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'Tata Honeywell, McMillan are good stocks'Mumbai, April 22, 2003: '2004 will be the year for McMillan. I bought McMillan because the fundamentals are improving,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.shenoy : damanifan- is it moneycontrol.com? Ramesh S Damani : Hello everyone thanks for joining. Let's start. baracuda : yu should be happy with eserves results ,can they maintain qrt on qrt growth for the next year also and did yu read the interview of rahul singh he is optimistic about the cos future growth plans and about ites as whole inindia your much awaited comments on esrve please Ramesh S Damani : I was and I did read the interview. The company has delivered. If such a growth rate continues I think it will become a premier stock. Hope that it becomes the benchmark stock in ITES. I own it. baracuda : please comment on mcdowells results and the news that mallya and chabrias trying to patch upalso scottishand newcastle selling all tis pubs only toconcentrateon brewing all this is good news your comments please. Ramesh S Damani : Business Line had a story to the effect today. It is very encouraging. They will have extremely high pricing ability if this deal is through. This is a great bet. I own it. jimrogers : eserve is over hyped acc to me Ramesh S Damani : In the last 3 years EPS has gone for Rs 1, Rs 10, Rs 25. They have delivered on the hype. vikas 1 : Since u did not turn up last week , let us first discuss the companies which has declared results one by one . How were the result and your expection for the future from these companies : E-SERVE, MCDOWELL, INFOTECH ENTERPRISES,GEOMETRIC Ramesh S Damani : I did the show on Wednesday not Tuesday. e-serve comments are given earlier. Mcdowell is a great value. As far as Infotech is concerned, I would still only watch and Geometric guidance was poor, but give it some time. I own all 4 shares. Rajiv : Good afternoon Ramesh, were you pleased with McDowells results? Is the company doing OK? Ramesh S Damani : Bacardi is the 4th largest in spirits case sale (by volume). They are being valued at $7 billion. Mcdowell has a market cap of $40 million. Think about those numbers. Smriti : How much should one rely on Technical Analysis Mr. Damani Ramesh S Damani : It depends on your outlook. If you trade heavily you do technical analysis. I mostly do fundamental. SUNDEEP : MANY ANALYSTS ARE TELLING THAT WE ENTERING IN NEW BULL PHASE YOUR COMMENT PLEASE Ramesh S Damani : It is too early to say that. However internals of the market have improved. sisyphean : Dear Mr Damani, Vajpayee recently said that it was important to get the small investors to invest in share market for the industry to grow.How does investing in secondary market goes as investment to the company?(Only in the IPO, the company gets the investments-later people just trade the stock & not as an investment) Ramesh S Damani : It doesnt. But the liquidity that it offers enables people to buy in the primary market. DamanisFan : sir..how a small investor like me can do extensive fundamnetals research ? Ramesh S Damani : Trick is too read a lot. That helps in building a view on the world. After that you can research a specific idea. BASANTMAHESHWARI : When did macmillan come out with results if so what is their eps for the cy.They have given a 20 to 25% growth though.I bought at 151 yesterday.please comment Ramesh S Damani : It looks very attractive at current rates. They are earning 45% margins in ITES with a 70% plus return on interest. I think in about 9 months they will be ready to take off in ITES. I own the share. Kannan : Do't you think the fall in the price of Mastek is a good opportunity to accumulate at lower levels Ramesh S Damani : The management has never really consistently delivered. That is why I have avoided it. sharath : any dark horses in the mid cap pharma- What do you think about Ind Swift, Suven Pharma, Vimta Labs, Shasun Chemicals, and J.B. Chemicals. Which one has the potential to become the next Matrix laboratories? Ramesh S Damani : I can't guess that but Suven and Shasun are stocks to watch. darius : i think u should look at Opto Circuits. 8% dividend yield, 100% growth ahead. Ramesh S Damani : I will thanks. sharath : Sir, what about Gujarat Heavy Chemicals? It is quoting at around Rs. 21 and a dividend of Rs. 2.50 per share. Why is the stock not catching the eyes of value investors? Ramesh S Damani : Because these stocks lack growth, stable but not sexy. Kannan : The stocks you recommended always are low floats Like Mcdowell Macmillan Why? Ramesh S Damani : BEL and CMC, e-serve were low floats. But today they are traded actively. If the fundamentals are right volume usually follows. amey : hello mr. damani, I am an Hp employee and talking from Barcelona HP, how do u think of the Hp stocks? Ramesh S Damani : HP? You mean Hewlett Packard? HP trades in India via Digital. It is not listed here. Ahmedabadguy : Mr. Damani as most of the results are out now...have you