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'Jaya's election is a pity'
Bombay, 13 May 2001: Prem Panicker and Amberish K Diwanji took questions on The Rediff Chat, where clearly there was strong dismay at the fact that Jayalalitha had romped home the winner.
A K Diwanji : Sure, I am here! And so is Prem!
assam : Who is leading A K
Diwanji : In Assam, the Congress; in Bengal, the Left Front; in
Kerala, the UDF has secured a majority; in Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK; in
Pondicherry, the Congress-Tamil Maanila Congress (allied with AIADMK).
kary : I don't Know What is Happening in TN A K
Diwanji : Jayalalitha's AIADMK is set to win the elections in
Tamil Nadu, securing a stable majority.
Kumar : Give me the Detailed leading List of each State
with each party ? A K Diwanji : That would be difficult; May
I suggest that you visit rediff.com and take a look at the statewise lists. The
lists are being updated constantly to reflect the latest results. Anyway the
trends are as mentioned earlier.
vasu : Is there a chance of shashikala taking the mantle
of CM (alias rabri devi) A K Diwanji : That is a good
question and something on which there is much speculation. That Jaya might
nominate Sasikala, or T T V Dinakaran. There is even the possibility that she
might take up the mantle, at least for the 6 months that she is allowed to.
fasa : give me the detailed leading list of kerala A
K Diwanji : UDF: Won-101, Leading-76; LDF: Won-38, Leading-24;
Others: Won-1, Leading-1
Prem Panicker : observer asks, are these results a
referendum on the NDA govt. at the centre?Be rather hard to make such an
argument, given that in none of the states was the central government and its
performance made an issue
Mahesh : Do you all really think Sasikala could be
projected by Jaya Prem Panicker : I very much doubt that
Jayalalitha would be stupid enough to do that -- it is the surest way to
alienate both her allies, and her cadres. She knows there is still trouble ahead
-- a case in which she is awaiting sentencing for starters. The last thing she
wants to do now is alienate support
Keyur : What do U think ...are the people of Tamil Nadu
mad to bring in power a female who since has been under the shadow of
corruption Prem Panicker : Look at it this way -- last time,
DMK fought on the issue of corruption. This time, once Jaya's nominations were
rejected,the DMK goofed, decided not to go hammer and tongs at her, and
concentrated on talking about their own government instead. So all the mileage
on corruption went to Jaya -- and the DMK was left with the weak speeches of
Chidambaram, who was the only person who was deputed to take her on.
bala : will the PSU disinvestment be delayed at center due
to this results? Prem Panicker : But why, Bala? What has
that got to do with this? As far as I can see, no one ever made disinvestment a
major election issue -- and these results dont alter the party position at the
Centre either, so hey
admkv : Prem, why do NRI's blindly support any party
aligned with BJP Prem Panicker : God knows, friend. It is
something I've always wondered.
Keyur : Dont U think the BJP shuld sit and have a close
look at the election results and shuld develop a impression they are not
required by the masses Prem Panicker : Should the BJP look
at these results? Most definitely. Is there disillusionment? Again, definitely.
Will it have any short term impact? That I very much doubt, in fact, just
minutes before, Jana Krishnamurthy said something on those lines when commenting
on the results.
pankaj : Anybody want to talk about politics in
Assam? A K Diwanji : I am no expert on Assam, but go ahead
and let me know if I can help?
Keyur : Do U think that BJP will again rake up the temple
issue to mislead the masses A K Diwanji : Good question. On
one hand, the BJP might now feel vulnerable to pressure from its allies and
would not like to rake up issues that don't go down too well with its allies; on
the other hand, hardliners will now push for their agenda, esp since in all this
Vajpayee will appear weak. The next few weeks will be interesting.
gvnathan : Prem ..any idea about Villivakkam constituency
chennai.. Prem Panicker : Not just yet, pal... I dont have
the individual breakdown yet
asumroy : To Prem Panicker: When have you started taking
interest in cricket? I thought this chat was on cricket. Prem
Panicker : *laughing* Hey, not my fault if you guys get the
impression I am Rediff's cricket correspondent, and dont do anything else
Keyur : But why are they doing this..aren't they taking
the illiterate Indians for a ride.... Prem Panicker : Sure.
