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'Markets may face the 'perfect' storm'Mumbai, January 2, 2003 : 'The big trigger could be low interest rates and Kelkar recommendations,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.SUNDEEP : Blue star infotech is emerging as a Tier-II end-to-end services company, HP 3000 migration offers good potential in the immediate the co. ois available at a mcap of Rs 185 crores and a PE of at around 10. I have bought in at around Rs 180 levels YOur take. Is it a multibagger in the making Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It is a good stock. However, I am not sure it is a multi bagger from these points. It will perform well. I am not sure how scalable they are. Rajeev : Hi Ramesh, last year (2002) we made decent money trading in PSUs like BEL, EIL and BEML. Can we spot some more which may shine this year. Apart from SBI and BEL can you think of some PSUs for this year?? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Those are the only two stocks that I am bullish on in the public sector unit sector at this time. tulsi k : GOOD EVENING DAMANI.WISH U A HAPPY N PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR 2003 N ALSO WISH U A SURE TATA HONEYWELL @500 IN 2003 Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Hello everyone. Thanks for joining. Let's start. Let me wish all our surfers a happy new year full of good health and happiness. Let's hope Tata Honeywell does well. Rajeev : Ramesh, there was some talk on CNBC that eserve may be delisted. Can I hold on to the stock for another year? Do you expect strong results for Dec quarter?? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Those are just rumours. Management has recently bought for Rs 600. That should give us some confidence. vikram : Dear Rameshbhai, do you think the sotack market will look up this year? Is there a good enough trigger -- divestment, IT, Budget, anything? ANd a very Happy New Year to you. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : The big trigger could be low interest rates and Kelkar recommendations. BASANTMAHESHWARI : KPIT and Cummins have combined to focus on global manufacturing and banking clients Merger details show that Cummins will hold 33.8 percent of total equity after 5 years post conversion of options. It is also in the ITES BPO arena. YOur take for invetsment purposes Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I am keeping an eye on it. Management has to deliver. It looks promising. famousgrouse : if every body coming on cnbc is recomending sbi then why is it not going up and if there is a buyer there has to be aseller who is selling Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Hard to say. However, buy good value and leave the rest to the market. rajesh- : Sir, in the comming budget,if there is removal of tax on copany"s dividends,long term capital gains and reduction of corporate tax which stocks will outperform in the next 6 months period. is it IT enabled stocks or other stocks like old economy? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : All stocks should perform. VIKAS : Did you sell Honeywell today ? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : No. Narayan : tell me about pantaloon cmc & eserve whether i should hold or book some profit Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I would hold on to all three. I own them all. LADOO : ARE YOU BULLISH ON PANTALOON RETAIL Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I have a small position. BASANTMAHESHWARI : Is HTMT tied down withe the aliiance and Bofors hangover. The pasing of the CAS Bill should have given it a upward jerk. Is it good to add more now as the Co. is also actively involved in the ITES BPO arena Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I think HTMT will rally in the coming year. I recently bought some. BASANTMAHESHWARI : Mastek the stoick that I often bother you with in these shows is to get into BPO as their partner Capita International is holding large BPOm orders. Any change in opinion???? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : The trouble with Mastek is that you have to cross the management credibility hurdle. They have done poorly in the past and at these evaluations, I want to be careful. smallinvestor : what is the basis of your strong conviction on tata honeywell and tata infotech, pls eloborate Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Tata Honeywell was a cheap stock at a low market cap. Tata Info is a turn around candidate going into business process outscourcing, which I like. ankeet : sir,there are still stocks like paper products,sesa goa,ici,alsthom power,etc has not yet participated in this rally. have you looked into these midcaped stocks? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : ICI, paper products look good Aniruddha : Dear Ramesh bhai, what kind of impact do you see ont he stock market from 1) Kelkar proposals and 2) low interest rates? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Both are bullish. In fact, we could be heading for the financial equivalent of the perfect storm due to these reasons. LADOO : pantaloon management has difficulities for raising money form institutions due to there agressive approach in film productions , is it true Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I believe they are over the hurdle. baracuda : are yu too much worried about the new jersy bill and the ban on free telemarketing.do yu expect this to spread and make life difficult for bpocos Ramesh Shrichand Damani : No, I don't. Not about New Jersey. Tele marketing bill will affect outbound centres. rajesh- : Sir, IT& T is going up? is there any news on the counter? what will you advice, hold or exit Ramesh Shrichand Damani : No new news. Watch it carefully. I own some. rishi : What is your take on the bigwigs like Satyam Infy and Wipro. Is there some upside Ramesh Shrichand Damani : They should do well in the new year. smallinvestor : lately what is ur opinion on ur old favourites like goldiam, tata tele and ultramarine Ramesh Shrichand Damani : They look okay at current rates, especailly Goldiam and Ultra. baracuda : who are the outboundcentres in india listed on the stock exchange Ramesh Shrichand Damani : IT&T to some extent. Ahmedabadguy : Damaniji what are the plans for tonight's big bash??any suggession on them? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I am getting too old for it. I'll probably stay at home. ANAND K : sir, gold is at its peak in 6 year, could we expect a major movement in TITAN ? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Not really. The link is superfluous. rajesh- : If there is a war of usa vs iraq how will IT enabled cos. effected, fundamentally, Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Not at all if it is in the short-run. BASANTMAHESHWARI : Ramesh babu anything that you can guide us on Hexaware? Technically it looks on a strong wicket as it gains more then it loses in each reaction Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I am not comfortable with management. investor : Sir in pharma movemnt has started...Any new kids on the block for 2003?? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Suven, Ipca are are moving well. Padma : Sir, my husband passed away in April. He left me some money and a house. However, his pension is not enough to cover my and my two daughter’s expenses. Could you advice me on how to approach the stock market? OR should I at all venture into it? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Please accept my sympathies on the sad news. Do you work and have an independent source of income? If not, put only a small amount in equities. Ultimately money will grow only in equities to meet your needs. However, invest very very carefully. Good luck. tulsee : should one wait for the iraq crisis to settle down before making fresh purchases Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Iraq worries me, but we can't quantify the risk realistically. Hence I am buying. baracuda : the bond market has given 25% last month there is a new years praty going on there do yu ever track that market and what are yur views on large inflows of dolars into the country finding its way into the bond market as the dollar gets weaker. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It is happening. Foreign direct investment should increase in India, especially in infrastructure. The rupee has bottomed out and will rise against the dollar. mantis : what is your view on interest rate movement and its impact on stocks during the next 1-2 years Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Interest rate is headed down. Stocks are headed higher. rajesh- : out of Tata honey, Tata infotech, E-serve, Geometric, Mcdowell please give your order of preference. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Mcdowell is the high potential return. The rest are well discovered. All of them are in ITES, except Mcdowell. Rajeev : How is Tata Tea looking - do you consider it to be a good investment to give stability to one's portfolio? Now that commodities are expected to do well, can I stay invested? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It makes sense. ANAND K : sir pantaloon is doing well in retail front, TRENT is almost in the same business.shold one convert trent into Pantaloon.... your opinion ......? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Pantaloon is moving due to Big Bazaar, not due to Pantaloon retail. BASANTMAHESHWARI : ALchemy has aprice target of RS 90 on PANtaloon have you seen the report? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : No, but i agree with the outcome. Ahmedabadguy : Sir have you looked at another liquor stock Radico Khaitan..? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It is a cheap stock and i own some correiageorge1 : I have Rs 100,000 to invest what do u have to say about global tele system shares Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Not my favourite company. BIG BULL : SIRSIR WORLD ECONOMY IS NOT IN GOOD SHAPE AS PER REPORTS IN THE MEDIA , SHOULD WE HOLD BACK OUR INVETSMENTS TILL THE CLOUDS ARE CLEAR Ramesh Shrichand Damani : No. By the time they are clear, the market will have risen. balu : Rameshji, Which are the stocks one must avoid, i mean the speculative variety ones? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Anything whose business or valuation you don't understand. Do some homework and have some conviction. BASANTMAHESHWARI : The guy from ENAM who sat with you on Taking stocks was phenomenal. His data crunching abilities was par excellenec. especially the ones relating to India's gold consumption and annual savings. Convey my congratulations to him Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Thanks I will. He is a good friend. VIKAS : PLEASE I AM ASKING AGAIN YOUR VIEW ON TVS-E , INFOTECH ENTERPRISES Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Both look good at the current time. Rajeev : The white liquor market seems to be doing very well. Bacardi, Vodka etc. Is McDowell got a significant presence in this at all? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Yes they do. Ahmedabadguy : Sir is this the right prises to add small quantity in Gati and Macmilan ?? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Sure thing. I still own them. jayaraman : How about buying ongc shares? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Its market cap is too large for me. lolobabay : Ramesh S Damani asks investors to keep off FMCG scrips. He feels that HLL may drop below Rs 200 levels, as for the markets size does not matter, growth does. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Where did you read that? smallinvestor : RESPECTED RAMESHJI, pls give me your 5 picks for next year. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : No new picks. You have my old ideas. No point repeating them. mad : WHAT ABOUT STOCK LIKE BURROUGHS (BURR.BO) do you think one so get now for value.. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : They are good value. shenoyv : Damaniji, if the war occurs and the oil prices go up-- only ONGC is the Indian company that is benifited- isnt it? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : The company is expensive market cap wise. Remember that. Ahmedabadguy : Sir do you like Siemens to perform well in coming days? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Looks promising. kumarswamy : what about hughes software? have you bought Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I am taking another look at it. Will let you know next week. tulsee : can i replace hll with mc dowell Ramesh Shrichand Damani : No. HLL is blue chip, Mcdowell is risky. abhi : sir, what is your forecast regarding reliance`s foray into telecom ,recently and how will it affect the capital market Ramesh Shrichand Damani : The lauch was impressive. However, it remains to be seen if the upfront pricing will work. FMCG companies have not been able to do that. reshma : What about Lupin Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Good trading idea. I own some. rajesh- : your advice on tata infotech? it is moving very fast. one should wait for correction or enter at current levels Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Wait for correction. ravikrishnan : Dear Sir, What is the future of birla erricson & IPCA Lab? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Ipca Labs looks okay. reshma : What about I-Flex Ramesh Shrichand Damani : The company is looking strong. I bought a small quantity. ausalim : any meaning in holding silverline Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Not in my opinion. smartinv : Ramesh,Could u throw some light on revenue prospects for tata info.Can i invest at these levels?Will appreciate ur response. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : They recently bought 40 per cent of Sitle India. Sitel India, in my estimate has 1500 people and about Rs 125 crore revenue. This is the ITES business, the main business employs 3500 people but need to turn around. lolobabay : Rameshji, What do you think about Rolta India? Should webuy now? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Not bullish on it. Sridar : How much do you recommend for a Middle class person to invest in Stocks??? inTerms of Percentage to his salary??? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Maybe 10-15% at least for it to be meaningful. That is the way you get choices in life. BornLoser : by when do u think sensex will touch 3700 Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It has a shot if Kelkar Panel recomendation is accepted. BASANTMAHESHWARI : I should not be writing this but normal and conventional Investment wisdom states that one should not hold more then 10 to 12 stocks but it appears that you hold far too many. why this paradox?? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Good point. My core holdings are10-12. The rest I hold is to get an idea, trade and keep an eye. kiran : Canara bank is putting writeups all over hyd statingthe offer was over subscribed - thanks. Do u think canbank is reliable orwould it settle down to a price level it deserves. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I prefer State Bank of India in the PSU basket. However, a lot of people are exited by this stock. Gulshan : Rameshji what r ur views on the forthcomming budget? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Bullish because of Kelkar. smartinv : Sir,is it better to invest in quality stock like e-serve instead of tatainfo.Do investors get benifited if it de-lists(rumours). Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Generally it is. They benefit if it gets delisted at a high price like Syngenta. VIKAS : BEFORE U LEAVE WE WANT TO KNOW WHAT ARE YOU BUYING TOMORROW Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I have not thought about it. All of you have a safe New Year and propserous 2003. Bye and thanks. |