added anything recently in your core and trading portfolio? Ramesh S Damani : I bought Mcmillan because the fundamentals are improving. ARAHAMAN : dEAR rAMESH, WHAT IS HAPPENING IN TATA hONEYWELL? IS THE RESULT OUT? TODAY IT FALL HEAVILY. Ramesh S Damani : Results are due in June. The company is on track. I own it. md : Sir,will mr.mallya unlock the value (mcdowell)after patch up????????? Ramesh S Damani : Let's hope so. Ahmedabadguy : SIr what kind of price target you hope your wrong call(may be not now)Macmilan has steam to go as it has already risen from 125 levels to currently 155 rs.?? Ramesh S Damani : I think 2004 will be the year for McMillan. That is still 9 months away. I am optimistic of strong growth in ITES from there. Price targets are difficult. Rajiv : if we are indeed in early stages of a bull market, can the market be driven by mid caps and not top rungs like HLL, Infy, Reliance?? Ramesh S Damani : In a bull market the large caps must move. However, the index seems capped for now. BASANTMAHESHWARY : Igot ur answer on macmillan at a mcap of 240 crores can we look at 1000 crores in 4 to 5 years as a couple of large orders can do the trick also what is the CY Eps target?P;ease answer Ramesh S Damani : I hope so in 4-5 years. This year (FY03) they should do about 18-20 EPS. srikanth : Dear Ramesh, why Teledata info is moving ahead ? Any news ?. Ramesh S Damani : Don't follow it sorry. Rajiv : That would be one hell of a rally, if it really happenned!! PSU plus mid cap select stocks rally!! What do you feel Ramesh? Ramesh S Damani : Some stocks like BEL, Container, RCF should do well. sachin : What exactly you are watching in INFOTECH ENTERPRISES because i feel its profit margins have increased and loss is because of its subsidiries which they expect it to turnaround Ramesh S Damani : Lack of faith in management. They never seem to deliver. Ahmedabadguy : Mr. damani good call on adding macmilan at lower levels..like wise your call on macdowell also gone awry as prises dropped by 40-50% in last six months...Isn't the stock ripe now to average out..(Normally averaging out doesn't pay accept for fundamental improvement like macmilan) Ramesh S Damani : McDowell is not a growth stock. At 50 or 40 it still represents value. It is hard to say when selling will be exhausted. baracuda : does hpcl merit investment at298 govt appears to be putting arough estimate of collecting 7000-7500crs from the sale that translates into a price of around700for the 24% stake Ramesh S Damani : They need to fix a time line for divestment. Before that do not get excited. anaam : Sir,We have invested in BEL from Rs 60 to145. Is it not the time to book partial profit in it & invest it in E-Serve? Ramesh S Damani : These are different stocks. BEL is good value and e-serve is growth. Everything depends on your outlook. Kannan : Apart from Mcdowell and E-serve which stock could be added now? Ramesh S Damani : Tata Honeywell and McMillan are good. mittal : ramesh bhai asthe eligibilty criteria for long term capital tax exemption has bee fixed to BSE500 doyou think new company can be added to this list Ramesh S Damani : BSE has just changed the index. Check it out on the bseindia.com. md : Thank you sir, market in bear phase (more than 3 years) teji kab ayegi? please reply Ramesh S Damani : We know the answer to that question…. well after the bottom. The rest is just conjecture. Tokyo is in a bear market for 20 years now. vikas2 : TVS E AND AFTEK again came out with good results. your views Ramesh S Damani : I am not bullish on Aftek. One could invest in TVSE but be patient. chakradhar : Mr.Damani ..what will be your six best buys for a 6 month horizon..an average return of abt 15% Ramesh S Damani : My horizons are 1-3 years to be truthful. naam : Sir, Have you gone thru' recent results of Orchid Chemicals & their projections for 03-04. If yes, your views? Ramesh S Damani : I have not followed it sorry. chakradhar : In that case what will be 6 best picks ... Ramesh S Damani : I have recommended these stocks many times. Anyway once more 1) E-serve, 2) Tata Honeywell, 3) McMillan, 4) Mcdowell are good place to start. anaam : Sir,Some time back you had suggested Shasun Chemicals What's your view now. Eliy Lilly & Knoll is out sourcing from them. Ramesh S Damani : Stock's been on a run. sharath : Sir, Can you tell me one thing regarding the valuation of stocks? Why is Karur Vysya bank being given a PE multiple of less than one. when all the other private sector banks are above 5 PE. How do people value stocks? Can we buy karur vysya, federal bank, GTB, or south indian bank for mergers and acquisition gains? Ramesh S Damani : I think the PE is higher than1. The stock is ex-bonus. Market has its own logic. It requires time to warm up to these unknown companies. Ahmedabadguy : Sir any news on Gati stock front? Seems like quaterly results are improving for last two ones after bad last year???Isn't astock to be added in small quantities...as such volume is not there Ramesh S Damani : It