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'Pakistan is in a tight spot'
18 September, 2001, New Delhi: Security analyst and Afghan expert Sreedhar gave his candid opinions on the war against terrorism that the United States is preparing to wage, against Osama bin Laden and the Taleban-ruled Afghanistan, the likely use of chemical and/or biological arms, Pakistan's dilemma, and India's perspective.
Gautam : Pakistan despite being a loser eitherways is
still getting a better bargain from the US in terms of money, Kashmir and India
not being involved. India on the other hand is prostrating before the US and
letting them walk all over us, how much will we lose out once the war
starts? Sreedhar : Hello folks, I am here to take your
questions.I don't think Pakistan is going to gain and India is going to lose in
this peculiar situation. If the Taleban retaliates, the impact on Pakistan will
be extremely severe. On the other hand, the US cannot ignore a Franklestein
monster, the Taleban-Al Quaida combine created, nurtured and and made to prosper
by Pakistan. India in no way can be considered a party to this development. I
think the US has joined India's crusade against cross-border terrorism which is
more than ten years' old and the US has just joined in it.
Manav : Hi Sreedhar do you think that the US has the
stomach to send an immense amount of ground troops in Afghanistan? Do you think
these troops will face the same fate as
Russians? Sreedhar : Hi Manav, I don't think the US will
commit its ground troops in Afghanistan. It will be the troops of the Northern
Alliance who are fighting against Taleban for the last seven-eight years.
Uma : Hi Sreedhar what do you think Afghanistan will do
now? will they hand over Osama? Sreedhar : If you go by the
Taleban's behaviour in the past, it is highly unlikely that they will hand over
Osama bi Landen. If they do so, the credibility of the entire movement carefully
nurrtuerd during the past seven years will go astray. However, a formal
announcement is expected by this evening from Taleban. Now the Ulemas meeting is
on.
Bharti : How do you think the US plans to fight their war
against terrorism? Sreedhar : By physically liquidating the
command-control system of the network built by Osama bin Laden Al-Quaida
movement and afterwards picking up the network apparatus spread over 60
countries.So it is going to be a well-calculated strategy spread over a long
time.
Yarui : Do you fear that India and Pakistan both will face
a severe backlash from Islamic militants? Sreedhar : In the
event of a war, Pakistan will definitely face a backlash effect. In the case of
India one cannot be certain because the Muslim population is well scattererd all
over the c ountry and it does not seem to be accepting Taleban's interpretation
of Islam.
Mulana : Islamic terorists are spread acros the world, is
every country financially, morally strong enough to actually fight this
war? Sreedhar : The radical Ismamic groups are spread over
60 countries and four continents. They are sufficiently motivated groups and the
links with narcotic trade gives them certain amount of financial autonomy.
Therefore, they can retaliate. However, it would be an unconventional
retaliation with unorthodox technique.
Ila : India doesn't mind piggybacking with the US but
after the Hijjack of Flight 814 we have done NUTHING at all!!! why is our
givernment so weak? We already have the KAshmiri Jehadi's, ULFA'S, Naxalites,
LTTE hitting us and yet we do nuthing Sreedhar : It is not
factually correct. Indian republic is just 50 years old and in building a nation
state we will be going through this process of seccessionism, violence and
terrorism for some more time to come.
Tarun : Does the US even know what they are in for taking
on Afghanistan? Havent the Russians advised them of some other
strategy? Sreedhar : The US strategy does not seem to be
clear except for for considerable aerial bombardment to begin with. I think the
US is prepared for a long drawn-out war for quite some time to come. Therefore,
the mistakes committed by the Soviets are not likely to be repeated by the
US.
Tarun : Dont you forsee the US creating another monster by
funding the Northern Alliance just like they created Osama to fight the
Russians? Sreedhar : I don't think so. The Northern Alliance
is not as fanatic as the Taleban is. Second, I don't think the US will commit
the same mistake as they did with Taleban by allowing a free hand to whichever
government that comes to power after the war.
AshokReddyK : Hi Sreedhar, latest reports says Talibans
put some conditions to extradition of Laden? If USA agree to those condtions
what will be the effect on India,Pak,Afghan Sreedhar : Hi
Ashok, the reports which you are mentioning seem to be speculative. The actual
Taleban position will be known by today evening. I don't think Taleban will
extradite Osama bin Laden.
Malli : Will the terror attacks which are a sure thing for
Pakistan to happen, make them come closer to India? And will the terroris in
J&K get any less because of the Afghanistan
war? Sreedhar : The way Pakistan is responding to the
developments of September 11 is clear that it is in the process of disowning
terrorism as an intrument of foreign policy. If they stick to this new stand, I
see no reason why it should not come closer to India. But it will automatically
weaken the jehadi outfits operating in Jammu and Kashmir.
Veena : In todays day and age do u ever forsee a nuclear
bomb or chemical warfare happening? Sreedhar : While
everybody rules out the possibility of a nuclear weapon being used, a similar
thing is not being ruled out for chemical and biological weapons.Which of the
two warring sides will use it first is not clear as yet.