But then, what is politics in india all about if not taking illiterates for a
ride? I remember seeing this exit poll, where 52 per cent of the illiterate
population supposedly backs Jaya. Which, considering the AIADMK vote share is
generally in the early 40s, means the bulk of her support is from there.
shrikant : Dear Prem: NRIs have a clearer vision from far
away. They generally do not have Indian newspapers to bias their opinions and
honestly, BJP comes out far ahead in NRIs' list. Prem
Panicker : I see. Well, I guess that explains it. Also, I guess
the NRIs as a whole are more tolerant of promises that sound good but are never
kept. I was thinking the other day, that we used to talk at one time of stuff
like "hot pursuit" as a response to militants. made me feel good, I thought,
okay, finally, we do something about it. Oh well... anyways
bala : Do you think the number of foriegn companies coming
to tamilnadu will dessipate due to corrupt jaya in place.Than go to Karnataka
& Andra. Prem Panicker : That I think would depend on
whether Jaya makes the same mistake, of keeping all decisions in her hands. Last
time, that was the problem -- no one wanting to invest could get anything done
till they met her, and she wouldn't meet anyone. if she goes for the same style
of governance again, then yes, I would think people would get fed up and head
for neighbouring states
asumroy : To Prem gain, do you find politics sufficiently
interesting? Prem Panicker : I am a journalist, have been
one for 12 years. Only for the last five, have I been writing about cricket. I
find life interesting, in all its aspects
Keyur : Prem : Do U believe in one way or the other ..the
Charm of Sonia is setting in...whether it be sooner or later and is giving the
BJP the run for money Prem Panicker : I don't think so, if
the Congress ever comes back, Sonia I suspect will have very little to do with
it, it will have to be an anti-incumbency vote that does it. Sonia's 'charm',
for whatever it was worth, was at its peak last time, and eventually, didnt
translate into results. But if the Cong is smart and brings Priyanka in, that
could be another story -- she, I notice, gets the crowds going.
xxx : To Prem Actually What Happened in TN ? Prem
Panicker : And to SRINI, ABOUT THE INCUMBENCY FACTOR: I dont think
incumbency had anything to do with it -- actually, the government was very good,
and I know first hand, been there often enough lately. Besides having spoken to
oodles of people. I think the DMK made two mistakes -- they went too soft on
Jayalalitha, which tothe illterate section of the audience meant they weren't
confident of their charges -- remember how tough they were last time. And two,
they projected STalin -- who can't hold a crowd like his father can, and who has
no support outside of Chennai proper
srinivas : It is a good lesson for mamta.BJP should not
take her into ministry again. A K Diwanji : It sure is a
lesson for Mamata. The BJP won't be in a hurry to take her back, unless their
stability at the Centre is under threat. In such a situation, the BJP might
prefer to let bygones be bygones.
srini : There is legal hurdle for JAYA to become CM In
Tamilnadu A K Diwanji : Jaya is going to pose a
constitutional question. There is no constitutional bar on her being elected
leader of the majority party in the TN assembly (who is then invited by the
state governor to become chief minister). Problem is, that the Election
Commission code now bars her from standing for election. So very technically,
she can become CM and by law, has to be elected within 6 months, but so far, she
can't contest elections!!!
vj : dont you guys have something better to do? get a
ucking life..whether its karunannidhi or jaya it doesnt matter..'cause they all
stink..indian politics is the filthiest..so get a life..dont waste ur time
chating with prem..he gets paid for chatting.. Prem
Panicker : VJ: Given that is how you feel about it, why not leave?
As to the other, I certainly hope you are writing the cheques -- no one here is,
at least, not for chatting. Geez, some folks act like little kids yelling and
screaming for attention
arjun : prem....where does the congress go form here...do
the people want them back or is this a local referendum Prem
Panicker : Where does it go, Arjun? On the plus side, it has
nowhere to go but up. And it can -- but there is a huge heap of IFs. IF they can
come up with a coordinated programme, that is aimed at creating a groundswell of
opinion. IF they can come up with a leader whose appeal transcends their
constituency and at best, their state. IF the Congress stopped reacting each
time they are baited, and lose the plot (vide Tehelka -- they had a chance
there, but ended up getting all defensive about Sonia and Bofors and let the BJP
off the hook). And so on, down a long line of IFs.
