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'I would avoid the PSU basket'Mumbai, November 8, 2002: 'PSU shares will underperform for the next two years. Government seems intent on destroying their value,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.BASANTMAHESHWARI : Have you read Shiv Khera’s YOU CAN WIN? He writes that the safest place for a ship is to be anchored in the harbor but the problem is that ships are meant to take up the ocean and not lie near the harbor extending that logic further I feel that if ever it made sense to invest it is now. All this talk about 2916/2835 etc is nonsense and irrational. We are standing to loose the major part of the upside by protecting 100 odd points on the downside Ramesh S Damani : Happy Diwali. Thanks for joining. Let's start. I broadly agree with you. You invest in equity to make money, not to protect capital. We should enter the market again. Usha : I will like to invest in one/two bank stocks. Among SBI, ICICI, Union Bank, which one is better at current price? Ramesh S Damani : I own and prefer SBI. Usha : Will there be more downside In Beml, Nalco, Concor, HPCL if there is no disinvestment? Which one has maximum downslide? Ramesh S Damani : Yes, there will be. If BEML results are bad, it could be the worst hit. However, I would avoid the PSU basket. Maya : Any positive impact on the economy by the new foreign exchange policy by the govt.?..or is it a whitewash Ramesh S Damani : I am very encouraged by it. Kelkar plan should be implemented in total to work. Agriculture sector should be taxed. Forex account is a very good move. We should make our currency convertible. rajesh : Sir, happy diwali to you. What will be the ideal portfolio for 6 months period for aggressive investor?in sectors like IT enabled,Tech,psus, old economy and in cash? Sir please answer Ramesh S Damani : In tech, it would have to be like Infy and Geometric. I own both with a longer time view though. jesselivermore : MY TIPS FOR BUYING -ITC, TISCO, CORPORATION BANK, BASF, HINDALCO, MASTEK Ramesh S Damani : Love your name. Have you read his book? I am a big fan. ManojGarg : Damanji,IT&T has again posted very poor results with just Rs. 5 million in revenues ? What do you think of ot?I have lost heavily in it . Ramesh S Damani : It is coming out with a rights issue. Still not ready for the big time. BASANTMAHESHWARI : Kingfisher it seems that somebody has ruthlessly murdered the stock. All the idea of B.V about Rs 125 odd is fine but then Companies are bought to create value and not stand on them How can a shareholder (bruised and battered ) assume to receive pay-offs from the company except when the Co. sells off its properties most of which(McDowell etc) it never would. Is it a quasi long term bond instrument or is there anything else which I am unable to fathom Please comment. Ramesh S Damani : Markets are irrational and that is the opportunity for us. It is not for the faint hearted though. Remeber PSU stocks kept underperforming before exploding. It is the style that you prefer. Buy value, growth or excitement. guptaone : good evening rameshji! how do u find the results of mcdowell, united breweries & kingfisher properties? Ramesh S Damani : These companies should not be measured on results, but potential. These stocks remain cheap. Hold these stocks if you believe in the great middle class of India. baracuda : now that macmillan has printed its results what have yu to say topline has grown but bottomline for the first time a loss.people who bought infy are laughing their way to the bank while people stuck with mcmillan will have to wait for time immemorial Ramesh S Damani : That happens in the stock market. It has been a poor call. However the quarterly results were due to a right off. Full year estimates have been scaled down from Rs 15 to around Rs 12.50. I still own it. However, it it has not been a good call. BASANTMAHESHWARI : Yes Bad news for Macmillan CO. reported a loss of about 10.15 crore on rising sales of 30% was it because of an extraordinary item or is it because of the seasonal nature of the business but then there was a substantial profit in Sept 2001 ? Today’s ET(Cal edition) carries out a report that the Govt. is planning to tap US publishers for e-publishing in a big way. It has appointed US consultant Mitchel June Inc for this job. The major players there