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'Hold on through the corrections'Mumbai, January 6, 2004: 'We are in a bull market. The trading strategy in case the market signals an intermediate top should be to hold on through the corrections,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.deepak : Ramesh bhai, the market dropped by almost a 100 points today. Is this the beginning of a correction? And will the market keep slipping till 5, 500 points as some fundmen say? Ramesh S Damani : It certainly looks like the beginning of a correction to me. Market may have made a bar reversal today, which signals an intermediate top dayal : hello sir, watched cnbc ideas 2004 and outcome. for the same scrip found undervalued by one and undervalued by the other. typical case of beauty lies in the eye of beholder. but what about less informed like me . u seem to be the light at the end of the tunnel. show us the path which one to buy Ramesh S Damani : picking stocks is an art form as i have said repeatedly. Picking stocks is a matter of conviction, patience and vision. baracuda : 8 months back yu had recommended GAIL at around 90 now what should one do considering the fact that 16000 crore of paper will be entering the market on march 10 2004. also kotak who is a bookrunner for gail has put a price of 208 on gail. should i sell now and buy again after the issue? please answer Ramesh S Damani : it is a big fear. that is a huge issue coming to the market and will suck money away from the secondary market. , baracuda : so do yu continue to hold gail as an investment or have yu sold off that was the answer i was looking for Ramesh S Damani : still holding but realising it seems well valued Newbieatstock : Sir, UB Holdings and Zodiac both appreciated over 100%, have you changed your portfolio position in those two stocks lately. Ramesh S Damani : no i still hold them rajeshdhawan : why are u recommending penny stocks like UB Holdings as top picks. how it will become a top pick. no operating business also no triggers in short term Ramesh S Damani : i said it was a dark horse for people who wanted something else. the will get op receipts in a couple of years time HiDamani : Damani, tell me whether u suggest United Breweries@ 140 odd or KINGFISHER HOLDIN on 60 odd beacuse I wanted to purchase United Breweries on ur suggestion but it seems I ended up purchasing Kingfisher because they have almost similar codes on ICICI direct site--- United Breweries(UNIBR) and Kingfisher Holdin(UNIBRE) Ramesh S Damani : i like and own both of them sharad : Sir, Your views about Thomas Cook, it is an investor friendly company and the valuations are quite attractive. can I switch over from some risky segment to T. Cook and EIH? Ramesh S Damani : i own some small amount and am bullish on its prospects Newbieatstock : Sir if a company has assets worth say 1000 odd crore does that mean the market cap of the company should also be 1000 crore. Ramesh S Damani : no. market cap is outstanding shares * current price vikas 7 : What is your strategy in case market signals intermediate top. Are u going to hold on or sell and then buy at low levels Ramesh S Damani : it looks like we are in a bull market. i would hold on through the corrections. that is what i wish to do Farooqwala : Good Evening Sir, could you pls tell yr view on GAIL and Balaji, both I have bought today 500 each at 300 and 109 level?pls advice Ramesh S Damani : Balaji makes a lot of sense to me Gail is well valued though i still own it balchan : what is your outlook for macmillan for 2004? do you see a 20% bottom line growth? Should not the scrip merit at least a PE of 15 in this market? Ramesh S Damani : i am optimistic. i expect to see 20% growth, i own it. market is not treating the stock fairly rajesh : Sir, your view on IT enabled stocks has changed? especially on stocks like Tata Honeywell and Tata Infotek, have you sold any shares in ITES. Ramesh S Damani : i generally am holding on, i have trimmed some of my holdingsthough raj : sir, do u have any idea on adani exports and aztec software . please answer to this one no? Ramesh S Damani : aztec is reasonably valuedgrowth has been a problem. About adani, i have no opinion rsdadmirer : Dear Mr. Damani, first wishing you and my fellow investors at this site a very happy new year. P/E of American Oil exploring majors around 18/20 with an end-to-end presence in the entire value chain, or at least most of it, in a market unlikely to be affected deeply by marginal oil price movements makes sense. In India, does ONGC deserve that kind of P/E rating? The price is soaring and the ebb does not seem to abate. Some of us were actually looking for a considerable weakening in the prices. Where have we gone wrong? Do you see a correction, if at all? Ramesh S Damani : i have been bearish on ONGC. It does not deserve to be the highest m-cap co in the country, Also the paper coming in IPO ensures that the gains in the future will be limited Newbieatstock : and sir amongst the construction stocks simplex constrution is still undervalued compared to its counterparts. u think it still have significant upside. Ramesh S Damani : construction co's look like goodvalue. I own Nagurjana and