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'Market will rally till Budget'Mumbai, December 9, 2003: 'We seem to be on a strong wicket. We should have a good Dec, Jan and Feb,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.Smallinvestor : Hello Ramesh Ji, Thanks for ur earlier advices... can u plz tell me some good low cap shares for short term Ramesh S Damani : hello everyone thanks for joining. Lets start. Take a look at Gati and Goldiam in small caps. they both look good and I own them sanujkr1 : sir finally some fire works in UB holding..any trigger . I cannot add more. I think you got my e-mail. I have sent a copy of that by courier to you.. Ramesh S Damani : i got the copy. thanks. as i have said the value is apparent but the process of unlocking is slow PRASHANTH : Sir, why are your favourite stocks Macmillan and Opto Circuits not moving up with the midcap rally? is this related to the bonus issue of Opto circuits in any way. Ramesh S Damani : Mcmillan has not got fancy, however my sense is they will be okay. Opto may be having overhang of bonus shares. I own both ChilledBeer : Hi Ramesh, thanks for asking me to hold Leela, I bought it back now for more gains. Do you like Asian Hotels? Ramesh S Damani : the hotel industry is booming rams : Hello Damaniji, Thanks for your wonderful picks. Shall i enter into BANK OF PUNJAB now @ this price? Ramesh S Damani : bank of Punjab looks well priced to me baracuda : has mahindra ugine restarted talks with the Spanish steel co which were called off in2000when things went bad for the co and is musco still a hold, if ancillary is doing well then musco should do well Ramesh S Damani : this is a tough stock to analyse.they own rought 150-200 crores of M&M so you have a base price, however, in terms of operating earnings the co has still not get its act together. i would be careful at current rates sudipto : Sir what is your view on monsanto ( india). Can it be a multi bagger Ramesh S Damani : bullish. it is a steady compounder rather than a multi-bagger. i own it baracuda : do yu feel that mcdowell is being now discovered by the market and that it should now climb higher but are yu sure that the management can support the share price by delivering better than expected results Ramesh S Damani : i am not hopeful of mgmt delivering better results. that has always been a problem. it is a restructuring story. only then will value be unlocked IndianBull : Would you buy/hold Tata Coffee at current prices? Are they doing well? Are fundamentals looking OKAY? Ramesh S Damani : they are doing well and the stock is cheap. i own it dsasddd : sir, can u please tell me how to find the first wave of five wave theory of Elliot wave theory Ramesh S Damani : sorry, don't use it rams : Dear Sir, Any good picks for the current week?? Thanks. Ramesh S Damani : balaji looks like it is ready to break out. i own it Newbieatstock : Hi sir, Trends in hte western countries have been to raise taxes and prices in alcohol and cigrattes, yet you say alcohol will be deregulated in India. Beer prices were 26 a few years back then 50 and now again 40 or so. how come India will be any different than other countries Ramesh S Damani : it is an imp revenue earner for state govts. when they have reduced taxes(excise, sales)revenue to coffers has shot up.G.g UP in beer. uday : Sir, there is grapevine in the market that Marico Industries is going to announce a bonus very soon. The recent delivery volume status indicates that. Are there any sites which can give information on the delivery status of any particular shares? Are you aware of any bonus news in this company? Ramesh S Damani : try NSE India and BSE India sight they give daily delivery statistics. Smallinvestor : Ramesh Bhai.. Plz shed some light on goldstone teleservices and goldstone technologies. Ramesh S Damani : sorry don't follow them. dsasddd : sir, even after getting so many news for Godrej Industries but still the stock is not flaring up like others . will it be because of low float? Ramesh S Damani : the stock has moved form mid 30'sto 70's. that is a good move. maha : Sir, NEPC INDIA - a (renewable) wind energy player, with market capitalisation under Rs 70 crore is expected to make a turn over of Rs 300 crore. This year with break-even at Rs 277 crore. Next year i.e., FY 2005 the turn over will shoot up to Rs 600 crore. The opportunity in the sector is enormous if govt makes it mandatory that 10% of power generation should be from renewable sources (pollution free). Don't you think this scrip stand a chance of substantial appreciation in future? In 1991-92 it had a great run in the bourses. What are your views ? Pl. advise. Ramesh