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'The market for tech is reviving'Mumbai, September 3, 2002: 'I believe that tech stocks will outperform from these levels. I would increase my exposure to the IT-enabled sector,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.
RAVI : IS IT TIME TO BUY TECHNOLOGY STOCKS Ganesh : Market move is disappointing after UTI bailout? Positive news on disinvestment would trigger the market? Ramesh S Damani : UTI bailout is tax payer-led. No hard decisions have been taken. Divestment looks hard. If it happens, it would be a great trigger. Ahmedabadguy : Well Mr. Damani world markets are going down with Japan at 18 years low and Dow and Nasdaq are still at the higher end from their recent lows..What is your views on our market going forward for next few months..... Ramesh S Damani : Japan caught me by surprise. However, typically major bear market send with 18-20 year lows. At least Japan would be watchful. US is still iffy. stockChild : I purchased Sonata Software at 16. Do you forsee any appreciation in Price ?? How is company doing in your perception?? Ramesh S Damani : Market rumor is that it is up for sale. sgt : What is your outlook on Arvind Mills & CMC ? Ramesh S Damani : I like CMC at current market cap. It is cheap. anaam : Dear Mr Damani,Today you may have received the Balance Sheet 2001-02 of E-Serve. Sir,please your first reaction on it. Ramesh S Damani : First the bad news. Management is promising only 25 per cent growth this year. That is below my expectation. Good news is that the company is gushing cash. They have made a provision (unncessary in my opinion) for Rs 10 crores. That implies a profit of Rs 22 crore and not 12 crore, if they start growing again this will be the stock to watch. sagar : dear rameshji,,,,thanks for advicing tata honeywell, i bought at 200 and today its 233, thankswhat price should i exit atleast 50 percent of my stock in this Ramesh S Damani : I'm glad to hear that. I am visiting them again and will update you on the net. I have made an investment call. The rest is for you to decide. baracuda : dear rd i have reduced my weightage in psus by 2lacs by selling hp bp and beml please advice where to invest this money now i hpoe yu will respondand help me in the process of wealth creation Ramesh S Damani : I have reduced my holding in PSU stocks too. It would be IT-enabled, that is the sunrise sector. benjamingraham : any views on paper stocks.Bilt and TNPL, benefitting from paper cycle, which is on an upswing. Plus, bilt is restructuring and tnpl is divestment candidate. also good div. yield. ur views pls. do these stocks look promising to u as well Ramesh S Damani : They look good at current valuations. However, I am not fond of the sector. suraj : After you mentioned Onward in your previous chat, I did see the results, looks like it is a good company with good reserves Ramesh S Damani : However, I have been disappointed with them in the past. With CAD/CAM booming, they should do well. I own a small amount. sk : Hello, Mr. Damani , good Afternoon - so what u r picking upin particular - howz market looking to you Ramesh S Damani : Selling some PSUs and buying selective IT-enabled. kapu : kapu:well sir how is macmillan looking a current prices. Ramesh S Damani : Looks good at the current rate. Sheetal : In IT enabled - is HTMT good especially because of its Fascel stake and CAS triggers?? Ramesh S Damani : It is well valued at Rs 1200 crores plus. It is good to trade in at these rates. anaam : Sir,Since last one week there is an undercurrent in all IT Enabled shares like Geometric & E-Serve is moving nicely. It seems E-Serve is stronger than Geometric. What do you mean " to watch"? To be cautious ? Ramesh S Damani : No. If things go right, this could be a spectacular stock. It is pricey but good stocks always are. baracuda : do yu still view bel and concor as investments as long as georgey is def min it will never be disinvested Ramesh S Damani : I sold some concor on a tradingcall. BEL, I am watching. Sheetal : Is Tata Honeywell seeing a good investment from bigger market participants, other than retail investors? Ramesh S Damani : Not at the current time. Typically, they perfer more liquid stocks. sk : Any other stocks u recommend - how abt ION EXCHANGE Ramesh S Damani : Interesting company, but not followed it recently. suraj : IDo you think it is worht investing in Onward Technologies? Is