Simplex devvishree : hello sir sund. finance now 50% more after you recommanded at 200 now What? Ramesh S Damani : i would hold on dayal : ur thoughts on moneycontrol is not for one and all. be kind enough to share ur recomms. and ur views of mkt, tops and bottom etc. on this forum . many of us will be obliged Ramesh S Damani : i have a column on moneycontrol which you can read rajesh : Sir, I have invested 30% in liquor stocks. But I have no exposure in stocks like Radico kaitan and shaw wallace. of the two which stock is more attractive. How much you have allocated to liquor stocks? Ramesh S Damani : i think it is too high, try to keep it around 10-15% anaam : Sir, I wish to invest in infrastructure stock. Out of the following two: Nagarjuna Const & IVRCL Cons. Both looks good to me . I can't decide. Which is better out of these two? Ramesh S Damani : they both seem cheap. i recently bought Nagurjuna. it has had a run up so wait a while raj : sir, I don't have any idea on the business of Adani exports . Can u please tell me if u know the business . it would be a great help to me Ramesh S Damani : i dont either i am sorry balchan : sundaram finance went up to 293 thsi week! has there been a new trigger? or is the market expecting a banking licence possibility? what are your thoughts sir on these? does this scrip merit a 1. 5 times book value price ? at around Rs 300 Ramesh S Damani : i think it is an undervalued stockthat got rerated, Newbieatstock : sir when you say media will do well this year whats the rationale, the investment logic you have for that, do you not like zee ? Ramesh S Damani : i am bullish on content business, i think balaji is the best bethowever take a look at Mukta etc mona : sir ur call on obc uti bank hdfc bank and sbi hold or sell Ramesh S Damani : sbi still looks the best amonglarge cap stocks. vinaydamani : ramesh uncle vinay damani here i want to know bout the descision of supreme court and its impact on hpcl should i hold or sellout Ramesh S Damani : decision is still maybe one month away. i think it will favour disinvestment, (my opinion) however given the election cycle underway the time table is unclear malik : sir, give your view on Godrej Industrie shares. whether i should buy this stock at current price Ramesh S Damani : i tlooks okay at these levelsi own it Bhupat : Sir, will you not answer my question? Is there any ohter penny stock that you my want to look at? Ramesh S Damani : nothing new rajeshdhawan : ramesh bhai ub holding has a debt of over 300 crores. how can they repay without any operating business. also they need money for ub city. so how it will be dark horse. and what u mean by op receipts in ur early transscript? Ramesh S Damani : debt is goint to be repaid byscottish newcastle money comes intoub. UB city is being developed by another co on a sharing basis. they will securitise the receipt to get a cash flow. also they could sell stake in Aventis pharma etc admirer : Sir, do you think Infosys is worth buying at current levels? Ramesh S Damani : i would wait till after the results vikas 7 : Sundaram Fin : Does rerating is completed or still it has value left over long term Ramesh S Damani : i think it has value leftif you can hold for 2-3 years. vinaydamani : so what should be done with hpcl i sold of the entire holding tomorrow at 479. 5 in morning but bought it in the afternoon at bout 548. 50 should i continue to hold or book profit and come out of the counter and is engineers india is a good buy at current level for long term if not what should be the entery price Ramesh S Damani : i dont advise on individual trades investor : What are the short term prospects of GATI, Mysore Cements? Pl reply Ramesh S Damani : gati seems a stock waiting to grow bigger, i think they will do well Farooqwala : Damaniji, will GAIL fall further down, if so, upto what level? pls advise Ramesh S Damani : i wish i could predict that FiscalFitness : If you want to choose based which co. has stronger financials and brand value would you go for UB or Mcdowell? Does UB have any significant real estate hidden assets too? Ramesh S Damani : ub beer is the cleaner co that hasbeen restructured. ub holdings hasthe hidden real estate sunil : sir I have been asking this question all through the last seven chat session pl pl reply this time your view on nrc/Amara raja co are from tomorrows sunrise secotr textile and auto ancillary Ramesh S Damani : unfortunately these co's are notfollowed by me, hence no opinionon them. sorry malik : Sir earlier u have recommended Logix Micro at Rs 25 . Is it still worth to buy the stock at Rs 40 . Please advice Ramesh S Damani : i think they will do well over one year. They recently tied up with DCI marketing which is a huge positive. Next year should be good anaam : Sir, I find State Bank of Bikaner cheaper tna SBI. And once it comes in demat format it will shoot up atleast 20 %. If it is merged with SBI the ratio will be in favour of SBBikaner. Only worry is that how it will treat its non perfoming debts? Please throw some light on 'worrying' part? Ramesh S Damani : the stocks seem cheap and your logic is right. I have no idea about the NPA part. , thanks all for joining in. see you next week. bye |