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'Why is the market going down?'Mumbai, March 5, 2003: 'It's a big mystery. I think it's time to ignore the market and buy good stocks on conviction,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.Administrator : Ramesh Damani will join us for chat in a few minutes. Please post your questions for him. Administrator : Since market hours has been extended till 4.15, Mr Damani will come for the chat at 4.30 pm today. baracuda : all yu guys have yu taken alook at reliance vision fund it has given a consistent +30%for the last two years worth taking acloser lookplus divis tax freein yur hand Ramesh Shrichand Damani : They have had a good run. Good fund manager has taken over. gvs : -- just see how the same people who made money following KP and hershad mehta are now asking for their blood Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Bit like our cricketers,hero to zero to hero DamanisFan : i read a peter lynch books recently ( i think everyone has read that) it put empahsis on Value investing.But indian market are mostly operator driven see HFCL ramco silverline Ramesh Shrichand Damani : They believe in momentum. That is a crazy way to invest. Valuations balloon out of hand. We must take a view and invest. baracuda : is moser bear a good investment after all the positive news flow starting rfom eu antidumptoimmation and now the budjetsops Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Some people whose opinion I respect are bullish. Its margins are inexplicable to me. However, I keep an eye on it. saraf : ramesh bhai why is market is going down what is the downside in market Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Big mystery. I think it is time to ignore the market and make a stand on conviction. Look at stocks yielding 3-4 per cent and having 20 per cent plus growth at good market caps. Those should do well. gvs : saraf, market is going to go below 3000 in the medium term Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It could of course, but I am betting it won't. Handa : Sir, could you please guide me as to how to learn technical analysis of stocks? I have been doing some reading on the subject and have read John Murphy's "Technical Analysis" which explains indicators such as MACD, RSI and stochastics apart from basics such as Support, Resistance etc. Could you please guide me as to how one can learn technical analysis in a more structured manner? Some course or book[s] if you could suggest? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Those books are good. Try bigcharts.com for onlineadvice. Bombay Stock Exchange runs a course on technical analysis. Hope this helps. DamanisFan : 35% spirit market, three biggest liqour brand of india...and mughal king like chairman at the help siphoning off shareholders money (thought its difficult to prove bit i hope you agree with me,otherwise its difficult to explain poor Q3 showing.) Andits only 'cpz of Mallya'sextravagant ways FII zeroed thier position in Mcdowell.And he is always finding innovative ways to waste shareholders money.Now we hear "UB group chairman Vijay Mallya has been ferrying Members of Parliament in his private jet to and fro from South Africa."...STILL BULLISH on McDowell Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Good question. Remember you are buying a business at a particular price. At these market caps you almost can't go wrong. Ultimately like the public sector unit stocks paid off, so will McDowell. You have to be patient and wait. Meanwhile, the dividend of Rs 2 defrays your holding cost. It is for patient ones. I own it. gvs : Damaniji- there was a story in ET today that Washington is coming down heavilyon BPO by American companies-- are u still bullish on this sector? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : That is news only in ET. It doesn't apply to private business (GE, citibank). It is a bogus arguement at this point. vikas : Sir, Are you convinced with Budget . If we remember u said market will be in bull orbit if Dividened tax and capital gains demand have been met ? Till today there is no sign of market gaining momentum Ramesh Shrichand Damani : That is correct and I remain bullish. Investors need to understand it is in their interst to invest in equity. It is crazy if you are young and investing in debt. DamanisFan : sir whats your call on SBI...definitely its cheap at 288 but what can be further trigger for after that big story of FII limit hike is over.any target ?? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I think it offers value. I am still holding on though it is a trading position. moneymani : Damanji, Does Mr.Mallya have any right to play around with Shareholders the way he is doing Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Right no. But this is India. Also remember you are getting it at Rs 200 crore (Rs 2 billion) market cap. If he ran the company correctly, it would be worth a few billion dollars. baracuda : will yu buy indian hotels againwho knows maybe yu have already done so Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It is in my portfolio. I had sold a part of my holding after the Bali bombing. rajesh- : Sir, I would like to switch Hpcl to Mcdowell or e-serve, since hpcl has limited upside. pl give yr valuable opinion. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Not necessarily a good switch. Put money into Mcdowell that you don't need. Low risk high return, but will take time for core portfolio. Buy safer scrips with earnings momentum. hopeful : rameshbhai, i too believed this theory of investing in equity while young and increase debt as u grow grey. however my personal experience is that while i was young i invested in equity and lost almost all of it and that too twice. now when i am not so young i still invest in equity but my returns now are much better and i am actually making money. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : That's interesting. Think of losing money as paying tution fees. Good luck for the future. moneymani : Guru Damaniji, How long Hero Honda will languish at present levels Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Who can predict that? However, it seems a good defensive investment. ravx : The sensex is in the range of 3200-3300. IS it worth buying Sensex linked index funds Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I have done that. If you are bullish on the market and don't know any stock, do that. abha : Sir as advised by u , i have bought SBI on budget day. Now u can see where it has gone. Your further advice. Your views on TISCO in present situation? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I like and own both these stocks. You must have a time frame for investment. Have some conviction. time : If you have to invest in share which share will be your preference seeing the current market and threat of war between US and IRAQ Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I am sticking to the BPO story and some Indian pharma. moneymani : Damaniji, any good investor training programme you know previously CNBC was conducting like that Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Try looking it up at BSE web site. They do such programs. aminur : DEAR RAMESH I THINK MAX AND APOLLO HOS ARE GOOD PICKS AFTER BUDGET SOP. aM I RIGHT? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Apollo looks good. Max does not pay a dividend. So be patient. I own both. murali : rameshji namasthe when the market bottoms out according to elliott wave count which stock should i buy Ramesh Shrichand Damani : You could buy Sensex stocks. If the market moves, the index wil move. VENKAT BHARADWAJ : Dear Sir, I have invested in HDFC Bank 3 years back. IS it worth keeping the shares or to dispose off Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I would hold on. So do I. kotes : IS HFCL a good buy as the PE is too low Ramesh Shrichand Damani : No. nemesis : Hi administrator, can you ask about arvind mnills from ramesh bhai Ramesh Shrichand Damani : They are turning around, but I don't follow it. Past track record has been poor. kotes : GTL is in BPO area and is available at a reasoanable price Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Management issues would make me avoid it. ritu : Hi Ramesh! I'm back to your chat after skipping a few sessions as I was not here. The last thing I bought on your advice was poor Krebs Bio, Which has slipped a decent 20 percent from the levels recommended despite dividend being free of tax. Any takes? Shd i get out of it or any targets? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Investors hold stocks for years. You have to be patient. It is very illiquid and could get knocked down on low volume. If you don't feel comfortable, you could book your losses. SK : Dear Ramesh, What is your pick in HPCL. You think the disinv will go thru this year ??? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Yes it should. ravxy : Sir these days nifty is behaving differently from sensex because of wipro. For an investor do u suggest Sensex linked index funds or Nifty linked index funds Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I would prefer Sensex unless you are bullish on Wipro. amjad : for NRIs, which is safe and good investment as bank interest have come down drastically. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : My suggestion is buy an index-related product if you can't monitor. Otherwise buy large cap with 3-4 per cent yield and large caps. shailesh : ramesh bhai plz tell about bel Ramesh Shrichand Damani : They are doing well. Good yield and modest growth. Hold on to it. rajesh- : Sir, I would like to swith Max and Tvs Electronics to E-serve and Tata honey. pl advice. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : They are at different stages of life. However, if you don't own them I would do the switch. I own all of them. damanifan : What do you think about investing in forign stocks ?Are there any interresting options there ? