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January 31, 2002
Stock Talk

'Tech will be in trouble'

'Market is rewarding companies with growth and visibility. Old economy stocks will tend to do better,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.

Rajiv : Hi Ramesh. How is ITC looking to you for trading - It is available below 700. Any positives expected for the industry in this budget??
Ramesh S Damani : Hello everyone thanks for joining. Let's start. ITC is a good bet at current level. Tobacco never has pleasant surprises in the budget, only negative ones.

MOHAN : Hai DAMANI ! What is your comment on Hinduja TMT latest results? at current price any buying for longterm. and Mindteck is good bet?
Ramesh S Damani : I was happy with the results of HTMT. However Net margins at above 65% are too rich to be sustained. A good long- term bet. Mindteck looks good. I own both stocks.

MOHAN : Hinduja TMT main bussiness is call centres. What is the business of call centres (meaning).
Ramesh S Damani : Customers call with problems(A/c statement, wrong dr) etc and the operator solves the problem. Like calling your credit card company. It is a good business.

aes : at wat price do you think bharti will finally open on the exchanges? wat is ur opinion of hte stock?
Ramesh S Damani : I would prefer to buy it on listing. It's too early for retail to get into.

rama : wat is your opinion of the mid-day stock? ur recommendation on it?
Ramesh S Damani : Wait till FDI is allowed in print media.

Ayan Shah : Mr. Damani Good afternoon..As we come closer to end of the result season.where you see the market moving?? Last time you said lookout for the Indian companies after Jan. 10( Infy reult date) and You were dead right..What is your comment after Rel. result date??
Ramesh S Damani : Tech will be in trouble. Market is rewarding companies with growth and visibility. Also, old economy will tend to do better. IT will be a stock pickers market.

Ayan Shah : Mr. Damani...After today's result of BEl ( T.O. up around 28-29% and N.P. up by 9%..Also prise have come down to around 106 rs..when you think Investor should enter the stock again?? ( I have sold them around 119-125 band)
Ramesh S Damani : I would.

Ayan Shah : BEML has retraced to around 25 rs. after shooting from 20 to 30 in just a week time..You still own them or booked profit??Also around 25 You advise to buy the stock??
Ramesh S Damani : I did book some. I would wait a little while before buying more.

alok : yr comments on Citicorp results ramesh?
Ramesh S Damani : Love the growth numbers they put up. Next year they will be concentrating on the bottom line. Looks good. I still own it.

dinesh : what is your views on balaji, tips, sri adikari,tv18 and lupin
Ramesh S Damani : Most media stocks look good, but I would still wait before buying. Revenue stream is still not predictable.

investor : But Ramesh , though the Margins of Hinduja TMT is very good but the same is not yet reflected in the Share Price. Do you feel at current price one should buy the stock. What is your target price in 4-5 months view.
Ramesh S Damani : Yes. But 67 per cent net margins are not sustainable. Trust me on that. I would sell my house to buy it if it were sustainable.

Shanti : I am dissapointed with L&Ts performance. Can I hold for some price appreciation till budget?
Ramesh S Damani : It's hard to say. I would hold on though.

prita : are you happy with bharat electronics results?
Ramesh S Damani : Not seen the whole results. Fourth quarter results are the best for BEL

Ayan Shah : Mr. Damani last time we talked about Tata Tea as a good contrarian buy though Tea prises are poor and will have to wait for some more time to be rewarded..Now after the poor q3 result and poor outlook for the q4 by the management..what is your view on the stock and around what level you advise to buy for the worthwhile longterm investment..
Ramesh S Damani : At current rates, it looks okay. Remember its market cap is Rs 6 billion. That is cheap.

alokr : what is recommendation on hinduja tmt at current price of 104, one should hold, buy more or book profit?
Ramesh S Damani : I would hold.

ritukumar : what is your opinion about the world economic forum?
Ramesh S Damani : Lots of talk, little action.

alokr : aren't you worried abt Citicorp's wafer-thin npm, it's almost around 5 percent, while most of the other companies in the it-enabled services enjoy much better margins?
Ramesh S Damani : Yes. But E-serve is known PSU. They know how to earn a buck. Tax and infrastructure spends are high. I believe a bottom line will follow.

dollar : so what are you reading these days mr damani? have u read abhay mehta's power play.. about enron?
Ramesh S Damani : Nope. It's been quiet. Just watching companies studying results.

Shanti : When FIIs come in (hopefully soon) do you expect a good rise in Dr Reddys price? How's the prospects of this company?
Ramesh S Damani : I am favourably inclined towards it. I own some.

Ayan Shah : Arond what level you advise friends over here to buy Hinduja if they haven't baught it already??
Ramesh S Damani : In the low 96. At high around Rs 105 band.

investor : Market is listless and not givin any direction. Budget time is coming. What do u feel which way the market should move
Ramesh S Damani : It will be a stock pickers market. Averages may remain dull for the next 2 weeks.

sun : what do you expect from ALAN gREEN SPAN 'S FED meeting today, tomorrow
Ramesh S Damani : No change in interest rates.

Shanti : With the APM dismantling will BPL be a good investment at 217
Ramesh S Damani : Yes it would.

investor : What are your recommendation about Kale consultant
Ramesh S Damani : Still trying to study it.

Ayan Shah : Mr. Damaniji have you spotted some starsfrom the past who are not yet got noticed but hopefully will be sooner or later after looking at current result spree...
Ramesh S Damani : I am waiting for SBI results anxiously. Low interest rates are going to give them a big boost.

investor : It means one should be stock choosy atleast for the 2 weeks around - any bargain buying in this market
Ramesh S Damani : Nothing other than the stocks I have recommended in the past.

sun : Dear Damani, your views on visual soft at current level, is it an ITES,BPO?
Ramesh S Damani : It has moved from product to services.

investor : It is very difficult small investors to predict , only by the grace of persons like u we make some good bucks. I always found your recommendations excellent. Thanx
Ramesh S Damani : That is kind of you to say. Thanks for the good words.