Administrator : vj, pls mind your language or we'll be
forced to throw you out.
hello : Prem, could something similar to the US elections
have happened? i.e. people thinking that they were voting for DMK but actually
voting for ADMK because of the electronic voting system? Prem
Panicker : Not in such large numbers, no way. let's face it, not
much of a difference. earlier you looked for a symbol and made yourr mark, now
you do the same, but press a button instead, you can't explain a complete
washout that way
Mike : Prem what is ur opinion on Cho's role in TN
election outcome? Prem Panicker : There was a time when he
was the voice of reason -- but that is when he was a non-aligned journalist. Now
he is a politician, and proving to be less principled than most. For Cho of all
people to have supported Jayalalitha was a shocker -- considering all he knows
about her.
roy : Will Mamata now seek refuge with the
NDA?? Prem Panicker : Jana Krishnamurthy, just half an hour
ago, was asked that question and he said, no way we will take her back
arjun : but prem....the country does need the congress.had
it been strong as in the past in tamil nadu...the dravidian parties would not
have been ble to ply the caste card freely and the electorate would have had a
decent choice... Prem Panicker : Granting that, Arjun, the
problem for the Congress has always been that they keep piggybacking on the
Dravida Kazhaghams, one or the other, and having done that over theyears, today
they have no individual identity, or cadre, in TN. And when that happens, a
party is finished.
srinivas : Now I think congress should behave maturely
unlike in tehelka case where all the initial advantage they have
lost. Prem Panicker : Exactly. And they lost it because
instead of keeping the spotlight on Tehelka, they got too busy defending their
leader against the BJP's retaliatory accusations. And before they knew what was
happening, the whole focus shifted from the BJP in the dock, to the Congress in
defensive mode. Stupid, really
rolly : Prem, who will be next chief minister of Tamil
Nadu Prem Panicker : I suspect that they will make
Jayalalitha the leader of the legislature party -- for one thing, she wont trust
anyone else with that power and for another, there is no other one leader
acceptable to all. which means she will be the next CM, barring a miracle
karthik : Hi Prem...now, with the return of Jayalalitha to
power in TamilNadu, do you foresee a major problem with the national political
scene...i wish India doesnt have to go through one more change in the
government Prem Panicker : Not in the near future, karthik.
if you think about it,t he BJP has no stakes in any of these states anyways. I
think from the central point of view, the real crux will come end ofthis year or
early next, when UP goes to the polls -- if the BJP fares badly there, then yes,
the Centre could get shaken,bad
arjun : ok prem...how do u think th ltte factor affected
the elections and how will the new govt deal with them Prem
Panicker : Actually, I think the LTTE didn't have the impact, as
an electoral factor, that everyone thought it would. The average TN voter
frankly is concerned with his and her immediate concerns. But yes, the LTTE is
going to be a major headache for the government... more so, because if Jaya's
second innings is like her first, then the government will be cumbersome and
slow moving, no quick decisions will be taken, everyything will be referred back
to Amma who for her part sees files if and when she has nothing better to do..
and that kind of thing can be lethal when dealing with things like this.
Mike : Someone by name Pankaj wanted to know about Assam,
can any of you say A K Diwanji : Parties Lead Won Congress:
Lead-40; Won-0;; AGP-BJP: Lead-32; Won-0;; Others: Lead-12; Won-0;;
joy : whats the situation in west bengalleft front seems
to be leading is it???whats the prediction ??/ Prem
Panicker : In WB just now, it is 186 to the left, 84 to the TC.
Pretty clear picture, you dont need to predict
ab : will moopanar become cm and will he join hands with
cong Prem Panicker : No way on earth -- Jaya won't trust
Moopanar, plus she never forgets an injury and Moopanar injured her badly last
time round, cobbling the TMC-DMK alliance and more importantly, along with Cho
getting Rajnikanth involved. No way she will put him in a position where he can
take decisions that could, among other things, affect her own future
mallu : hi Prem, are we going to see a repeat of Bihar in
Tamil nadu??? Prem Panicker : Why going to? We already are
seeing that situation -- caste-based parties calling the shots in their own
regions. Earlier, when the Congress was a force, they had the Dravidian plank to
fight from. Now, there are only two parties and both are Dravidian, so where is
the difference? Given that, caste had to come in, and it has
shanthiem : Given the scenario in Tamilnadu, is not a
mistake by the Literate people in avoiding voting - which brings back the
corrupt Jayalalitha back to seat?? Prem Panicker : Shanti,
it is always a mistake when literate people dont vote. a bigger problem is that
even if every single literate person in a state votes, he or she is still easily
outnumbered by the others -- the real problem is the enormous percentage of our
population that remains illiterate
gopal : MK must have accommodated MDMK (Vaiko) and he
should not announed Stalin as the next CM Prem Panicker : I
agree, entirely. Vaiko had pan-TN appeal. And STalin is the kiss of death,
anywhere outside of Chennai proper
naveenking : Of course Prem will lose an admirer,i have
been one of his greatest fans ,for his exceptional cricket writings,but such
experiences can put u off Prem Panicker : What on earth is
this all about?