is cheap. I own it. SRIRAM : SIR PLEASE DO GIVE US ANY IDEA OF PSU BANKS CAN ONE INVEST ON THAT NOW Ramesh S Damani : I have only invested in State Bank of India, which has been a laggard. mittal : ET investor guide published list of BSE500 YESTERDAY is index changed after that Ramesh S Damani : No. Some new stocks were added last month. They will become effective in 2 weeks or so. rahul : Still looking to hear on TATA INFOTECH Aand HTMT Ramesh S Damani : Let's wait for Q4 results to come out. mpk : I got the name, the name of the person who was praising you is Mr. Biju Samuel, he has all praise for your discipline in investing in stocks with cool mind Ramesh S Damani : Thanks. chakradhar : Thanks ...a lot Mr.Damani .. apersonal question ..what is ur investment portfolio in long term Ramesh S Damani : I buy the shares I recommend, other stocks I own are BEL, CMC, and India Hotel. anaam : Sir, How mich topline & bottom line growth you are forcasting in E-Serve in 03-04? Ramesh S Damani : I am still working on it. LADOO : You answer for e-serve, tata honeywell, mc dowell , mc millan and other selective scrips only and does not respond to other queries are there any specific reason for it. Ramesh S Damani : That is not true. But I know only so many stocks. Better not to give wrong advice. SHENOYV : jmurali-- SILVERLINE is temporarily delisted from NSE-- it is traded actively on BSE Ramesh S Damani : Yes. sharath : sir what about CESC and gujarat industries power? Can we buy at the current rates? Ramesh S Damani : I am studying CESC. It is cheap but the balance sheet has not been too well. manutd : did yu read the merrill lynch report on indian ites is indian ites finally being recognized by the large investing community Ramesh S Damani : No. I did not. I'll ask a friend for a copy. Tabu : Sir, your expert opinion on E-Serve results. Ramesh S Damani : Wonderful. sudhirtj : Damaniji, give some idea about investing in steel stocks??? Ramesh S Damani : Results are good for Q4. However, remember that steel prices are coming down. ShilpiKapoor : Ramesh,Any idea regarding Wockhardt Life, Apollo Hospitals ? Thanks Ramesh S Damani : I like Apollo. rahul : areu not worried that e-serve is serving only citigroup .what impact will it make if they start scouting for other business Ramesh S Damani : It is a worry. It will change in 2 years time. However, growth is now coming from Citi hence the company has very little sales exposure. manutd : is indian hotel still agood buy at 185i missed it at 175.i cant own the property they own but ican stll own a few 100shares so that i becom asurrogate owner of their property Ramesh S Damani : That is a correct way to look at it. At these prices it is a good bet for patient investors. sridhar : Mr Ramesh, some of the share like surodaya plastic, chromatic dyestuff are not listing at all. How could i deal with those kind of share?? Ramesh S Damani : Sell them in spot. anaam : Sir, Many a time I envy your coviction--say SBI. We had no conviction for SBI but invested in small PSU banks & even made money on it Yet there is no satisfaction because it was like jumping on a "runnig train" & getting down on next stop...Thanks Ramesh S Damani : Thanks for a very thoughtful question. In my experience the big money that I have made in my life is when I invested with conviction. Sometimes it takes time. However it is worth the wait. SRIRAM : SIR PLEASE A LAST REQUESTION ABOUT DO U THINK RELIANCE IS A GOOD BUY AT THE PRESENT LEVEL AND WHAT ABOUT INFOSYS WILL IT GO AGAIN BACK TO 4000 MARK Ramesh S Damani : Still uncertainty rules about Relliance Infocomm. Infosys will take time to go back to 4000. Its management has forgotten the growth mantra. I own Infy. Ahmedabadguy : Sir though with uncertainity about volumes of reliance phones and targets achievements..By no means 10 lacs customers to start with is no mean job.that too secured one for three years.Don't you think REL. cap. is best siuted to buy as financing is through this entity..... Ramesh S Damani : They are moving from pre-paid (financing) to monthly payment only like cell companies. I think growth will come harder now. mahesh : eserve has a 31 % tax rate which is very high what do u think Ramesh S Damani : It will come down to 20 over time. mittal : which stocks were added in BSE500 last month can you please give name Ramesh S Damani : Stocks like I-flex. Check bseindia.com. I don't remember. Kannan : E-serve is serving for Citi group The same thing is done by Polaris... Do you think Polaris offers Value for Money at this price? Ramesh S Damani : I would prefer e-serve. mover : How do u expect Container Corporation to behave? I own it in very large quantities. Ramesh S Damani : I am bullish on it, I own it. manish : the outsourcing story has it shifted to th textile sector with the like of wal-mart and co outsourcing their requirements which companies are best suited for this Ramesh S Damani : That is the argument for auto ancillary. Thank you all for joining. See you next week. Bye. |