the management sound, the owner was founder of NASSCOM Ramesh S Damani : At this time, it would be a speculative investment. ajay : iam asking u this q from last four chat should i buy BALAJI TELE at current level???????? Ramesh S Damani : Sorry for the delay. I like the company but don't own any. It is an expensive stock so I am hoping for a correction. sk : Will u recommend to invest in TVS Ele, BEML, Gati, Max, Apollo, Kale, IT &T, Balaji Dist at current rates Ramesh S Damani : All except balaji Distilleries. I own all the others and they look good value to me. AnandBHatt : Good afternoon Sir,How are you.I had bought BP and HP at 320 and 300 repectively a few months back.Today's Jaswant Singh said that there are no differences and everyone has one common goal-DISINVESTMENT.Should I wait till the 7th for the CCD meet or should I exit before that.I know its hard to predice but I just want your opinionThanks Ramesh S Damani : I think one will get done and the other will have an IPO. To predict, I would think HPCL could get done. anaam : Sir, If management is projecting a growth of 25 %,by "if things go right" you mean they will supas their growth estimates? I think they are playing "conservative" Ramesh S Damani : Look at it over 2-3 years. The opportunity in IT-enabled services is great. baracuda : the ibm-i-flex tie up for flexcube has managed to get good business even in a tough enviorment are yu then not studying this citigroup co closely and what is a good entry level for this stock Ramesh S Damani : I just got the balance sheet. It is a product company so it is cyclical. However, I believe they are doing well. Sheetal : You still feel that PM plus Advani intervention on Sept 7/8 will not solve the HP BP disinvestment issue?? and if so what will happen to our old favourites like BEL and BEML? Ramesh S Damani : That's the problem. If HPCL, BPCL can't be done, neither can BEL and BEML. MTNL is out of the cards. stockChild : Believing market rumours about Sonata Software getting sold off, do you think its price would get appreciated ?? Is it advisable to hold it Ramesh S Damani : Don't have any idea about that. RSDfan : suggest something apart from Tata honeywll and Macmillan which is below 100? Ramesh S Damani : McDowell at Rs 46 is good. I own it. spt : Dear Mr Damani,ONGC now allowed to sell crude in US$ , is it a trigger for buying the stock Your views, Sir Ramesh S Damani : It will do well, but it won't get a discounting. BASANTMAHESHWARI : Kale is getting into BPO and is also a big service provider to the airline industry world over. Are you not bullish on it yet? Ramesh S Damani : I am trying to follow it. See if they have firm plans. AnandBHatt : Thanks a lot.Now one more tough question.Should I sell BEL bought at 155 and CONCOR at 280 before the budget in Feb because these are all disinvestment plays and everything depends on idiots like George and others psychotic people in Delhi? Ramesh S Damani : If HPCL and BPCL don't happen, these stocks will crater. So be careful. benjamingraham : beta ramesh, why are u misleading ppl in e-serve. havent ppl learnt enough lessons in 2000 and 2001 crash. that no matter how good a company is, if it is bought at a high price, it doesnt give good returns to investors. the co. may be good. but its akin to buying a 20 lac rs. merc for 1 cr. havent we seen what happened in infy and wipro , when they were bought at high prices. beta, graham uncle ki baat yaad rakhna. e-serve may do well , but its investors, beginning now, wont make much money. Ramesh S Damani : Don't mistake price for value. Infosys went from Rs 100 to Rs 1,60,000. Was Rs 1000 too high or Rs 5000 too high? Look at market cap and see if it makes sense. IT-enabled services companies market caps are modest. Berkshire Hathway in the US has a market cap of Rs 300 billion dollars. RSDfan : 3rd time) How about Tata telecom,one time it was ur favourite, at 130 it is going cheap, ur comment? Ramesh S Damani : I sold my holding and have not renentered. Tata play in telecom seems in trouble. No opinion at the current time. benjamingraham : by high price, i mean high pe. Ramesh S Damani : A year ago the e-serve stock was at Rs 150 and earning Re 1 pe. Today it earned Rs 10 and the price of Rs 150 doesn't seem expensive, does it? suraj : Max India did not move an inch in this rally, any reason Ramesh S Damani : Company is making long-term investments which are not showing up in