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'Bull market will continue'Mumbai, May 4, 2004: 'Once a bull market starts it could be bent but not broken,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.Rajiv : RAMESH,HOW WOULD YOU VIEW GE SHIPPING OVER NEXT FEW QUARTERS? THE STOCK IS JUST UNABLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE NARROW RANGE IN WHICH ITS TRADING. WHATS YOUR VIEW? Ramesh S Damani : GE results have been good but investors are fearing China slowdown, which would impact freight rates. My sense is they will be okay, I own it. Rajiv : WERE YOU HAPPY WITH TATA ELXSI's RESULTS? HOW IS THE ORDER BOOK AND WHAT IMPORTANT EVENTS WERE YOU LOOKING FOR BEFORE INCREASING ACCUMULATION? Ramesh S Damani : Extremely happy. Loved the dividend. They should increasingly become a hub for R&D. I own it. ajay123 : rames what effect will slowing chinese economy and likwhood of ud fed raising intrest rates sooner than kater , have on indian stock market? Ramesh S Damani : Fed rates impact are dramatic. Last time they raised rates sharply we had Orange County, Mexico crisis etc. First impact would be down if rate rise is more than 1%. However I believe in time the Indian markets will recover. ganesan : hi , i am new to share market. I like to invest in the below shares. What do u recommend.Samtel colour ,petronet ,dena bank,iob,bom,D-Link,Andhra Bank,Allahabad Bank,Syndicate bank,Tata Elxsi,UCO,Bank of Punjab,City union bank,indusind bank. which share do u recomment among the above. Ramesh S Damani : I am sorry, but I try to avoid giving tips like that, occasionally I may inform what I have bought and why. ajay123 : ramesh, whatz ur view on GATI????IS IT A BUY AT CURRENT LEVELS??? Ramesh S Damani : It looks awfully cheap to me. I own it. charudatt : Helli sir ,Gillette is up 20 % in last 3 days .Is it okay to buy at Rs 660 Ramesh S Damani : Yes, if you are a patient investor. ganesan : Ramesh, i am in US, i like to invest 1-2 lacs in the share market. Which share do u recomment me to buy. I can hold upto 12 months. this is my email ganesan_rk80@rediffmail.com Ramesh S Damani : Keep reading this column for ideas. rishib : Sir have u had a look at bhushan steel. rs22 eps and 4pe, expansion to bear fruit in FY)5, company hedged as it improts RM, even a moderate decline in margins/volume doesnt impact compeling buy argument, a domestic demand play?? Ramesh S Damani : Thanks for the information. ahmedabadguy : Rameshji Congrats on getting invited on investment summit alongside stalwarts of Indian Financial market Ramesh S Damani : Thanks it is a privilege. rishib : CEMENT, prices are likely to move up. which ae the best bets?? sri cement, grasim?? Ramesh S Damani : Ambuju looks good on a chart basis. I trade in it. venkitesh : Mr damani-iam from coimbatore. Iam not well in English pls co-op with my English. 1st time participating the chat . I read your earlier transcripts. I feels u are very much bullish on liquor stocks , like ub & mcdowel.But I asking it may be cheap in valuation , but it's a poor managed company. The mgmt donot want a profit. They are getting commission from govts . and not showing actual sales. I think mc has good weight in ur portfolio. It will suck your money. Better exit at any rises.it never go beyond 80 rs. U also recommends ub holdings. I like the stock. Some times sale of Aventis and bayer shares held by ub. And give good dividends. But iam not sure about ub city . construction has not yet started. it wil not be come in next 5 years. What iam asking you -what are the specific reasons to invest ub holding and mcdowell?????????????????And u recommended ub holding in CNBC as your best bet for 2004. how it will be??/ nothing will happen in one year.. no news will come a year t Ramesh S Damani : If you are a value investor you buy when you see value. I don't think you can time the market. People who bought says PSU stocks or steel stocks in 2000 underperformed but were ultimately vindicated. You need to bring conviction in your trade and a belief that the value will be unlocked. I have explained my logic many times. Also UB Holdings is a dark horse. venu : sir, how does the results of Suven looks to you . Can we consider some exposure in that stock now or should wait for some more time. Ramesh S Damani : I am sorry, I was travelling and have not looked at it yet. HiRDamani : SIR, MY QUESTION ABT ANY SUGAR STOCKS.HAVE U HAD ANY CHANCE TO STUDY ANY SUGAR STOCKS.I AM SURE A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE LOOKING FOR SUGAR STOCKS Ramesh S Damani : Sugar has been having a great times. I won EID Parry. However I am no expert on sugar shares. sanujkadavil : SirDid you gone through MOUNT SHIVALIK INDUSTRIES . and got any more information. How would you rate the scrip especially after tie-up with cobra beer. I think these brewer companies maynot move unless de-regulation happens. Ramesh S Damani : I did look at the results. You are right deregulation should be a big