naveenking : Even though the Vote percentage of the
parties has not marginal,the number of seats won have been huge.Do u see a
change for th better from this First -past-the-post scheme Prem
Panicker : Interesting question that, actually, I was waiting to
see the full results, tally and stuff in, and see just what has been happening,
why, and how. It definitely is grist for an analysis, there will be one on
Rediff once we get the entire details. No, I am not avoiding your question,
merely saying it aint the kind of one I want to answer off the top
joy : prem , considering the fact that indias political
situation is complex and intriguing, what do think has the leftist government in
west bengal has in special that holds them in power for such a long time when
similar parties fail to do so in other states ?????/ Prem
Panicker : Joy, if I had the ansewr to that one, I would have
founded a party myself and run it on the same principles. One thing, though --
communist parties are very disciplined, cadre based -- and down the years, no
other party has ever attempted to challenge them where it matters,w hich is the
grassroots. In Bengal, simply going over during election time and making
speeches wont work -- the real battle is every day, in the tea shops and bus
stands and such where the political debates rage. And no party has any kind of
presence at that level barring the Left. Which could be one reason.
naveenking : thanx a lot Diwanji for respondingbye all and
have a great time chatting,God save india A K
Diwanji : welcome
mallu : Prem, can u list out the major reasons why the
verdict was so much against DMK. I was in madras for 2 years of its rule and i
think it was not that bad..what do u think were the real issues. How can someone
bring back a lady who is so much into corruption?? Prem
Panicker : I did. One, the fact thta the DMK foolishly chose to
soft peddle on Jayalalitha. Was stupid to go to villages nad talk about
constitutional problems. They needed to go, on and on, on one line: See, we said
she is a thief and now the court says so too. Instead, they debated the
constitution, and left it to Chidambaram to talk of her corruption. Two, theyf
ailed to understand that caste politics was taking over. Three, they pushed
Stalin down the electorate's throat, thinking his popularity in Madras would
translate into popularity across the state.
alit : well, given the trend in kerala... where not party
was able to rule for 2 consecutive terms... congress HC could have avoided
nullyfying Karunakaran ? A K Diwanji : Good point. It is
really debatable how much of a difference Karunakaran's absence would have
made!!
karthik : so Prem..i have a question for you...u have
written a lot about Indian cricket and the indian politics...so what do u see in
common...is there sthg serious lacking in our system.. Prem
Panicker : Yes there is. Talent. Honesty. Integrity. A passion for
what you are doing. An ability to keep the country's best interests in mind and
work towards that, and only that.
naveenking : Can u correlate the similarities and
differences between the BCCI and Indian politicians Prem
Panicker : Both are the same, for the reasons I just gave
Karthik.
srinivas : If Jaya makes someone with clean record as the
CM the I think she will win the appreciation of the people. Prem
Panicker : Ah, but who is that someone? Goondas she has, by the
dozen. Clean records? Rather harder to find, would love to see who she comes up
with
vinayjaswal : prem,do you think jayalalitha will become cm
despite the orders from the court on the contrary. Prem
Panicker : There is no order from any court in the land which, at
this point in time, says she can't be CM.
anil : Premji, what about your coments regardings
jayalalitha's party victory in TN? Eventhough she was accused in somany court
cases. Prem Panicker : My comment? It is a huge pity, and
over the course of the next five years, the state will suffer. What else is
there to say? You can forgive everyything, even corruption given that I cant
think of a single non-corrupt party in India today. But not administrative
incompetence and apathy, which described her previous regime. It is like this
high up govenrment official once told me: "The difference is, if Karunanidhi
takes money,the work will get done; if Jaya takes money, your money is gone, the
work will remain undone, and if you ask her about it you get beaten up."
Administrator : bogie: While we can't accede to your
request right away, we'll work on it so that the next time it refreshes only on
your click.
Mike : Diwanji- Can you throw more light on the dichotomy
that exisits in High Lietreacy in TN & a person like Jaya voted back ??