the balance sheet. BASANTMAHESHWARI : Ramesh babu my question IT and T should I hang on or exit???? Ramesh S Damani : At this price, I would hold it. anaam : Sir, You say that you have reduced your holding in PSU & shifting in ITES. Which perticular stock you have bought from disinvestment proceeds? Ramesh S Damani : Things like Tata Honeywell. RSDfan : 6th time) Thanks, how do u c market taking shape till December and any particular scrip we should watch Ramesh S Damani : Market remains range bound. I believe tech will outperform from these levels. sagar : dear rameshji, which one you rate better of the 2 for price appreciation? rolta or polaris,or none of the 2,,please advice Ramesh S Damani : I would trust Polaris. baracuda : is india the only country in the world where the govt competes with its own people eg mahajan against sunil mittal somewhere something is wrong what say you? Ramesh S Damani : Amen. ritu : Dear Ramesh Ji, please answer this question. I bought MTNL around 131. Shd i get out of it or buy more around 105-110? won't it be a value investment around 110? Ramesh S Damani : I am confused on it too. Can't say however the price is rock bottom. ajay : in previos chat you have advised to be 20% cash is now time to be fully invested?? Ramesh S Damani : No. I would still not be fully invested. sk : u will advice to buy macmilan or Tata honeywell at current rates Ramesh S Damani : I like both and can't choose. However, in the short run Tata honeywell may do better. sunny : sir, This is 10th time I am asking you, that should we invest in IT stocks at current level or wait for some moretime. And what about Moser Baer. Ramesh S Damani : I would buy at current levels selected IT stocks. Moser Baer is not on my list. rra : Sir, how exactly is financial analysis important for 1. small investor like me 2. short term investor..i feel no point doing a thorough fundamental/technical analysis..ur inputs pl Ramesh S Damani : You do an analysis to develop conviction. It's hard to make big money without convcition. RSDfan : 6th time) sir I wish to invest 50000/-, u suggested tech will outperfom, will u pls suggest some good tech counters, or is it better to invest in sector fund? Ramesh S Damani : Read the transcripts for ideas. Be an investor and have conviction. AnandBHatt : Sir,Why do you feel ONGC wont get discounting.It is realising $15 a barrel now and will fetch $25 a barrel in 2003.ALso it trades only 5.3 times 2003 earnings.Pls advise. Ramesh S Damani : It earns money because it is a monopoly, not due to intellectual property. It is worth Rs 65000 crore plus. That is expensive. sk : Rameshji pl advice - TVSE, BEML, Max, Apollo, Kale, IT & T, Goldiam - which one do u feel is good to buy a thtese levels Ramesh S Damani : Max, Apollo look good if you are patient. I own them. benjamingraham : concor's latest annual report came last week. 400 cr of cash. amazing cash guzzling co. Ev/ebdita - 3. even if it doesnt get privatised in a hurry. isnt it a great co. to hold on Ramesh S Damani : I received it, but not read it. It will fall in symapthy if HP-BP are not privatized. shamb : wud u agree that the SEBI & FM have crashed the Indian Stock mkt; y blame UTI? Ramesh S Damani : Because tax payers are bailing them out. That is me and you. Ratan : Boss Can I invest in Satyam computers is it a safe bet Ramesh S Damani : It is too speculative to be safe. hhh : have you studed india nippon electricals, which you promised Ramesh S Damani : It is a cheap stock. However, I have not understood its growth matrix. kavita : DEAR SIR YOUR TAKE ON SCI DISINVESTMENT PRICE Ramesh S Damani : Around Rs 85. AnandBHatt : SIR,PLEASE ANSWERTHIS ONE.CAN I BUY ESERVEOR DO YOU ADVISE ME TOWAIT AFTER YOU TAKE ALOOK AT THE AGM? Ramesh S Damani : You ask tough questions. If you take a two-year view, start buying 25 per cent at current rates. Growth will restart. baracuda : most important question of the week willyu come on this show next week asit is ganesh chaturthi Ramesh S Damani : I am not sure. They will post it soon. sandeep : Dear Ramesh,(3rd time)what is your view on Mirza tanneries and Tourism finance corporation of india.please reply 4th time Ramesh S Damani : Sorry, don't follow them. paddu : as the bloating in fiscal deficit because of uti back up by govt- your comments on how the govt will balance it? Ramesh S Damani : Beats me. It is a problem. Thanks all for joining. See you next week. Bye. |