trigger for the stock. I am not sure when that would happen. ahmedabadguys : Sir you feel Gati is very cheap but unless it gets certain size in term of T.O. and Balancesheetsize it will be unnoticed for big participants and remains undervalued for long long time to come..Why choose this kinds of company Ramesh S Damani : Logistics is going to be a big business. Sometimes you have to be patient and wait. sanujkadavil : SirWhy bharti going like a rocket. Its trading a p/e of over 60. even if they post a netprofit of 2500 cr. The e.ps will be only 10rs. Even 10rs the stock already discounted 17 times. Do you think bharti will good bet for medium term. Ramesh S Damani : As you may have noticed market pays for growth and more for sequential growth. Bharti is in the zone right now. ValueInvestor : Are u impressed with GAILs current results Ramesh S Damani : Yes. They will be a steady compounder -- nothing flashy just solid quarters. HiRDamani : DO U THINK NELCO AND GOLDIAM ARE MULTI BAGGERS(AT LEAST 5 TIMES ) IN AN YR Ramesh S Damani : No. venu : sir, have u seen any stocks about to break out technically. if you have anything please give 1 or 2 Ramesh S Damani : Gujarat Ambuja looks ready. ValueInvestor : If McDowell is a value stock and available at Cheap prices then why is not Warren Buffet and other global investors not interested in buying them or taking over them Ramesh S Damani : That is for them to decide. I have laid out the logic - which I am convinced about. sanujkadavil : SirWhat about ongc. U always questioned about the valuations of ongc. At p/e terms it is not stretched. We have lots of mid cap and large cap scrips at attractive valuations and can expect a 50-100% return in 2-3 years . but in case of ongc. If it goes to 1500rs . its mkt/cap will be 50$billion. Ie we can repay 45% of foreign debt by selling ONGC. Do you think ongc deserves a market value of 50$bilion in next two years Ramesh S Damani : Market apparently likes this stock and hence the valuation. It has got fancy of FIIs who want India/oil and gas exposure. My sense is that it is headed higher. israr : sir what will be the effect of NDA getting seats somwhere between 255-275 and ultimately form the goverment will bull market continue Ramesh S Damani : My sense is that the bull market will continue irrespective of what happens on May 13. Once a bull market starts it could be bent but not broken. ValueInvestor : Do u feel that in future NSE will overtake the BSE ? If so how soon do u feel this will happen? Ramesh S Damani : They have in terms of volume and market share. mahesh : retail story seems to be the flavour of the future would u recommend to buy pantaloon & trent at current level please comment Ramesh S Damani : I have never quite come to grip with the retail story so I would pass on the two at these prices. venu : Also how's krebs biochem is looking and you were saying in your earlier chats as there is some strike .pleaseeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Ramesh S Damani : I have not checked on that. UDHBAV- : Sir, polaris Foursoft and Visualsoft at this level looks very attractive Ramesh S Damani : I think tech as a whole is looking attractive to me. Foursoft is a young company and needs to be watched, Visual is probably going to do okay from these levels. ahmedabadguys : Sir Do you track Mirza tanner stock..It has given 3 rs. interim div. already and stock is available at 60 rs.Also its Red tape is a good brand name and good export business model..your view?? Ramesh S Damani : Yes, it is a well run company. ValueInvestor : When do u fell the time will come when Indian Stock Markets remain strong & in-different to the way American Stock Markets perform ? Ramesh S Damani : Timing is difficult to say but if the bull market is to continue then it must happen. ahmedabadguys : Yes i agree logistic is a sunrise industry but do you have the feeling that gati pramoters have positive thinking of getting global partner..Only in that case stock can be multibegger and worth holding..do you see them increasing dividendfrom 2,5 rs. to 4 rs( year 2002div) as profit is on rise again Ramesh S Damani : I think people get influenced by price and pass judgments on the company. If it was a Rs 200 stock everyone would be gung ho. ValueInvestor : Sir U are a great role model for many of the retail investors like us but why are not other great Indian Investors not coming out in open and sharing their views and philosophy of Investing ? Ramesh S Damani : It's a personal decision. Some maybe shy, some may be nervous to speak. However knowledge like love is best when spread. Rajiv : HAVE YOU LOOKED AT HIMATSINGKA'S FUTURE PROSPECT AND VALUATIONS. IS THERE SCOPE FOR STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN BUSINESS? Ramesh S Damani : It is a well run company and I am sure they will find ways to grow. I own it. vikas : logix : There was big movement today. Has result been out or any news. Shall we keep on holding Ramesh S Damani : Results