A K Diwanji : Really don't have an answer. One reason could
be that for the poor people, corruption is not such a big issue as the middle
class make it out to be; this explains why so many corrupt people keep winning
time and again. A second reason, in the case of TN, is what Prem told me: that
Karunanidhi did not play up the issue of corruption in his campaigning to make
it "the issue" of the elections.
rahul : premji,do you think jayalalitha will become cm
despite Prem Panicker : I think Jaya will be CM, at least
initially, yes. Simply because her mentality is such that she will not entrust
that power to anyone else. Her first goal will be to wriggle off the legal hook
she is on, and to do that,the CM's seat helps. Why would she give it to someone
else who could, conceivably, make her position worse so he himself could take
over the party?
rsondur : Prem, Once again. Why were the opinion polls so
off the mark? Prem Panicker : rsondur: heck, opinion polls
are funny. Depends what question you ask. if you ask anyone in Madras if he is
happy with the government he will say yes. Actually, the answer to this is an
interesting thing I once heard, if you guys stop questions, I'll tell you the
story, next post.
gks : Hi Premji..People says JAYA has changed. what's your
opinion. Prem Panicker : She has changed how, friend? I
would really hope so. Jayalalitha Mark I was the outside of enough
thomseb : Prem, And there is no else one else in the party
to take over if necessary... Prem Panicker : Precisely. Both
Dravida parties, in fact, are struggling to find leadership. After Karunanidhi,
there really is no one else with pan-TN appeal for the DMK, and the same is true
for the AIADMK vide Jayalalitha. Vaiko is the only leader who had that appeal,
but the DMK by expelling him, lost that advantage
Prem Panicker : On Opinion polls: Let us assume that we
are discussing gun control. Here is one set of questions:
naveenking : The opinion Polls' results are only as good
as anybody's guess.They are more off the mark each time.When something goes
right,they say that the predictions have come true.No one can actually predict
the Indian voters' mind till election day A K
Diwanji : While any prediction is dicey (no one has seen the
future!!), this time round, most opinion polls predicted the results correctly.
However, one tragedy is that the Indian press tends to show its political
prejudices in its opinion polls. And that leads to wrong prognosis.
Prem Panicker : Do you think crime is on the rise? Do you
think one problem is that the police to public ratio is too little, and not
enough police to protect you? Do you then think that private people should be
given the right to bear arms and defennd themselves and their property? I think
you would say yes to all that, right? Right. Now look at it this way....
mallu : another reason i asked if TN is going the Bihar
way is Jayalalitha being the CM. There wont be a second opinion on the fact that
no matter what the court's verdict is, she is going to control directly or
indirectly following the footsteps our one and only Laloo...hail amma...i guess
she may have to make couple of trips to Bihar sson and get few lessons...
Prem Panicker : On this, yes, I definitely agree... one
thing is for sure, the next six months, TN one way or other will be in the
headlines more often than not.
Prem Panicker : Do you think crime is on the rise? do you
think one reason is that lethal weapons are too freely available to the young,
disaffected people? do you think therefore that there should be stricter gun
control laws? See how, depending on how your question is phrased, the anse3r
changes? And who frames the questions? People with their own biases. Which is
why I never take those polls seriously
naveenking : The future of Indian cricket looks up after
the team has had a set of fresh blood in the team.Don't u think that politics
needs a fresh lease of young blood so that India's future too looks up in young
hands Prem Panicker : Most definitely yes. Everyone in
politics today without exception is tainted, no one has the undiluted image. We
need youngg people, with education, passion, vision. Trouble is, given the
condition of politics today, those young people would rather commit suicide than
enter any party... so we are doomed to this sort of situation for quite a while
longer, I would think
Kaushik : Don't you think that Mamata got what she
deserved ? A K Diwanji : She certainly didn't get what she
was expecting and hoping for!!
