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'ONGC could become a bellwether stock'Mumbai, March 4, 2004: 'Small retail investors will make money at listing,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.maha : Sir, BIOCON- with Rs. 100 crore equity and FY04(E) Profit of Rs. 120 crore- the EPS works out to Rs. 6 (on F.V.Rs.5). Don't you think the issue is very much aggressively priced at PE of 52.5. The co. need to grow at the rate of 70% till 2006 to bring down the PE to more realistic levels. Is it worth subscribing in IPO? Pl advise. RameshS Damani : Hello everyone. Thanks for joining, let's start. Tthe issue is very aggressively priced. However it will receive enthusiastic response and open with a gap. I would not buy in IPO since allotment will be poor. rishi : sir, why do u think balaji's revenue model is sustainable? RameshS Damani : The media business is in its infancy, I think it is sustainable. anaamika : Sir,Please throw some light on GEOMETRIC SOFTWARE..Whether to hold or get out of it? RameshS Damani : Next year is crucial. They must deliver growth. The jury is still out on them for the next year. However, management is good so give them some slack to deliver. chat : sir if we were to pick up a stock with two to three years horizon then if the bull run was to come to an end within one year then what happens to the such a stock.wont there be a significant erosion in its price RameshS Damani : That depends. Stocks do go up in bear market but it is very hard. You can't control macro factors but you can pick your stocks. Value will surface and ups and downs are a part of the game. Buy wherever you have conviction. rishi : sir what do u think is the value of united breweries (holding)'s property (in banglore) value? RameshS Damani : They have about 13 acres. 3 acres were sold for around Rs 33 crs I heard recently. sudipto : Sir at what price are u going to apply for ongc IPO. Please guide us as otherwise we have to apply at cut-off price. Will it be wise to sell tata motors( at current price) and appky for oncg ipo, PTC ipo. Please help. Thanking u in advance. RameshS Damani : I am not planning to apply for ONGC IPO. However, I think small retail investors will make money at listing. With its float and m-cap it could become a bellwether stock. What to sell is for you to decide. ashish : Sir, Can you please throw some lights on the future of BEML RameshS Damani : They are doing well and should show strong growth over the next 3 years. VVS : Good evening, Mr Damani. Could you enlighten me which are the PSUs that are NOT in the immediate future disinvestment range that one could accumulate as potential multibaggers? Thank you. RameshS Damani : The time to accumulate PSU was 2 years back. They are now all well priced and gains will be normal not spectacular. Look to other sector for multiple gains. baracuda : any idea why mark faber is bearish on india in the short term RameshS Damani : Too much enthusiasm, IPO's make him nervous. However it is a short-term call. sidd : sir how would balaji's top line grow significantly? by launching a tv channel in the near future?and is it true that it has significant cash equivalents in its balance sheet?thank u in advance RameshS Damani : New programming is the key. Moving into films etc. It has about Rs 60-75 crs cash in balance sheet last year. susmita : goodevening sir, chowgule steamship is going down.should i still hold or sell it RameshS Damani : I recently sold some, as year-end exercise. However, I remain bullish on shipping. baracuda : continuing with beml could yu please enlighten us about the 3qrt results they were no where to be found hence buying the stock bcoms difficult unless im convinced RameshS Damani : They are benefiting from a new defense order and for new rail wagons. View this stock year-on-year not every quarter. rishi : liqour industry : they pay huge taxes, have great brands and growing market, but low profitability. DO you think it profits are understated (for tax reasons)? RameshS Damani : Yes. Bad corporate governance, they are regulated by the state. However the industry will be deregulated. sanujkadavil : SirHow are you sir. Hope you are fine. Last two session I cant participate.Shaw Wallace gone over 60% in last two weeks. Any particular news . herbertsons going favor of shaw waalace? Or normal value buying. But its market cap gone over mcdowell. RameshS Damani : These things will keep happening. When value is unlocked both stocks will participate. sanujkadavil : SirNormaly holding companies are like mutual fund. If the share price increases also NAV of mutual fund increasing. Do you think if mcdowell go to 500 . coorespondingly UB holding go to 1000rs .becoz it holds 45% in mcdowell. RameshS Damani : It should broadly do that, however sometimes market does not value holding company's holding. Buy some of both stocks but I always say be patient. vatsal : hows looking elgi equipments to u? whats ur idea about jl morison at the price 138? RameshS Damani : No view on Elgi. JL Morrison will do well since it is a cheap stock and low market cap. rsdadmirer : Dear Mr.Damani, while the prognosis for engineering