S Damani : do you trust the mgmt?? RV : whats ur views on asian paints & karur vyasya bank ? is it time to hold or accumulate ? Ramesh S Damani : i would hold, and add smaller quantities rsdadmirer : Mr.Damani, textile counters are active again. What is your call on Himatsingka Seide? They are a slow but steady low profile debt-free company silently yet steadily increasing their marketshare-is this analysis right? Ramesh S Damani : they are, i have been recommending the stock since low 100's great mgmt, problem with growth though. i own it IndianBull : Ramesh, is Zodiac good on fundamentals? Board has eminent people. Do you believe there will be good growth in future? Ramesh S Damani : yes rams : Hello Mr. Big D, We want to give big party to you (We mean this sir), could you please come to Chennai? Ramesh S Damani : thanks, lets see in the future BASANTMAHESHWARI : HTMt will hold 6% in Hutch as per the Hindustan times. GS has valued Hutch at 1.2 US$ billion to 1.3 US$ billion. That makes it about Rs 80 per share. Do you still hold that stock or at these levels you are not comfortable.CAS accordinmg to Et will happen on Dec 15th but we will have to wait for that day before taking a call. You must be aware that Delhi high court has ordered denotification redundant for delhi. Does it not appear an excellent growth cum value play even at these levels? Ramesh S Damani : it is good value in this market.i have a trading position in itthey will be able to unlock valuewith Hutch IPO newkid : Thanks for your Answer about the media SectorAfter your remark about the media sector last all the media companies rosed. What were remark about mukta arts, after the zee- Rajshri deals. what comapnies are the targets of Merger & Acquisitions. Ramesh S Damani : it seems a big positive forzee. they are getting a greatbrand and library kcs : Sir, today there was some report on Orchid Chem in Business Standard. According to them they are good in Bulk drugs. what's your view on this stock? Can we enter at this level? Ramesh S Damani : i am sorry, i don't follow it dsasddd : sir, do u feel the equity of videocon international is too large to make huge moves or something else . daily we hear lots of news on consumer durables . i know you don't track this but please answer to this Ramesh S Damani : i hear they are doing well currently, however i prefer other industries baracuda : how did yu know that gail was about to break out. could yu please teach me the art of identifying these breakouts Ramesh S Damani : you need to do a course in technical analysis or read some books. take a look at Balaji chart. over 90 if it stays it is a break out uday : Sir, are you studying a company called GHCL? They are into chemicals, textiles and some extent into ITES also? I think this company can become an multibagger in the future with good dividend track record. The share price has moved to 30 odd levels with good volumes? What do you think so sir? Ramesh S Damani : i don't track the co, sorry baracuda : will yu sell bank of punjab after it has had a good run ,and do yu believe that ultimately a foreign bank will pick up stake in it Ramesh S Damani : it looks well priced to mefor the short term BASANTMAHESHWARI : I annalysed Vijaya Bank Co. seems the next OBC in the making it has aggressively reduced NPA from over 6% to 2.5 % and this will go down further to 1% .the best part is at an EPS of 9 and a div of Rs 2 Co. has 34% coming from retail loans and that portfolio is to go up to 50% by march 2005. I plan to have a somewhat heavy exposure although I have just bought a moderate quantity. Your take. Also This bank is to acquire a north Indian bank and its home loans at 7% is the cheapest in the industry? Ramesh S Damani : analysing a banks portfolio is a very difficult proposition; the bad debts show up 5 years after the loans. i have many times suggested what banks i like. however in fairness, a lot of good fund managers are bullish on Vijaya vikas6 : Shall we hold onto Tata Infotech and Honeywell Ramesh S Damani : they both look good at the current time. i own them both IndianBull : above what level would mcdowell need to stay, before we can anticipate a breakout? Ramesh S Damani : around 70-71 levels dsasddd : sir, can u suggest one good book for technical analysis Ramesh S Damani : try a basic book and learn the easy stuff. cant recall names but you should get them in the book shop skd : Damani ji is bhushan steel is worth buying at current rates of Rs 95, market is expecting that company will post Rs.180 crore cash profit in FY04, and Rs.250 Crs in FY 2005, equity capital is Rs 40 crores. Ramesh S Damani : thanks for the info.,will look