India. We cant invest overseas like he can. Good companies at good valuations are available. So I would remain invested. Consider his views but come to an independent decision. martinscorner : dont yu feel that life is going to bcom more difficult for indian textile cos post 2005 as china will flood the indian market with cheaper ok quality textiles they also have their textile infrastructure in place and ahuge export market opening for them and as the us dollar weakens so will the chinese rin rin bi as they have smartly pegged it to yhe us dollar Ramesh S Damani : They may have a few years of restriction post 2005. xerxes : ramesh, i'm sure you're not naive. its just that market members generally like to be on the right side of the govt Ramesh S Damani : I don't think the govt cares about Ramesh Damani's view. Look at 5,00,000 crore market cap you can't manipulate markets. balladsandblues : Though your logic on Mcdowell/UB is sound, values in these companies will not get unlocked because 1)Management 2)Political compulsions 3) Mode of business in liquor where more quantity sold as No.2 than on bill.Do you see my point because liquor business in india is a huge accumulator of black money Ramesh S Damani : Your analysis is correct. But foreign investment is coming in liquor forcing changes; 2) VAT will make it harder to steal; 3) The industry will be deregulated. If PSUs could be privatised surely liquor will be deregulated. It won't happen next month that's for sure though. jims : Sir, Jim Rogers is not impressed with India Shining Story. He says the boom in Indian markets is coming to an end. Will it effect our markets take a u turn? In such a case what would be the target on the down side? pl advise. Ramesh S Damani : Buy good companies and don't worry too much about macro factors. You can't control them. Smart businessman will find a way to make money. kk : Sir,Thanks for assuring that "remain invested " & "take your independant view" Jim Rogers has invested in Indian Hotel but a small investor like us can invesyt in Taj Gvk? Your view please.... Ramesh S Damani : Sure you can. Market pays for conviction. Have conviction in your picks. People convinced about PSU. Pharma had huge paydays. It took time but it happened, learn to think for yourself. vikas5 : Please suggest one of the followingZodiac or Sundaram FIn althought both are different Ramesh S Damani : If one buys Sundaram Finance. rki : ur view on visualsoft technologies. its entered into BPO. showing consistent growth about 25% for last 11 tough quarters for IT. Pls answer. Ramesh S Damani : I am keeping an eye on it. AnandBBhatt : Do you get worried about the flood of IPOs[mainly the value] coming into the market in the next 2 months.Today even ICICI announced they they want to raise 3000Cr.All this is not positive for the secondary markets. Ramesh S Damani : That is correct and may push the market in a trading range. newbiesiatstock : Sir do u generally tendf to buy more illiquid stocks Ramesh S Damani : Not necessarily, I have bought SBI, GAIL. rki : do u still think sensex will double from current level? Ramesh S Damani : Maybe over the next 3 years. Thanks all for joining. See you next week. Bye |