Kaushik : What about the impact on the BJP ? Is it truly a
national party? Prem Panicker : When was it ever?
gks : Looks downfall of BJP has started from these
elections ..what premji's view !! Prem Panicker : I think
the real verdict on the BJP government will come in UP... one way, or the other,
those results will be more to the point than these, given that in none of these
states does the BJP have any presence worth mentioning. In UP, whatever the
parties say at the time, a state assembly election will be nothing more or less
than a referendum on the BJP as a whole
shanthiem : Premji, To what extend Jaya can bend the
Law??(as a chief minister) Prem Panicker : Post friendly
judges for starters. USe her clout with the CM, at the centre, for another. Both
are things she has done before.
shanthiem : Premji, What will be future for
Karunanithi/DMK?? Prem Panicker : ACtually, that is one
thing I was thinking myself. I dont know if you realise it, butthe DMK is
effectively finished. We will bury the corpse maybe five years later, but the
party is dead. karunanidhi has fought his last election -- and the party does
not have one single leader with similar stature to hold it together, as
Karunanidhi did all these years despite first MGR, then Jaya. So -- unless a
leader emerges miraculously, and it is hard to see who and from where -- I think
the DMK as a political force will not outlive this new assembly
rishi : Will Jayalalithat become CM premji??? Prem
Panicker : I think so yes.
sondur : Question about BJP. The comment I heardthat
Congress always piggybacked on either DMK/AIDMK in the past, so could never do
well.Isn't BJP doing the same and to a very large extent? The way Mamta treated
BJP recently with the railwaybudget was terrible. If you can't push your own
agenda especially on such important matters such as economy,
whygovern? Prem Panicker : Absolutely. The BJP, for all its
criticisms of the Congress, ahs been taking its political and economic cues from
that party -- the Congress should sue it for plagiarism, really. Even now, the
BJP chiefs are saying, "We have nothing at stake in those states, we are only
trying to improve our position" Huh? you are a national party, and have "nothing
at stake" in five states and a total of nearly 900 assembly seats????
hitler : hello,i am vexed up with this democracy,people
have to choose either of two parties,both being involved in many brutal
acts,something should happen to change this process,whereever we
go,bribe,selfish ness,etc i want a change in the whole society Prem
Panicker : Hitler: the ansewr is NOT to post the same thing again
and again, pal. i agree, but what is that change going to be and who is going to
bring it about? the same politicians who ahve a vested interest in maitaning the
status quo?
Prem Panicker : Guys, I need to get some other work done,
so for a while, leaving you with Ambarish Diwanji -- who having spent a whole
heap of time in Delhi orchestrating our political coverage on rediff, is
probably better fitted to answer these questions anyways. Be back later, adios
for now, gone
boogie : is the session closed ? i dont see any replies
from Diwanji... A K Diwanji : i don't have any questions!
Seems you guys are enjoying chatting among yourselves!
hitler : how can left front be able to retain its power
after as long as 25 years of rule with no incumbancy factor,is it because the
opponenets are not strong or left doing well A K
Diwanji : believe me, it is an answer that no one has. I am sure
that even the LF does not know why it keeps winning. But certainly the LF has a
great hold on rural Bengal, where it has implemented land reforms and changed
the landscape. And yes, weak oppositions only help!
naveenking : not really Diwanji.i think u should find this
interesting.Which is the lesser evil DMK or ADMK A K
Diwanji : Choosing a good politician or political party is like
choosing between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea!! But personally, I am dead
against corruption and hence not pleased by Jaya's return to power!! Still, we
have to know why the TN voted for her.
shanthiem : Diwanji, i have posted a question, wondering
even people like cho and Moopanar supported Jaya - the corrupt leader? A
K Diwanji : One fear that both Cho and Moopanar had about DMK is
that it was always seen as being soft on Tamil extremists. Both Cho and Moopanar
believe that on that count, Jaya is better. And for Moopanar, he obviously got a
better deal from ADMK than from DMK!
sondur : Someone asked a question about future of
Karunanidhi and DMK. What about Mamata Banerjee? Is she finished as well? (I
hope so) A K Diwanji : Not really, someone has to occupy the
opposition space, and Mamata is best suited for it. Her problem now will be to
keep the Trinamool Congress intact for the next five years.
bellow : Questions/Chat My Conversation kelucharan says,
Ambarish , Three years back I hadpredicted Prem would ditch cricket for
politics. Tellhim that is the way his stars will take him.bellow says, diwanji,i
think this is a thumbsup win for congress,their morale is high now,infact they
did well in thier regime compared to BJP,congress should be more careful in
taking decisions,because it is the only alternative left for whole india in
coming electionsKunal says, premji are this election results be interpreted as
anti vajpayee wavehitler says, diwanji,i think this is a thumbsup win for
congress,their morale is high now,infact they did well in thier regime compared
to BJP,congress should be more careful in taking decisions,because it is the
only alternative left for whole india in coming electionsshanthiem says, No
Diwanji, but MK promised 40 seats for TMC - a better deal - is it
not??naveenking says, Do u think that Stalin can be a worthy successor to his
more illustrous father as far as A K Diwanji : Let me reply
to that one by one: Will tell Prem;Certainly the Congress must be feeling upbeat,
but one good thing about Indian politics is that states and centre vote patters
are different, and Sonia is still not acceptable; let us see which way the wind
blows a year later.
