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'The United States is not India. It does not turn its other cheek.'
Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : Hi. I am here. Let's
start.
Mallik : Hello Mr Chellaney do you think Osama will be
handed over to China or Saidi Arabia? Brahma Chellaney, Security
Analyst : Bin Laden, being the son-in-law of the one-eyed Taliban
chief, is part of the Taliban family. However, he is a thorn in the Pakistani
flesh as he has tried to make the Taliban less dependent on the ISI and
Islamabad since he returned to Afghanistan in 1996. Pakistan will be quite happy
to go after him to please the Bush White House and eliminate a 'troublemaker'.
But eliminating him will not be easy. Nor will that be the main or major
objective of the Americans.
Farid : Mr Chelaney do you really think the US will be
able to pull off what the Russains failed to do in 10 years? Brahma
Chellaney, Security Analyst : The United States is not foolish to
get bogged down in Afghanistan, Soviet-style. Their strategy will be to punish
and dislodge the Taliban, not to occupy a country that has a reputation of being
a graveyard for foreign troops.
jasjit : Is the Pakistani government exaggerating the
internal threat it faces if it supports American action against the Taliban in
order to improve it’s bargaining position vis-ŕ-vis the West ? While links
between the state and militant outfits are undeniable, just how much influence
does the state exert over these terrorist groups? Brahma Chellaney,
Security Analyst : The issue is whether the Pak government
controls the jihadis, or the jihadis control the government. Either way, the use
of Pak against the Taliban will trigger bloodletting in the Islamist camp. That
is to our good. Three scenarios are possible in relation to Pakistan:1.
Islamists out the Musharraf govt.2. Musharraf conducts a severe crackdown on
Islamists and is able to bring them under control.3. Pakistan turns into a
Lebanon.My guess is that Scenario 3 is the most likely.
Amitava : Mr. Chellaney, do you think India will benefit
in any way if US-Pakistan combine attacks Afghanistan? India seems to sidelined
by US in it's fight against terrorism. Brahma Chellaney, Security
Analyst : The strikes in Afghanistan will involve more actors than
just the U.S. and Pakistan. I suspect India too will be involved, directly or
indirectly. Since some of the terrorism in India flows from the terror bases of
the Taliban, it will help in the reduction of that terrorism to smash terrorist
cells in Afghanistan.
Maria : Do you forsee a war? or this all will be a big
fizzle out affair? Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : Make
no mistake, the United States is not India. The United States does not turn its
other cheek. It will wreak havoc on all suspected networks and state sponsors of
terrorism. We are into this for the long haul.
manik : 2 aggressive, militaristic dictatorships, viz
Pakistan and China, hem in India. Do you think the India’s pusillanimous
response to Pakistan sponsored terror and Chinese provocation is a result of our
democratic setup or is this “timidity” an ingrained flaw in the Indian psyche?
Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : Manik, I think it is
latter. Timidity is inbuilt in the Indian character.
amitsethi : Should India also attack at Terrorist hideout
in Pakistan? Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : I think if
the United States decides on a multinational force, Indian elite units should
participate in military strikes on Taliban command-and-control centers. Pakistan
will come under heat in the second phase of the international counterterrorist
warfare. In the first phase, Pakistan will be used to demolish its own creature,
the Taliban. What better than to get the terrorists start killing each
other!
sachin : This question is rather hypothetical - if
Pakistan is bogged down in a war on the Afghan front must India take advantage
of this situation by striking at training camps in Pakistani Kashmir?
Presumably, this would cause great consternation in the U.S Brahma
Chellaney, Security Analyst : Ultimately, India can employ the
same logic and reasons as America to go after the Pakistani terrorist
infrastructure. That is why, at this stage, India should play a lead role in the
international coalition against terrorism and extend all help -- political and
military -- to the United States.
ChellaneyFan : Mr Chellaney , a question of a personal
nature – I enjoy reading your incisive articles on issues relevant to the
S.Asian region. Any news-sites or journals (preferably, foreign as I do not have
access to specifically Indian journals) other than rediff.com and Kyoto Times of
Japan that publish your analyses? Brahma Chellaney, Security
Analyst : I am afraid there are no other sites. You can look the
hindustantimes.com site though.
Goofy : Why do you think timidity is built in us. After
all, we managed to show the door to Pakistan the last time around when they
attacked us in 1971 and 1965. Brahma Chellaney, Security
Analyst : The only man India produced in the last 54 years was
Indira Gandhi. After that, we have produced only wimps as leaders.
Hemant : Do you think India is playing its cards right?