Zafar : hi, sreedhar it is learned that the taliban has
set the terms to hand up osama. what do u think abt
this? Sreedhar : Zafar, the reports that are coming in the
media about Taleban's conditions regarding handing over Osama and striking a
deal with the US are are speculative. I think the actual position will be known
later today.
sansana : hi..don't u think its high time indian
politicians stop acting like our cricketers who always lose ou on finals.This
oppurtunity was the best time to fight back pakistan and india lost this
oppurtunity. Sreedhar : What you say in the other context
might be true. India's response to the September 11 events is quite
well-calculated. It has placed Pakistan, the state that sponsors terrorism in
the Indian sub-continent, in a tight spot.
Anurag : With Visibly no infrastructure left in
Afganistan,What do they stand to lose if a war is imposed on
them? Sreedhar : Hi Anurag, the command and control system
of the outfits of Taleban and Osama are located in places like Kandahar, Kabul
and Jallalabad inside Afghanistan. They will be prime targets of any US
attack.
sanjay : what r the places in india from where we can hit
afgan. Sreedhar : Mostly from J & K.
subhash : Due to think an attack of this scale is possible
without the involvement of some secret agency of some
country? Sreedhar : The inlvovement of intelligence agencies
in operations of this type which started on September 11 by the US should be
accepted. I am sure various intelligence agencies across the world must be
extending all types of help to the US.
Ashu : Hi Shreedhar, I am Ashu a concerned citizen of
India, my question is "has India anything to lose in what ever be the outcome of
the so much chaos" Sreedhar : Hi Ashu, thanks for the
question. I entorely agree with you that India cannot lose anything by the chaos
that started on September 11. I think India's position on cross-border terrorism
has been vindicated and whatever happens in Afghanistan and Pakistan in the next
few weeks will be a major setback to terrorism and violence in the Indian
sub-continent.
evsubbarao : with the given ground conditions, is it not
possible for battle hardened Bin Laden to escape from Afgan in the event of
war? Sreedhar : It is highly unlikely that Osama would
escape. That is unbecoming of a leader.
suma : What specific diplomatic initiatives should India
undertake in the light of full pakistan support to
US? Sreedhar : Right at the moment India need not take any
new initiative except extending the support to the US and its allies' fight
against terrorism. This would automatically force Pakistan to abandon the path
of violence to resolve bilateral disputes. It can no longer support any jehadi
movements in the name of liberation.
viv : Sir, what are the chances of the attack on
Afganistan? Whien is it likely to come?? Sreedhar : The
chances are quite high. The war may start anytime.
Gagan : Hi Sridhar,well i think that if the countries like
india would have cared much about their citizens, the unemployed youth would not
have got any reason to join terrorism and moreover fundamentalists could not
have encouraged them if they were happy in their own
country Sreedhar : I understand the emotions behind your
question but a nation-buildinglike that of India is not going to be an easy
process. Many have to make sacrifices. The unemployed youth should not get
disillusioned by the state of affairs. Joining in radical movements by them is
not going to be a solution.
rajesh : wht do u think that india's role will be in the
coming days Sreedhar : Right at the moment, India is
committed to fight terrorism in any form anywhere in the world. Since the events
of the past few days clearly indicate that the whole thing is happening in iuts
immediate neighbouirhood. Therefore, India cannot remain a silent spectator. It
may have to actively support this war against terrorism.
neeraj : what are your predictions as to when the war is
going to start Sreedhar : Hi Neeraj, I have not studied
astrology or crystal-gazing. But as an analyst I feel that the war is not very
far off. It can start in the next few days.
mdhanerva : what will be the fate of attack on Afganistan
from Indian point of view? Sreedhar : Any attack on
Afghanisatn by the US and its allies would mean dismantling of terrorist command
and control network of Taleban and Osama. Since the terrorists in India get
their inspiration and motivation from this outfit, its destruction would have a
demoralising effect on terrorists operating in India.
Vijay : Do you think Pakistan will get OBL extradited to a
muslim country and come out winner? Sreedhar : It is highly
unlikely. The question of putting of OBL on trial in a third country like Saudi
Arabia is an old story. The Taleban made this type of offer at least twice in
the past.
CC : What r the chances Taliban will attack
Pakistan? Sreedhar : In the event of a war against the
Taleban from the Pakistani soil, it is almost certain that the Taleban's first
target would be Pakistan.
s : Pak & Taliban, is there any difference in the
military setup ? I think they are the same Sreedhar :
Pakistan has a professional army of more than half a million men and are used
for regular warfare. Whereas the Taleban is a loosely-knit force of 30,000-35000
who can fight only a guerilla war. Whenever the Taleban was to fight a pitched
battle like in Kabul at the time of September 1996, the Pakistani armed forces
went and fought the war. Therefore, you cannot compare the both of them as being
the same.
rav : Do u think Laden will ever be caught
? Sreedhar : I don't think so.
teyu_duyen : hi Why has the Indian government taken a
pre-determined stance even before any formal request from the US?Dont you think
India should have been more sober and sane in making this offer
beforehand? Sreedhar : India's fight against terrorism is
well known. The unqualified support it extended to the US even before a formal
request came is a sort of invitation to the US to come and join India's fight
against terrorism.So long folks, time has run out. Hoqwever, those of you wqho
wish to contact me, here is my email address : sreedhar_30@hotmail.com.Bye, it
was fun talking to you
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