were Prentice Hall Pearesona ndTata Mc Graw. Macmillan was conspicuously absent ??? It also says that e-publishing is a capital intensive industry with an initial outlay about 10 times the normal publishing ones. But boy the figures were HUGE the New-York market alone only was worth US$ 8 Billion Ramesh S Damani : The loss was Rs 1 crore. I am not familiar with the rest of the story. However it remains a high quality company. I wish management would grow faster. In my heart, I believe they will. Business logic suggests that. However, let's wait and see. SWAMY : HELLO DAMANI SIR, HAPPY DIWALI. HPE YOU WILL GUIDE IN MUCH IMPROVED SUGGESTIONS. SIR I YOU SAW MACMILLIAN RESULTS. I THINK IT IS AT 140 LEVELS. WHAT YOUR ADVICE. Ramesh S Damani : See earlier answers. guptaone : with a holding of about 43% in mcdowell, kingisher properties must be a good bet at 26/- levels! what is ur opinion rameshji? Ramesh S Damani : I agree. I own it. baracuda : why has radico khaitan come with good results where as mcdowell results are as always poor it appears that the two managements are pole apart mallya is siphoning money from mcdow for his extra curricular activity Ramesh S Damani : That is in the price. I believe that ultimatley Mcdowell will be sold just like United Breweries was. That will create value. This is a value stock, so we have to be patient. jesselivermore : THANKS FOR MY NAME SIR. BUT WHATS UR OPINION OF MY BUY LIST - ITC, TISCO, CORP. BANK, BASF, HINDALCO, MASTEK Ramesh S Damani : I am not too fond of Mastek. baracuda : how should one athe infy stock i mean at what level should buying be started and what %of portfolio should be infy and geometricand what is the holding period for these two companies. Ramesh S Damani : Infy, think hard about it. It is better for trading. Geometric I would hold for another year. vinay : Hi ramesh ji. How did you tthink this career of yours would be for future aspirants? Ramesh S Damani : You mean stock analyst. BASANTMAHESHWARI : If I am not mistaken Jesselivermore is prominently an early 20th century trader who made and lost millions. He writes Markets are never wrong only opinions are!!!!GREAT THOUGHTS Ramesh S Damani : Absolutely. His book reminises of a stock market operator. Must read AparnaBajaj : I am a NRI from CANADA, i was watching the progress of the makets in india to invest them but was not able to decide which ones to zero in. Is the pharma sect a good bet Ramesh S Damani : As an NRI, you would appreciate the bullishness in tech, business process outsourcing and pharma. Look at those sectors to begin with. vinay : yeah ramesh ji stok analyst career. Ramesh S Damani : Sure, why not? If you can help people make money, you are going to do well. gags : does MBA degree from an third rung B-School will help. Ramesh S Damani : More than a degree what is required is an honest mind and some conviction. rajesh : Sir, what is your opinion on psus like nalco, which is likely to be delayed. at Rs. 80 what will you advice hold/sell? Ramesh S Damani : Government seems intent on destroying value. LAKHANI : HELLO, I HAVE UNITED PHOSPOROUS LTD, SHOULD I HOLD OR SELL Ramesh S Damani : I don't own it. However, I hear they are doing well. Roshan : i heard lot of about u and i laso respect u much becoze u r very old in mkt + very much ealiear predicted this PSU rally, so plz guide me what to do about PSU stoks like Hpcl, Bpcl and Nalco, COncor? Ramesh S Damani : Thanks for the kind words. Unfortunately, most PSU shares will underperform for the next two years because of lack of movement on divestment. Nayeem : what is bonus share sir Ramesh S Damani : When a company splits a share to reward shareholders, it shows confidence in the future but makes no financial difference. SWAMY : DO YOU HAVE ANY FRESH CALL? Ramesh S Damani : I bought some SBI for trading. tigershark : so dont yu feel that the time is right to invest in tech funds they contain infy wipro satam geomtric ect please advice Ramesh S Damani : I prefer buying stocks directly. However, for most people, an index fund may be good. Bull : what do u think about the next budget??? Ramesh S Damani : The early reports suggest it will be sweeping. That is exciting. Prince : I just returned from gulf countries after 10 years of service. I invested around 15 lak in indian market. I want to pickup a carrier in investment field as reaserach