And secondly will the US ever achieve their objective? Brahma Chellaney,
Security Analyst : For a change, India has acted swiftly and
corrected in responding to the fast-paced developments. By offering its naval
bases, airfields and intelligence to the Americans, India has achieved three
things:A. It has provided US forces a degree pf strategic flexibility.B. It has
undercut Pakistan's bargaining capacity.C. It has ensured India will not be on
the margins of the new coalition.
jasjit : The US seems to be sending mixed messages on it’s
future response to terrorism. Do you feel they will adopt a comprehensive
approach to terrorists of all hues or only those that specifically threaten the
US. Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : Others have asked
the same question. Bush has pledged to attack all the roots of terrorism. He has
pledged that the war against terrorism will go on for years. The earlier
terrorist attacks in the US, such as the first World Trade Center bombing and
the shootings outside the CIA headquarters, were linked to Pakistani terrorists
who fled back to Pakistan. Washington has no choice but to tackle terrorism
comprehensively. It was for India to keep the spotlight and heat on Pakistan
terror bases. But Vajpayee has been too shy to name Pakistan since September
11!
venkatraman : 1.If Osama surrenders is the war over ?2. Is
Paks nuclear status gives more blackmailing power vis-a-vis the world
? Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : I think even if bin
Laden surrenders, the Americans are not going to forgo retaliation. The American
image has to be salvaged. If America cannot protect itself, its allies and other
nations under its security umbrella will ask how it can protect them. So it has
to repair the damage to its credibility. That means, in its eyes, striking hard
against terrorists wherever they exist.
Dileesh : What do you feel China's role will be in this
new cenario. And do you feel Musharaff's porposed vist to China
Symbolises? Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : China's
role has been one of duplicity. And like its client, Pakistan, China wants a
price for supporting any US-led retaliation. China officially reconizes the
Rabbani regime, as the United Nations does. But China has signed a
defence-cooperation pact and other economic and political agreements with the
Taliban.
raj : do you think arab countries support terrorism in
kashmir? Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : I don't think
they are aiding terrorism in Kashmir. But Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been
bankrolling Islamic fundamentalist activities in India. Those activities rear
the forces of extremism and terrorism. Such funding needs to be stopped.
sanket : Mr.Chellaney but Mr.Powell made it clear that
"the war against terrorism will stop after all theUS citizens are safe". USA is
not at all intrested in helping India fight the terrorism. it is just looking
after its own intrest. Brahma Chellaney, Security
Analyst : Sure. India too needs to look after its interests. It
should support the U.S. if it suits its present interests, and if things turn
out different later, it can halt its support. The cold logic of national
interest should guide India.
sourav : dont u think US is losing the initiative and
sympathy that it had by taking so long to react Brahma Chellaney,
Security Analyst : As time goes, the United States will face more
and more troubling questions. And the initial horror and cries for revenge in
the international community will begin to dissipate.
Jay : Isnt India and its PM too soft in speaking out
anything whether in clarifying its position or expressing its concerns, vajpayee
has not even been able to say anything abot 116 attacks to Sikhs in Uk and US,
isnt it a FACT that we dont VALUE lives of our people as US/West does for their
people ? Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : Human lives
come cheap in India. That is India's 'asset' against terrorism. The PM is too
old and sick to lead a nation of a billion people, in my view.
venkatesh : hi mr chellaney! Why aren't we taking a
dignified line wrt to whole affair? Why is the PM calling for a solidaity day
for WTc ? why not with terrorist victims of kashmir? Brahma Chellaney,
Security Analyst : Good question. We should express solidarity
with our own victims of terrorism. But observing a solidarity day with victims
of the terrorist strikes in the U.S. was also a nice gesture.
rmani : Hi, Mr Chellany, Now that the opposition is crying
against India getting involved in action against Afganistan. What do you think,
Sonia Gandhi would have done if she had been the Prime Minister of India. (A
possibility, come next elections) Brahma Chellaney, Security
Analyst : The Congress Party is speaking in two voices. Sonia said
on CNN that India should extend full support to the U.S. counterterrorist
offensive. But some of her juniors are criticizing the government's offer of
military help to Washington. Have you noticed how, in this hour of crisis, the
Republicans and Democrats in the U.S. are speaking in one voice?
viswa : when the war is likely to start Brahma
Chellaney, Security Analyst : Not before October, in my view, as
the Americans are still preparing a war plan, building a coalition and tieing up
operational details with regional partners like Pakistan, Russia, India,
etc.
Shiva : What about Chinese role. China has been fostering
cooperation with Muslim nations during the recent past. Pakistan is China's key
friend. China has been befriending Muslims as a low cost option to create
problems for her strategic competitors - India, Russia and USA. The idea is to
involve the energies of these nations in internal problems, while China herself
focusses on improving her infrastructure, maintains her burgeoning oil supply
requirements and modernises her Defense Systems to take on US at some point of
time. Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : Harish, too, has
a similar question. In the Huntingtonian theory of clash of civilisations, Islam
and China will be on one side in the fight against the Christian West. China,
through its actions, seems to be living up to that theory.
Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : I have to rush. Will
talk again. Thanks for chatting. And goodbye.
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