into it BASANTMAHESHWARI : This wil stump you also.Reliance mutual and FRanklin prime have returned about 40 odd percent in the last 5 years and well over 24% in the last 8 years 24% compounded means that you double your money in 3 years and grow it by 8 times in 10 years. Frankly I have not been able to get that kind of returns in the last 8 although I have fared better in the last year.Take a look at this finally it might not be worth all of us spending hours before the TV screen. Please comment. I genuinely want to transfer all my funds to 3 or 4 mutual funds any time in the future.. Ramesh S Damani : 40% over 5 years does not sound correct to me. that is an excellent return to get. However, they may have got 100% over one year and that compunds to 30% on average; basically compounders are better off investing in their own convictions. no mutual fund can do 25% compounded over 20 years. almost impossible ak : sir, Is this ripe time for an investor to invest in scrips or wait until Jan. to see the developments. As majority seems to be overpriced or Optimist and expected to come down after end of year. Is this right. Many Thanks Ramesh S Damani : i think market will rally into the budget. we should have a good dec, jan feb sanujkr1 : sirany new sectors you are watching closely now? you got my e-mail or courier? expecting your replay (about sending it to fund managers and fiis) Ramesh S Damani : i did. i will read it andget back to you., generally looking at entertainment Learner : Why do the answers that you give not come in sequence, they fall anywhere in the list, is there some fault with the software. it becomes difficult to track your answwrs ? please look into this Ramesh S Damani : i answer questions that i knowor find interesting,not in order. tigershark : do yu feel that morgan stanley will give a dividend before financial year closes, and dont yu feel that any investor who wants to have an india exposure should invest in msgf Ramesh S Damani : it makes a lot of sense, you get protection and a good portfolio. i own it Anika : How do you view the US market? Faber had predicted a lot of gloom before year end. Do you see any signs of that event occurring? Or is the economy in much better shape now? Ramesh S Damani : i have beeb bearish in us, however every time dollar falls it gets cheaper for Japanese eurpoens to invest and the tech sector does well because it is export-oriented Smallinvestor : Ramesh Bhai, whats ur opinion about pentamedia gra Ramesh S Damani : avoid it skd : damani ji pls guide,which sector can give good money in coming two years Ramesh S Damani : media and liquor look okay to me kcs : Sir, you are recommending a lot of stocks. You know we cannot buy every thing! What's your advice for small investors like us? Ramesh S Damani : everyone must make up their own mind. i only make suggestions tigershark : in your office do yu have a team of analysts who cover various sectors and then get back to yu Ramesh S Damani : no. i am the analyst, i read a lot and have good friends KR : good afternnon sir... if i remember correctly, you were not much optimistic about rise of markets in such a big way when the sensex was around 4300.... i mean to say you were not expecting to rise it rapidly the way it has now.... but now, having such a great run by sensex, whats your outlook? :-) Ramesh S Damani : i think if you read the transcripts i have been bullish. i think market will rally till the budget. we seem to be in a strong wicket uday : Sir, any view on Praj Ind, Shaw Wallace, Khoday India, and Radico Khaitan? Ramesh S Damani : shaw wallace is a good restructuring story BASANTMAHESHWARI : I have seen it on valueresearchonline.com. Please check it I could hardly believe my eyes and have asked my agents for the prospectus. It is true and there for you to see and believe. Please check on this one... Ramesh S Damani : i will, but my sense is no fund can do it. Not even the great peter lynch at Fidelity, Berkshires compunding at 23% is the gold Standard. Also what if manger changes. Bet on your own convictions Learner : Thanks! I am a great fan of your. Right from the day I heard you in Pune (Holiday Inn). Your have a great vision. Ramesh S Damani : thanks for your kind words karthik : Damanji please tell exit price for Mcdowell Ramesh S Damani : i wish i knew! BASANTMAHESHWARI : Media stocks will get a further boost when Reliance comes out with its media fund and TV 18 would be in demand at that time as this fund has a liking for tv 18 Ramesh S Damani : buy them because they are good stocks, not due to fund buying. some one else may sell Smallinvestor : Thanks Ramesh Bhai.. I am a very small investor