assistant. Please advise about my plan. If your agree with me please suggest a firm in Chennai. Ramesh S Damani : I think Sundaram Finance is the most respected name in Chennai. Try there. gags : after a indian education in Finanace can i look forward to securing a job in USA if got a chance Ramesh S Damani : Think global. You are on the right track. It is hard to immigrate to USA. But try Singapore and Hong Kong. boheii : Could u please explain what are futures and derivatives? Ramesh S Damani : Derivatives derive from some underlying asset class. Index derivatives rely on 30 stocks in the Sensex. Their value is derived. Futures is a bet on future prices. It is spot cost plus interest. That determines fair value. People use this market to hedge positions. venkataramana : when will stock market touch again 6000 points in your opinion Ramesh S Damani : I am absolutely sure it will. However, not of the time frame. It could take 1-5 years or more. moin : Dear Damani sir, I am a student at IIT Kanpur and am very keen to make a lot of money on stocks...have just opened up a DeMAT account. Pls tell me what will be the absolute key for making money !! Ramesh S Damani : I'll give you some zen advice. Don't chase money. Buy good stocks, have some conviction and money will follow. camrit : What do u think of Investing in German Stock Exchange.. I am an NRI there.. Ramesh S Damani : I don't know much other than the Dax has fallen. Good value must be emerging. cuteguy : Are the Investment made and Dealings through internet SAFE??? Ramesh S Damani : Go only with the big names like HDFC and ICICI. nammi : for better yield wish to purchase low value psu stocks whwt do u say!pl guide; also wish to buy max art this price pl respond;thks Ramesh S Damani : You could however remember they get hit everytime a minister speaks. navin : Will the big boom, the one that took place during harshad's time will ever get repeated Ramesh S Damani : It happence once every 20-30 years. ROHIT_DELHI : nice to see you here Ramesh S Damani : Do I know you? diwala106 : what do u have to say abot the e-serve results and the current status of polaris Ramesh S Damani : Next quarter if e-serve does not show sequential growth, it will be in trouble. Preethi : Is it true that Microsoft is eyeing a few big names in the software market (Bill Gates is here next week) and if yes, who do you think are the probable take over targets (Satyam and Talisma are already being rumoured) Ramesh S Damani : Satyam is wishful thinking. Jainroshan : Respected Damaniji ! Plz tell on on ur guttfeel that which stock will outperform from here ? If u don't mind Ramesh S Damani : SBI is safe and have a good upside. rajesh : Sir, what is your opinion on stocks like Goldium Internation, Lakmi Auto,Nalco Ramesh S Damani : Goldian and Laxmi Auto are cheap. I would buy them here. anshu : r u ready to stick out ur nect by predicting the market 1 year down the line ? Ramesh S Damani : I could but it has no value. I am generally optimistic and hope we will have a year on year gain. HarshadMehtaFromHell : sir tell me a few mutual funds who have good fund manager and bright prospects Ramesh S Damani : Zurich and Templeton are doing a good job. yurigagarin : Dear Dhamani, Will reliance recent news is a trigger? Ramesh S Damani : It is. I am excited by it. Siva : Happy Diwali Rameshji, Somehow I missed your program on CNBC yesterday night. What's your take for the coming one year? One more thing, many people usually hold a view that stock markets are quite vulnerable to manipulation and advice to stay from them. Is that true or can one survive despite manipulative traders. Your take on this please Ramesh S Damani : I am optimsitic after a long time. Worst news is in the market. In the short run, markets can and do get manipulated. However, in the long run value prevails. Buy your stocks with conviction. You will be wrong, but one or two good picks will go a long way. cuteguy : Whats the reason for Indian Rupee being so week...Is it because of improper Indian Banks Policies..like not much Cash Flows..? Or something else..? What could be done to improve that..?? Ramesh S Damani : It is not weak. It is climbing. Forex reserves are bulging. crus : How do you think the retired should handle the present scenario of dwindling interest rates? Can they venture into equities at this late stage of their