srinivas : Do you think Karunanidhi will take up the
challenge of being a responsible opposition leader? A K
Diwanji : Karunanidhi will like to see his son Stalin succeed him
and move away from the limelight. So we need to see waht he does. Also, DMK out
of power may not take to Stalin as easily as they may have had the retained
power.
prasadhsk : sir its almost clear that AIADMK is about to
sweep the elections in tamilnadu .will congress oppose jayalaitha candidature
for CM post as this will hamper congress creditality of bringing a person who
has been prosecuted in jail? A K Diwanji : That does seem
unlikely, considering that they supported her in the first place.
hiphiphurray : Is the behaviour of Mamta now not very
unpredictable ? Do you think any political group be comfortable in forming an
alliance with her ? A K Diwanji : No group will be comfy
forming an alliance with Mamata, but if they need her support, they will
certainly do so (despite what the BJP says, if the it came to the crunch, even
they would take her support provided it was available)
Shankar : What do u think will be on top in Jayalalitha's
agenda after assuming power ?? A K Diwanji : I replied to
that earlier: ensuring that the cases against her are dropped or stalled, and
somehow staying on as CM.
shanthiem : can you tell the current status in TN results
(especially the split up in ADMK, DMK fronts) A K Diwanji :
Parties Lead Won DMK+Allies: Lead-38, Won-13; AIADMK+Allies: Lead-195, Won-106;
Others: Lead-1, Won-1
eswaran : DIWANJI, why is that the Tamil chauvanist groups
have not played any part in this elections even after the Rajkumar - Veerappan
episode ?? A K Diwanji : Maybe because Tamil chauvinism is
no longer an issue as it was some decades ago. And the Veerappan-Rajakumar case
was resolved most amicably, hence it never became an issue.
bhutu : Its seems people in bengal dont wants change .we
no longer call the begali people a politically concious community. A K
Diwanji : Many will disagree. Mamata had not endeared herself to
many, including my Bengalli friends, who were taken aback by her street-style
politics and her ditching the BJP for the Congress opportunistically. Maybe the
Bengallis are very astute!
amma : Who will be the TN Chief Minister ? A K
Diwanji : Jaya is on TV right now and she is clearly saying that
she will respect the people's verdict (meaning that she will be the CM!)
shalini : Me thinks the TN winners TMC, PMK et al would be
the most sad people - they cannot share power now and would be sidelined by the
arrogant Jaya! Amberish? A K Diwanji : We all have to see
how Jaya behaves. I think her first priority is to get the cases against her
dropped or at least stalled, and to ensure that she can become CM; so to that
extent she won't ruffled the TMC and PMK. Later, of course, it is anyone's
guess; but then these guys have the option of joining the DMK!!
gogo : what do u think will happen to
mr.murasolimaran A K Diwanji : no idea; hope he stays on as
the Union minister of commerce and industry, because he is really very good
(unfortunately, his ill health is affecting him also).
NADIR : hey mr diwanji wheres my prem uncle? A K
Diwanji : prem uncle is taking a break. I hope he returns to the
Chat, but he is quite busy.
ravichandra : itis obvious that no ruling party will get
mandate twice in recent times A K Diwanji : save for the LF
in Bengal (which almost has a Permanent Settlement), that does seem to be the
emerging trend.
eswaran : diwanji, r u there ?? A K
Diwanji : sure
srinivasjl : what is the latest position of all parties in
states of byelection A K Diwanji : pls chenk the rediff
site.
sushilkumar : This is a sad day for tamilians. Because
they have selected a greatest & corrupt person. Does this indicate that all
tamilians love corruption and greed? A K Diwanji : Certainly
no one loves greed and corruption. But maybe for the poor people in India (&
not just TN), corrution is not the major issue the middle class likes to believe
it is.
sagun : to ab amma kursi per baitengi A K
Diwanji : lagta to hai kuch aisa hi
srinivas : Don't you think people voted against Vajpayee's
handling of the govt.? A K Diwanji : No. Indian politics has
matured to the level that voters differentiate between state politics and
national politics. Thus, while the results will boost Congress morale, it hardly
means that the Congress is set to take over Parliament.