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Too early for it. moneymani : Will the disinvestment set for the budget be acheived this year atleast Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I doubt it. The number is a meaningless one by the government. aminur : RAMESHJI, NOW THERE IS NO TRIGGER FOR THE MARKET, IN FACT LOT OF NEGATIVES ARE IN WAITING LIST. WHAT'S UR VIEW ON MARKET FUTURE Ramesh Shrichand Damani : The ultimate trigger in the market is value. Stocks with growth, yield and value are a potent combination. uday shah : what about silverline industries. Can that fall even at the current prices. where will that stock get technical support. Once it was 1500 Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I would still avoid it. nmurali2000 : Would u recommend a long term investor to go in for direct equity or Equity fund, at this time.. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Depends on your outlook. If you follow markets, think, enjoy the stimulation, be a direct investor. If you are busy do other things and don't watch the market. Buy an index fund. DamanisFan : damaniji. did you notice unusual volumes in UB ..whats the buzz Ramesh Shrichand Damani : A rights issue is in the offing. rki : Dec'02 quarterly results of Gati are not enthusiastic, its falling continuously, Do u still think it has a great value? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Yes. Look at its market cap.remember nothing is performing in the market sunil : ramesh bhai plz tell about HLL at current price Ramesh Shrichand Damani : As a defensive bet, it is good. Hard to see it outperform the market. vikas : Are u fully convinced with TATA INFOTECH future ? Will SITEL bring back the cheers . Is this right price to enter with300+ in future Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Not fully convinced, but I have started buying it. Good BPO story. Potential merger with tcs will provide a floor. gutti : Mr. Damani , Will India win the world CUP ? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Good bet for the semis. It is four out of six. I figure kenya will surely lose. Amitverma : Mr. Ramesh what will be market position in case india won the world cup Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Hopefully they are not related. aminur : LAST TIME U PREFER STEVE WAUGH THAN SACHIN UNDER PRESSURE, R U STILL HOLD THAT OPINION? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I must admit Sachin's batting under pressure surprised me. It was great. However, you must admit he has not been a world beater over the last three years. This time he has fire in his eyes. sunil : ramesh bhai plz tell about BPCL why it's going up from these levels. I feel it should not move up but everyday it moves up. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : lots of thins affect prices.it is hard to comment on a fewdays movement lokesh : how about silverline tech buy at Rs 11 is it good buy , how is this company's future Ramesh Shrichand Damani : i am not optimistic on it Anandb : Sir i think this time market behaved in unusual manner around budget time .... not gone up or down before budget & after budget still not moving up down significan. .... what is your view on that? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Yes. Very unusual. I remain bullish with a view that I will see some pain. But stock picking of A grade kind will help. vikas : What would u advise in view of UB right issue . To wait or to buy Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I haven't got the prospectus yet. Kannan : What will be the best industry to enter now? apart from bank that is what every one is telling. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : IT-enabled. ashoksamant : After the Budget of what will your prediction regarding boost for Exports,Real Estate in Mumbai and other markets.With Best Regards,Ashok Samant Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Rupee will be strong. This will affect exports. ITES exports will boom though. Real estate in Mumbai will stagnate. Asian equities will do well. aminur : I FULLY AGREE WITH U. BUT SAME TIME I THINK SACHIN HAS CHANGED AS HE IS MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT MIDDLE ORDER. THAT IS GIVING HIM THE FREEDOM TO PLAY HIS SHOT UNDER PRESSURE. GANGULY MADE A REAL GOOD TEAM Ramesh Shrichand Damani : That is correct also. For Sachin to be called great, he has to win a World Cup with the team or singlehandedly. Then he would be great. yousuf : i m from pakistan....and as u know tht karachi stock exchange was recently ranked as the best in the performing stock exchange in the WORLD!........HOW FAR DO U AGREE WITH THT AND WHY HASNT BOMBAY EXCHANGE ABLE TO ACHIEVE THT? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Thanks for joining in. Nice to hear from you. When is Pakistan State Oil going to be sold and to whom? Karachi has been on a tear due to better liquidity and dollars flowing in. Also some political stability. Due to have an infotech sector in Pakistan. Do sign in. Would love to chat with you. Bombay moved in 2000 to 6000 level currently it is 3300 level. nemesis : yeh YUSUF kangal desh mai rehta hai aur baate badi badi karta hai. America kai daan par zinda hai woh desh(The one india defeated badly on 1st of march) Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Let's respect each other as citizens. We can get along as human beings. Kannan : Which Pvt Bank would be the first take over target if a foreign investor decides to enter India...or are on the cards. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Vysya bank is taken over Bank of Punjab, Karur HDFC bank are good candidates. gutti : Damaniji If u have 100000/- to invest then what will be the first two company share u will buy ? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Look at previous transcripts. I can't answer this question every week. sumit : I am working in R&D organisation. Would the job prospects improve? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Yes, if your company starts outsouring work. bshankar : Hello Ramesh bhai,can I hold, HLL,Chambal,Indswift lbas and Mcdowell for one year. What are the prospects? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I don't own Indswift. The rest seem okay. pravinbhai : I seriously believe that the markets cannot have a bull-run in the absence of either a govt-sponsored bull or a bull with a full and implicit support of the ruling govt. What is your opnion ? Damani Saheb; and if you oncur with this view, dont u think it is high time the govt finds a suitable bull and sponsors it. Of course, these are all implied, it never comes as news; one has to surmize. Opinion ? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Those things happen by default if they do at all. Remeber what Mao said: "Power is never given. It is taken." If companies are good, they transcend any operator. gutti : R u optimistic about CESC ? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Dark horse after passage of Electricity Bill. Management is not shareholder friendly. Anandb : IS there is some serious probleme in outsourcing deal from US TO INDIA OR THIS IS JUST A HYPE BY MEDIA......? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Seems hype to me. Sharath Babu : I want to start a new logistics company that concentrates on outsourced logistical services.Sir what do you think? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : You mean like Gati/Blue dart? jjpandit : dear sir i have asked 2 question 2 times unfortunetly not reply pl answe me 1- fedaral bank one can invest fdi limit hike in ove bank2- i have essel propack share since one yr can one hold or add at historic low preice if u have any idea give me answer i will thankful to u Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I don't really follow them. However, fed bank is cheap and Essel is okay at current levels. rajes : Sir, I hold Laxmi Auto, Goldium Intl, and Blue Star Infotech. I would like to Swith these stocks to Stocks like E serve and Tata Honeywell, to reduce the no. of stocks in my portfolio. yr advice pl Ramesh Shrichand Damani : They are good choices if you want to concentrate your holdings. aminur : RAMESHBHAI, JUST FORGIVE THOSE OBNOXIOUS ELEMENTS. IT'S A PROFESSIONAL HAZARDS. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : No sweat. ashgene1 : Seeing the fallout of the biotech sector stocks despite high claims by the companies ,why is such a trend going and since india could not afford costly biotech research do u think these companies esp in bangalore will survive? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : We just have a few companies and not at the cutting edge. They should concentrate on outsourced research. modidakshesh : no answer for 7 questions asked on colour chem ? should i quit ? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I can only answer a few questions remember? I am one too many. Color Chem price is based on open offer. gvs : damaniji-- are the stories in leading news papers and magazine reliable? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Not always. Kannan : Now that Dividend is tax free in the investors hand...I thought the first to go thru the roof would have been COLGATE and HLL....but it doesn't seem to be happening...any reason? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Lack of growth. sunil : Actually I heard few FIIs are shifting from HPCL to BPCL is it true?? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Not heard about it per se. vikas : which ONE we can buy POLARIS , MACMILLAN , TATA INFOTECH , INFOTECH ENTERPRISE Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Mcmillan and Tata Infotech look good at these rates. Watch Infotech. No view on polaris. yousuf : hey ramesh bhai.......i m a student of business and i was just wonderin tht why is the STOCK EXCHANGE given so much importance in an economy and can it play a vital role in pakistans economic revival!?...plz reply Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Yes it can. Stock markets allocate capital. Other wise central planners do. They tend to build white elephants. Markets make mistakes too, but the risk is private and not on tax payers or the exchequers. Where do you study and what do you study? yousuf : I'm doing A levels from a private school. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Thanks. Do log in again and good luck in your A levels. Thanks all for joining. See you next week. prakash : Rameshji, Indogulf is demerging. U get 1 share of Hindalco and 2.4 shares of Fertilizer company for 12 shares of Indogulf. With this U get the fertilizer company share at @18 per share which seems a wise investment ..your views please. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It looks good if you like the sector. I have no preference for fertiliser. |