were out a few days back. They were upbeat. ValueInvestor : I am a great follower of Buffetts philosphy of Value Investing but I find it difficult to adopt in Indian Conditions as many of the value stocks belong to the PSUs and the un-certainity of disinvestment always poses threat to my investments ? Kindly comment what should value investors like me do in such cases ? Ramesh S Damani : Remember value investments are not market performers. When trigger happens they catch up. If you find good value and prospects of a trigger buy the stock and don't try and time it. anaam : Sir,Linc Pen has come out with lovely results yet it surprises me taht share is not reflecting the same in its price? Ramesh S Damani : Still below the radar, they should declare a good dividend this year, I still own it. HiRDamani : DO U THINK NELCO AND GOLDIAM ARE MULTI BAGGERS(AT LEAST 5 TIMES ) IN AN YR--- WHAT TIMEFRAME DO U SUGGEST FOR THESE STOCKS? Ramesh S Damani : No it is unlikely. ahmedabadguys : well sir I agree at 200 rs. people will start talking about Gati but to make it stay at this prise small companies and its pramoters needs lot of sequential vision,integrity and growth to match them..Do you have that conviction about about Gati like you have value conviction in mcdowell which is much bigger company Ramesh S Damani : McDowell is a much more valuable franchise and business. However, I like Gati. ValueInvestor : In Indian Context whom do u feel make more money is stock markets in the long term 1) Traders 2) Momentum Investors 3) Value Investors 4) A mixture of all the three Ramesh S Damani : You need to be comfortable with whatever style you follow and don't mix them. I think we have successful exponents of all though momentum investing puzzles me. Kmanoj : Do u expect the FMCG to perform well in the next quarter - can u identify any particular stock. I feel colgate and Britannia are good picks Ramesh S Damani : I would include Dabur and Gillette. AnandBhatt : Hello Sir,should one buy Sugar stocks like pper Ganges at these levels too?They have gone up more than 100% in the last one month.Thanks Ramesh S Damani : They are going to come out with excellent results. However, it is for traders at these levels. nriinv : Mr. Damani Mr. Buffet already mentioned yesterday that inflation is heated in the US, and interest rates are too low and should rise. With the clout he has dont you think it is the signal for interest rates to go up in the USA and which might damper the equities. Ramesh S Damani : That is a likely event but I think over time all these things even out. Find a great company growing at 30 per cent with good valuations and don't worry about broader market, which you can't control anyway. anaam : Sir,J.B.Chemicals is one comany which I have invested in along with Unichem. Both having identical balance sheet.Unichem has performed well while J.B.Chem is testing my patiance.Am I going wrong in selecting this co? Have missed something which others see? Ramesh S Damani : I am not sure why the difference but that is frustrating. If you figure out the reason do let me know. HiRDamani : ANY NEW STOCKS WHICH WE INTEREST YOU , ABT WHICH U R BULLISH AND WE CAN STUDY THOSE STOCKS?? Ramesh S Damani : I mentioned Tata Elexi UDHBAV- : sir should the investor hold NDTV stock or sell in the same week of listing Ramesh S Damani : Since FIIs are not allowed to buy media stocks it may not have huge moves after listing. vikas : Do u boldly recommend Tata Elexi to hold for a yr.. Why sUNDARAM fINANCE IS NOT MOVING AT ALL Ramesh S Damani : As far as Tata Elexi is concerned, my answer is yes. I do not have an answer as to why Sundaram is not moving. rishibb : HINDUSTAN CONSRTRUTION. WHAT DO U FEEL SIR. WILL IT BENIFIT FROM THE CNSTRUCTION BOOM.(DESPITE ITS BANDRA SEA LINK CONTROVERSY) Ramesh S Damani : They should do well. ahmedabadguys : I invested in mcdowell but also did some investments in radico as pramoters were open to give guidence of 30% annual growth for next 5 years and also they tried to clean balance sheet..Market responded to that and there might be good placement also..In any case share holders of radico are much happier lot then mcdowell...Do you suggest holding on to radico or book profit in that counter ... Ramesh S Damani : No that was good. However remember McDowell controls 40 per cent of the market so wealth creation prospects are greater there. rishibb : BALAJI. THEY HAVE DELAYED THE RESULTS. INTEGRITY ISSUE. UR TAKE? Ramesh S Damani : A lot of companies are declaring results after some time they are legally allowed to do it. bwadia2 : IDBI bank has given excellent results but it looks like the parent merger hangover is taking a toll on it. WHat are your views on the same?? Ramesh S Damani : Difficult to say, thanks all for joining. See you next week. Bye. rishibb : SIR UR VIEWS ABOUT TCI. BIG FLEET AND DISTRIBUTION ENTWORK. BUT LOW TRADING VOLUMES Ramesh S Damani : It is a sister concern to GATI. I am happy with that holding. |