Ramesh : Hi Diwanji. What will impact on BJP/NDA A K
Diwanji : The Congress will be more agressive, and the BJP allies
more restive and also more assertive. But unless some upheaval takes place, the
NDA will continue in power.
bhutu : diwanji... can jyoti basu become governer of
Bangal prvided Congress comes to power at the centre. A K
Diwanji : Extremely unlikely.
srinivas : Why not?It's BJP+Allies who have lost A K
Diwanji : In the states; at the Centre they are still holding
strong. To upset the BJP/NDA at the Centre will take something more than the
current state elections, like the TDP going away or the temple issue becoming
big again.
mcduck : i wonder how u conclude that indiandemocracy has
matured A K Diwanji : to the extent that state and national
issues are seen and voted for differently. this trend has been discernable since
the mid-80s.
bhutu : do you think Tehelka episode played a major role
in bengal verdict. A K Diwanji : Not to sure about the
Tehelka episode, but certainly the way Mamata ditched the BJP in their hour of
crisis obviously riled the people and showed as being untrustworthy. No one
wants a CM who appears non-dependable, Mamata gave that impression.
narayan : I MEAN TO SAY PEOPLE WILL JUST FORGIVE WHTEVER
THE POLITICIANS DOES. NOW IT IS VERY COMMON FOR POLITICIAN THAT THEY ARE SURE
AFTER 3-YEAR EVERY TIME THEY CAN EASILY COME BACK FOR POWER. A K
Diwanji : The tragedy is that people regularly vote out the
politicians, but the person voted in is just another politician, cut from the
same cloth. So even if you boot out one, you have little choice but to vote in
the other. The need is to go beyond a choice of two corrupt politicians.
sushilkumar : Dont You feel that our constitution is
incompetent to weed out such high profile greed and corrupt politicians? A
K Diwanji : The constitution is as good or bad as the people make
it. But I agree that we need more stringent laws against corruption.
rpc : So is ADMK gonna get majority on its own? I hope
not, atleast relying on allies will keep the megalomaniac JJ under
check! A K Diwanji : Yes.
praveen : WHAT MADE UDF GOVT TO POWER IN Kerala? A K
Diwanji : Kerala has the habit of alternating between the UDF and
LDF. But corruption charges against the LDF did play a role.
kaushik_ray : do u see any future for west bengal A
K Diwanji : only if the LF can control its unions. Bengal has no
investment, the best Bengallis are leaving the state by the thousands. The LF
has to give up its old ideas, otherwise the current situation will continue.
mcduck : but mr diwanji elections r wonby giving arrack
sachets toilliterate people an inciting castsentiments A K
Diwanji : Arrack sachets can be given by both sides, so that works
both ways. Yes, caste sentiments are incited, especially nowadays, but at least
major parties often put up people from the same (majority) caste in a particular
constituency. But that is not the only sentiment at work.
sun : In Kerala LDF has done a lot of violence. They have
done a lot of partiality to LDF people. Even in police stattion an LDF supporter
got well treatement. LDF's violence only defined its fate. A K
Diwanji : That may be one reason why they were voted out.
bhutu : Is is there any scope to overthrow LF near future
by centre intervention..is there any possibilities of rigging that bengal govt
did in polling A K Diwanji : I don't think any government
at the Centre will today overthrow a state government, unless gravely provoked.
So that option is out. Rigging is never completely ruled out, but that can never
alone ensure victory or defeat. At best you can rig one or two seats, especially
with the Election Commission so alert these days
sun : Why political scenario in Kerala alter after every
election? A K Diwanji : No definite answer. Why do the
people in Bengal vote for the LF election after elections???
mcduck : diwanji in a democratic countrywhy should we have
unions.has any union fostered discipline ? it has only managed to organize
strikesand stall the development A K Diwanji : We need
unions, otherwise working conditions would be akin to what exist in China:
abysmal. But unions who dictate business and government policies do more harm
than good; and that is what is happening in West Bengal and in our public sector
enterprises.
santosh : can jayallaitha become the chief
minister A K Diwanji : The billion rupee question. This will
be the big issue in the days to come.
A K Diwanji : Guys, I need to take a break. Enjoy chatting
among yourselves, and please avoid nasty language and abuses. I'll be back
later.
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