i keep investing 5000 on an average per month can u suggest me some quick money making stocks so that i can make some money quickly now and invest them for long term for my future...Plz name some low price good stocks which a very small investor can buy and make some for his earnings. plz name some i will work out the information about the stock on internet and invest.. thanks and regards. Ramesh S Damani : unfortunately, as i have said before i dont know any shortcut way to riches, we buy co's. market values the mat a time convenient to the market, no quick tips rams123 : sir ur call on glenmark hold or sell Ramesh S Damani : Hold KR : you are right sir.... markets are bullish... and so are all of us with almost day to day increase in value of our holdings.... but it is scary... sometimes i feel sanity must prevail and these markets need to cool off a bit... (against the wish of myself and most of the retail investors as well as wealth creators like you) your comment sir...:-) Ramesh S Damani : the trick is to invest with conviction, not on gossip or "aaj kya bhadega." With conviction you can hold stocks through a bad market, learn to develop a conviction in what you buy and it will set you free skd : mr. damani , what is ye views on jupiter bioscience at rs.137 eps rs.17, the company has same business model as divis lab running around rs.1300can it be next divis lab or matrix lab Ramesh S Damani : that is hard to tell.clearly the op in pharma was huge. however i dont follow this co closely jmural : Dear Sir, Kale consult. seems to be on a uptrend recently and has risen 14% today also. It has stayed around rs50 for sometime now. Do you follow the stock?. Ramesh S Damani : yes, it looks interesting though i have not bought any. May buy soon uday : Sir, any opinion on housing finance stocks? GIC hous, sbi home finan, can fin and dewan housing? Ramesh S Damani : go for the bigger players. or take a look at Sundaram Finance Anika : does neyveli have a sustainable business over next 5-10 years ? is it likely to do well and possibly get privatised? Ramesh S Damani : power is not likely to go out of fashion, is it? chris : sir is it the rt time to buy madras cement and gillete Ramesh S Damani : gillette looks good to me priyaa : sir, can we buy gati at this price also or wait for a correction Ramesh S Damani : generally you would want to buy at market in a bull market susmita0803 : sir once again I'm asking I'm holding 2000shares of varun shipping purchased @18 ,should i hold them or book profit ? Ramesh S Damani : that is for you to decide, no views at the current time Anika : please suggest a company you may like that would do well with the boom in the road construction sector/related sector. Ramesh S Damani : ingersoll, beml, Hindustan construction skd : mr.damani what are yr picks to take on trade opening from jan 2005 under WTO Ramesh S Damani : textiles have shot up alreadyno new ideas KR : sir, did you have chance to look at cheviot (reference: last wednesdays chat)... it has appriciated to 180 from 148 in a week.... allmost 5% circuits everyday.... i am convinced about it but daily circuits scares me... :-) Ramesh S Damani : no, unfortunately, market has been too hectic tolook at new ideas. amitsureshbhatia : market ruling at around 5200 levels which stock would recommend at current levels and yours views on Engineers India & Alka India (15% dividend ) price Rs. 10 there fore dividend yield 15% ?? Ramesh S Damani : entertainment and fmcg offer goodvalue. Balaji, mukta, htmt are goodbets. Monsanto also looks good for investment. i own them all sudipto : sir today shree rajasthan syn is having a volume or over 50,000..what the take Ramesh S Damani : no news sahir : Ramesh like Classical song you are from which gharana of investment philosophy? Ramesh S Damani : I like growth stocks with good mgmt in a sunrise sectoror deep value (like psu, liquor) jiny : , many clients have started calling after gap of 2 to 3 years now..do you see this sign as short term end of current bull run?damaniji , market has moved up very much & I am scared of being in the market as B group sahres have started moving up, what is your suggestion? where should u put your money now? Ramesh S Damani : as long as we are scared the bull market will be fine. it is when we become complacent that we should worry amitsureshbhatia : sir give me your views on Alka India in textile sector good dividend yield? Ramesh S Damani : sorry, have not followed it. see you all next week. thanks skd : dont u feel mnc pharma may give good performance after jan 2005 when patent rule wil become affective to some extent Ramesh S Damani : you may be right |