life? If yes, how should they do it? Ramesh S Damani : It is a hard question. If you can't afford to lose, don't be in equity. If you can afford to lose some money, put a little. cuteguy : Mr. Damani, I have noticed that ur answers seems to have a particular kind of Bias towards some companies..Is it so easy to predict the future about those..??? Ramesh S Damani : That is my vision thing. No, it is never easy. But we try. rajesh : Sir, yr take on the results of mcmillan, it is touching new lows every day. pl comment? Ramesh S Damani : See me earlier answers. tigershark : please tell me about esrves second qrt results are they good or bad Ramesh S Damani : Results were fine. However, non sequential growth. A growth company must grow. yurigagarin : Dear Dhamani I am an AA of of a coimbatore stock exchange. Can reliance discovery be an another trigger? Ramesh S Damani : It is a good trigger. BASANTMAHESHWARI : I am holding IT and T at Rs 32 would you ask me to get out or stay put. Please answer?? I do not mind booking losses on wrong calls Ramesh S Damani : It might be better to book losses. stocklover : Mr Damani, According to your opinion, can you tell me which company do you forsee taking the role of Infosys in the IT-enabled sector, which one would be Wipro's, and the Satyam's ? Ramesh S Damani : e-serve would be a good choice for Infy's mantle. Geometric, Tata Honeywell could be followers and Infotech Enterprises, Mphasis BFL are the others. krcraju : Damaniji, what do you think about the actual performance of the comapnaies and their scrip value, any relevance? Ramesh S Damani : It catches up like age. sam : What is your take on PSU scripts like HPCL and BPCL per say value of the company if divestment happens and if divestment does not happen Ramesh S Damani : At some point, they are buys on yields. karthik : Mr Damanji By the recent surveys from various mckenzie reports how would you project indian rupee value and recent cut short by RBI in CRR what will be the impact? Ramesh S Damani : The rupee is going to strengthen thanks to tech. Cash Reserve Ratio cut is good, but no investment is coming in. Vikas : Sir I m Vikas I bought 100 @Rs130/- IDBI shares from public issue long back and now the share price is not even 20Rs What do u suggest me to do Thanks Vikas Ramesh S Damani : Not bullish on IDBI. SAMKOOOL55 : PLZ EXPRESS YOUR OPINOIN ON D-LINK AND I-FLEX SHARES IN NEAR FUTURE Ramesh S Damani : i-flex is good till early next year when overhang starts. I am not sure on d-link. crus : Where is it better to invest - US or India - for the next 5 to 10 years? Ramesh S Damani : I think India because US is a mature market, whereas India in theory is a growing market. And market always pays for growth. AnandKumar : Mr.Daman,Can you suggest me just one way as to how I can take out a decent return of 2-3% on my investments. Ramesh S Damani : A lot of shares yield that kind of returns. vas : sir last three times i tried to get advice from your side, but i hope this time you will give advice.Tell me about tvsm,tata tele,amscot sys,federal bank century tex can i hold for next six months Ramesh S Damani : TVS Motors is doing well. Fed Bank and Century Textiles are good bets. BASANTMAHESHWARI : They say that when there is a Gold mining rush one should buy companies that sell pick axes If the It enabled sector does well Should one also buy TATA TELECOM?? Ramesh S Damani : Not when the gold stocks are cheap to begin with. Siva : Sir, I want to know about the general prediction of scrips. For instance, Telco has come out with good numbers and seen a decent up move. From here, what are the constituents to be considered and how to predict about its future quarters? Ramesh S Damani : If the company can grow into the future and expand margins, that would be the best. stocklover : What do you think of MTNL trading below Rs 100/- ? I am willing to wait for 5 years if it can reach Rs 300 during that time. Your opinion please. Ramesh S Damani : I don't have a clue on that one. narayanan : will the petro disinvestment take place Ramesh S Damani : Postponed by two years. crus : Is the Indian equity market still vulnerable to foul play by individuals or mature enough to enable individuals to commit their life savings to it? Ramesh S Damani : Buy good companies and not the "exciting stocks." Thanks for joining. See you next week. Bye |