and infrastructure seems to be good over the next three to five years, and while other engineering and inf. stocks have been delivering, why in your opinion Ingersoll Rand has been languishing? It has been a disappointment. Thanks. RameshS Damani : You are right. Numbers have been sluggish. However, let me take a re-look at the stock to see if it offers value. Mathew : Hi Ramesh, your view on the sugar sector pls. Prices are on an upswing, crop is expected to be short. The govt policy of releasing stocks under the free quota would actually help the mills to liquidate old stock. And defenitely once the elections are over govt maynot actively interfere. Your take. RameshS Damani : Yes, the stocks should have a good year. Other than the favourites take a look at EID Parry. baracuda : does applying for the power trading ipo make sense when it is already oversuscribed 3.5 timesas of today RameshS Damani : It will close at 50 times or so-so. It may not make sense. MALIK : Sir, we consider you as as our guru and as per your advice i holding my investment although the market is falling and it is likely to continuedue to year end in the march and in the april due to election .we are in catch 22 situation . Please advice what to do RameshS Damani : That is the right strategy. Stay invested, I am optimistic about the market. sachin : sir there was a block deal on colgate any news about it RameshS Damani : No. pra : Good Evening Sir,The markets do not seem to have enough strength to move up. wonder whether the bull market still exists. auto stocks can quote at PE of 25++ but HPCL/BPCL good sound companies find it difficult to susatin at a PE of even 9/10.?? RameshS Damani : Remember Buffett. In the short run markets are a popularity machine in the long run they are voting machines. sanujkadavil : SirLast wek I got message from vindhya chaabria of shaw waalce they are going to debt free in 2005. so this will help to make more profit. But last two years shawwallace topline down from 800 cr to 200. what is the prime reason . is it because of demerging of beer business? when is next hearing of herbertsons. Jan 15th supreme court says feb13th next hearing.. but no news on that day. When will it settle. Any call?????? RameshS Damani : Yes due to demerger. sanujkadavil : SirAny particular news on sree rajastan syntax. Counter witnessing some huge buy orders. I think jhunjhunwala accumulating his position . but problem of these companies no fund or high networth indivduls would not look it because of its small size. And we have large number of textile stocks ..would you agree on that????? RameshS Damani : They are planning an expansion into finished garments. The synthetic yarn business is still struggling. Again at a market cap it is a good bet. sachin : what is ur call on mnc pharma and what are ur picks in it RameshS Damani : Over 1-2 years. I am bullish on them. sanujkadavil : Interbrew and Ambev deal??????????? what is it si RameshS Damani : Look it up on the net. Sid : Hello uncle. Can suggest two pharma stocks each in the large and midcaps which would benefit most post 2004? Thanx for ur advice. RameshS Damani : IPCA is having a great year and Lupin is doing well. I own them but they have had a great run, so be careful. vatsal : Any idea abt IPO gone called "Four soft"? RameshS Damani : I applied for some. Management is strong. However it is coming at a good premium. vikas1 : INDIAN NIPPON : I checked they had wonder ful last 5 years but this year is lamost flat on revenue as well as earning. why are you so bullish on the stock RameshS Damani : Exposure to the auto ancillary. ameya : Sir i want ur advice regarding sell or hold on Reliance,IDBI,HDFC Bank RameshS Damani : I would hold on. I own HDFC Bank. sanujkadavil : last week jim rogers says he likes to buy sugar stocks.but india no major and good size sugar company .. bbecoz og govt regulation. do you think govt deregulate sugar industry for globalising the industry..if he buys which will go through any guess... also dalal stret last wek quoting on last page that jhunjhunwala boutght some stakes in sugar company.. is every body bullish on sugar,, RameshS Damani : You have good choices but like liquor it is heavily regulated. Look at Bajaj Hindustan or EID Parry. They could do well in an upswing. vikas1 : Gillette : Q4 was sluggish . Is 600 good level to enter RameshS Damani : Yes. rishia : sir, in Indian markets what pe will you give to a company with stable (stagnent) profits year after year RameshS Damani : They get low multiples, under 10. rsdadmirer : Dear Mr.Damani, There has been some concerned debate going on in the print media about 'jobless growth'. 