Shanti : Do you expect good results from Apollo Hospitals?
Ramesh S Damani : Results have been flat. However it is a good story.

investor : What is your take on UB & Mc. Dowell
Ramesh S Damani : I was disappointed in the UB deal.

alokr : what do you find so attractive in Bharat Earthmover, the company is almost slipping into losses?
Ramesh S Damani : Its market cap of Rs 600 million and its potential for disinvestment. Without that it is a struggle.

hsj : sir,do you think government will disinvest beml at 150 as reported by et?
Ramesh S Damani : I have no news about it.

sun : do you think it is worth investing now in IT considering US economy is stabilising
Ramesh S Damani : Capital spending on IT is not picking up.

investor : your take on Mc. Dowell
Ramesh S Damani : I sold some because of bad deal for UB.

Ayan Shah : Have you looked at SCI recently???How it looks??
Ramesh S Damani : Shipping is doing badly. Wait for divestment.

investor : suppose a investor has Rs. 1lac to invest - how and in which stock he should spend considering the investor as yourself
Ramesh S Damani : 40 per cent in IT-enabled, 20 per cent regular, tech 20 per cent, PSU 20 per cent special situations.

sun : having you said that CAP spending in IT spending is not picking up, what do you specifically advise for equity investment in IT scrips
Ramesh S Damani : Look at IT-enabled.

alokr : yr take on Concor? Yr friend Rakesh J is extremely bullish on it!
Ramesh S Damani : I like it too.

investor : your call on Alsthom Power and VDO India
Ramesh S Damani : Altsom Power looks good. VDO India, I own but but am disappointed by the results.

sun : You have been saying ITES part of Kale is liked by you and at the same time you keep doing research , what do you propose to do in Kale?
Ramesh S Damani : I need to arrange a visit. Also I would like to see 2-3 quarter resutls. I am a patient man.

ConcernedInvestor : Rameshbhai, how does Geometric, Kale and E-serve look for a six month horizon?
Ramesh S Damani : Geometric and E-serve look good for one year. Kale jury is out.

alokr : yr take on Compudyne Winfosystems at current prices? do u like the stock?
Ramesh S Damani : I have just started looking at it.

ConcernedInvestor : Rameshbhai, do you think interest rates will dip in April?
Ramesh S Damani : Unlikely.

sun : whether Visual soft is into BPO, IT ENABLED business
Ramesh S Damani : Not that that I know of.

alokr : any stocks u love to own in the banking sector? yr views on Corporation bank?
Ramesh S Damani : Looks okay and SBI.

investor : your call on Concor and CRISIL - and at what price we should enter
Ramesh S Damani : Both okay at current levels. I like both of them.

Ayan Shah : In It enabled arena e-serve, geometric and Hinduja tmt..any other I missed????
Ramesh S Damani : Infotech Enterprises.

alokr : don't u think that It-enabled services are more of like dealing in commodities? i mean there is not much scope of value-addition and this makes most of the companies run on thin margins like Citicorp?
Ramesh S Damani : That would be a mistaken assumption. 10-15 per cent net margins are not shabby.

Shanti : Would you agree that we are in a nascent stage of a bull market?
Ramesh S Damani : We could be.

ConcernedInvestor : Rameshbhai, Bharati IPO may be lukewarm. I-flex, TCS, etc. may be better but if interest rates don't dip, do you see any triggers at all in this market? Any high hopes from budget?
Ramesh S Damani : Market will resume when growth comes back to tech.

bearishguy : pls comment on NIIT for long term say 18 months of time from now
Ramesh S Damani : Probably do better.

loser : ramesh ji, what is your take on tips industries, talks about placement to global media major?
Ramesh S Damani : I have heard the same rumours.

bearishguy : NOT REPLYING MY ANSWERS WHY
Ramesh S Damani : Not received your questions.

techbull : Mr. Ramesh, you seem to be a Tech Bull, like me! But market is bearish on Tech :-(
Ramesh S Damani : I am an IT-Enabled bull.

raju : Mr. Ramesh what is the prospect of Dr.Reddy's lab in the future?? pls. advice me??
Ramesh S Damani : I think it is good.

Anand : could you give any stocks for the medium term sir. whats your take on western hatcheries. the company pays 40% dividend and is the leading player in that industry. why it is languishing at 31.
Ramesh S Damani : Look at the IT-enabled sector. W Hatch is a good bet. How fast are they growing?

raju : pls. give ur views on LIC Hsg. and Tata Telecom
Ramesh S Damani : Both look okay.

Rajiv Mehta : Infotek Enterprise may be one of yr favorite script vol is very low but the prizes have zoomed from 100-450 what is yr opinion on this
Ramesh S Damani : At these prices, I prefer E-Serve

govi : can we expect a pre budget bull run this time?
Ramesh S Damani : It always seems to happen. We could see one again.

investor : Rate the following cos as per your call - E-serve,Geometric,Hinduja & Infotech
Ramesh S Damani : That's the right order.

loser : what is your view on kpit systems, lic housing,
Ramesh S Damani : I am selling KPIT. LIC Housing looks okay.

spmodak : Rameshji, is there any future in investing in companies working on knowledge management?
Ramesh S Damani : Definitely. That is what keeps me awake at night. I have digital dreams. Thanks all for joining. See you next week.

Join the Ramesh S Damani chat every Tuesday at 1600 IST.

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