8% growth and no commensurate increase in jobs-do you see it as a dampener on the markets in the long run? Can further growth be inhibited by such joblessness? Thanks. RameshS Damani : That is for the US, India employment is booming thanks to BPO. probal : Sir did really RJ took position in Shree raj syntax? RameshS Damani : I don't know, I doubt it. vikas1 : Indian Nippon/ Gillette / Monsanto : All are in different field but one does not have money to buy all 3 . Can you give your orde of preference RameshS Damani : If only one take a look at Gillette for a long-term view. pra : Fine. we buy some good stocks at current levels. then the markets go down bcoz of a correction or bcoz it has run up 100%. then what do we do with our holdings...just see it getting depreciate..difficult to digest?? RameshS Damani : You have to ride the ups and down market. Timing is impossible. You will end up with bad stocks and sell the good stocks, trust me. kool : sir iam holding 500 bank of punjab@25 please advice hold or sell RameshS Damani : Hold madhu : Hello Sir, I don't wnat to miss your program in CNBC, please tell me When are you going to come in CNBC RameshS Damani : The timing is a bit unstructured, I am sorry. chaandani : sir please guide us should we hold on to BPL VEDEOCON AS TV sales may be higher in next two months.. pleeeeeease guide me.. RameshS Damani : I don't follow these companies. NEWBIEATSTOCK : sir i have 3 lakhs and am not sure how to divide it, ive decided to put 50,00 in sundaram finance,tisco,sbi....... but i cant decide about the other which ones would u suggest (u gave a nice baske the other day) but i cant decide from them as they'r too many. thanks RameshS Damani : If you want large caps look at Tata Infotec and in smaller caps Godrej Ind and Goldiam. vikas1 : KALE : UP STRONGLY TODAY , ANY NEWS RameshS Damani : No. streetsmart : Please give us your view on TV 18.. RameshS Damani : They are doing well. Roopa : Rameshbhai, awaiting your reply. One hears market pundits talking of a boom in the commodities. Do you subscribe to that theory? If so, please suggest five commodity stocks that one can buy now to ride on the boom. Grateful for your time. RameshS Damani : Tisco for steel, EID parry for sugar, Tata Tea for tea (prices still sluggish). These are good places to begin. vatsal : Any idea abt ELgi tyreThread with debt free reserve of 120cr. on 4.3cr capital. RameshS Damani : Sorry, I do not follow it. vikas1 : CREST / NELCO : Can we enter now or wait for some downward move RameshS Damani : They look okay at current prices. Buy them as a basket with Kale and Logix. vikas1 : ZODIAC CLOTHING : Do u think its good price to buy and u see bonus in near future as its equity is very small and hence low liquidity RameshS Damani : They are doing well and a bonus should come in the next year. baracuda : today are the results of fci oen connectors any idea how they have fared RameshS Damani : My friend tells me that they are going to do well next year. Outsourcing is growing. chaandani : sir it is hoped and predicted that sensex is likely to touch five figure by year end so WHICH STOCKS ARE LIKELY TO APPRECIATE most..??? RameshS Damani : That would be unlikley. But if you believe that buy the Sensex heavyweights. NEWBIEATSTOCK : so TIsco,sbi,sfinance,goldiam,godrej industries. 3 laks in 5 companies or should i add one more,its qite confusing RameshS Damani : These are just suggestions, you have to decide. arahaman : DEAR RAMESH, PLS GIVE YOUR COMMENT ABOUT PETRONET LNG. RameshS Damani : Good for people with a 3-year view. May get it cheaper than IPO after 6 months. Mathew : Ramesh, your take on Agrotech foods. After all Conagra is one of the largest food companies in the world RameshS Damani : Yes it is good value, I own some. NEWBIEATSTOCK : or do u suggest adding one small tech company ...! RameshS Damani : In a basket at this stage. They are too small to be confident about them. dj : Sir I have a huge exposer in monsanto. Plese suggest if i need to switch some part to Gillete. Please advise RameshS Damani : I own both, but Gillette may be better over 3 years. vikas1 : I want to invest 5 lac as fresh invest with no hurry for returns . Would you advise me putting in real estate orr shall i buy LIQUOR COS ( 70% Mcdowell , 20% ub beer and remaing shaw wallace ) and forget for 2-3 yrs RameshS Damani : I would not put it all in liquor as you will get frustrated. Smaller amounts will get over time. KKK : Good evening Sir... metal boom is based on weaker US$ coupled with chinese demand and speculation... copper prices are at 12 year high... allumionium at 4 year high and so on.... and all other metals too had a wonderful run.... BUT do you think this run would be sustained? i have my doubts cause whenever there was a boom in metal prices... most of the time it was becuase of one or other speculator and not on fundametals.... your views sir RameshS Damani : I disagree. If speculators could make markets commodity would not be in a bear market for 20 years. NEWBIEATSTOCK : sir recently ive started working on a study on commodieits over the years and how they behave in different economic phases starting with gold ill move onto others can u tell me some places to starts looking for good information RameshS Damani : I can't remember specific books but do a search on the Net, I'll think about any sources sanujkadavi : sira fun question.. how much is portfolio value. i finds that you have positions in lots of companiess..just for a fun RameshS Damani : My core positions are few. I buy the rest to get a feel or on some recommendations. Thanks for joining. See you next week. Bye. |