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'Another bull run will depend on FII investment''There is no liquidity on the domestic front. If Bush visits India, US money would flow in,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Hello everybody and thanks for joining in. Lets start. KALYANARAMAN : Most of the banks (including State Bank of India) are running at a loss, if the int. income on govt.securities (which is a book entry, since govt pays int by additional borrowing without earning anything). Added to this is understating of NPAs in a big way (which has been commented by CRISIL + newspaper reports )+ qualifiying of balance sheet by auditors that they are not sure of the profit, since effect of non-reconciliation of entries is unknown to them. In this scenario,do you justify SBI + other bank shares trading above par ? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : You know more of banking than I do. However recently a bank in Mexico was sold to Citibank USA for US $12.5 billion. If holding is sold it could be attractive. can : Do you see any any ray of hope in Prudential ICICI Tech fund, Kothari Internet Opp Fund & Sun F&C Emerging tech fund Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Hard to see a big future. Managers became too careless investing in AOT ( Any old thing) rnathan : Could you please tell me about Cyberspace Infosys Ltd. as I am not able to get any information about the company. I am also a shareholder of the said company. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It seems to be a bubble stock. I dont have any information on it. trepidity : Will this market rise further? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Market will rise or fall based on FII flows. They have been strongly positive. solon : what do you think of BSES? why did it go up so much today? does it still have potential? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Maybe Reliance was increasing its stake? sanjay : dear mr. ramesh , how r u. last week you suggested vsnl and ibp because of disinvestment. what about mtnl, gail and hpcl Ramesh Shrichand Damani : they are not on the fast track.Take a look at CMC. I have some of those shares. CMC should be done by August. ACER : how do u compare indian stock market to rest of world? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Indian stock markets take cue from Nasdaq. In terms of technology and investor base, we are on par with global standards. buller : do you have a buy list now MR DAMANI? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I occasionally recommend stocks I like. You can see previous transcripts KR : Is there any truth in Tata Infotech-TCS merger? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : They keep denying it. But logic is there. ramchand : I beleive UTI is in trouble now invested in ULIP, will there be any problem? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : UTI is a big institution. However, performance has not been satisfactory in my opinion kjghgg : What will replace the arbitrage between bse and nse? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Maybe between cash and futures market. mgosar : what do you think about psu stocks? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : They are great values, good dividend. Buy the disinvestment candidates investor : what is your view on liquidity in the indian markets after 2nd July? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It's going to be missing. Market will be brittle and will not be able to absorb a sell off without severe price damage. solon : Please tell us something about options Mr Damani. Will they be European or American? What will be the duration? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : This is not the forum. However options in brief is a right, but not an obligation to buy ndeepn : sir what do u think about balaji tele? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Ekta Kapoor and hence Balaji is a force to reckon with. rajkishore : Dear Ramesh Damani, Why is it that in the name of investor protection that Sebi imposes so many irrelevant guidelines which are not practical at all. For example, SEBI makes it mandatory for the members to take margins from its clients, whereas it is the other way out when you trade in this highly competetive market. While the member fullfills their obligation why do they wish to impose such an guideline? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I agree with you. If they consult the traders and have strict enforcement rather then impractical laws, we would be better off. raach : What is your outlook on silverline and zee telefilms? Will they cross 250 in the next one month? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Zee looks better than Silverline. chandresh : whats your take on Global telesystems Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I am not too enthusiastic about it. raghu_kannoli : MR. DAMANI, PLS TELL ME ABOUT YOUR VIEWS ON PAAM PHARMA & PAAM DRUGS PLS....... Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I am sorry I do not follow this. raach : Will Satyam ever reach its high of Rs 7000? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : The odds look poor. Though ITC is much higher than its1992 peak. However Satyam looks a tough bet to be 7000. rahul : Will index future or individual stock option be better than mutual fund investment? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : They are not comparable. Derivatives are for hedging and speculation. Funds are for investment. Suren : Damaniji, all the major IT companiy shares have gone down so much, there is only hope that after 4-5 months the situation will improve- what do you say about this? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Another bull run will depend on FII investment. No liquidity on the domestic front. If Bush visits India, US Money would flow in. Suren : Sir, Will Mr.Musharaff's visit to India in early July have any effect on the market? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : The road to peace is torturous. If trade resumes, companies likeTelco, Tata Tea and Sesa Goa would benefit. However it will take time. prince : how about Engineers India Ltd ?? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It is a good disinvestment candidate.May be a good one time dividend. I own some. buzz : when will there be a rebound in the US economy? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : The economy is at zero growth. It will take time to grow again. rajkishore : Dear ramesh it is more important that SEBI makes it more investor friendly rather than impose a lot of regulations .More emphases should be given to investors education rather than investors protection.As it is proved that allthough SEBI is investigating Stock Scam etc they will finally fix some people after some time everybody will forget.Whereas they will not make back for the losses suffered by these investors .Hence I wish to suggest u to take up the matter at a proper fora for such a solution where they educate the investors and make them equally responsible for their own rights.SEBI should make it mandatory for the investors also to lodge a complaint with the authorities within a resonable time. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : You have some good suggestions.However I am not the appropriate person to act on it. It would take a MP or Finance Minister to frame fair regulations. Brokers are not currently being heard. abc : Mr Damani now who is the SEBI chairman Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Shri D R Mehta Narayan : With rolling settlement coming in from July 2 how will the market react to it ? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : The adjustment will be painful. abc : which is the largest mutual fund in india? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : By far UTI. Among private players, Morgan Stanley. Maximus : Ramesh , I asked u whether bio tech stocks will lead the exchange. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Not enough listed companies. I can only think of Panacea Biotec. vinay : Any Stock you recommend having the potential to double in a years time. And should it be bought at the current price. Any sector something like the Software which very few identified in time. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I like IT Enabled. This is going to be big in a few years. rhari : Ramesh how long will the current rally sustain? At what levels do you think one can sell if they want to recover some money? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I think we may be close to a technical top in the next few days. kumarraj : Hello Ramesh, whats your outlook about NSE/BSE by this year end? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Volumes will shrink. BSE may be worst hit. gm : advise on investing in L&T Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Lets wait for the results and disinvestment of cement. It looks good value to me. gm : Would like to know for investing in Reliance Petroleum for 1 year range. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It's a fairly expensive stock.The market cap is something like Rs 25,000 crores. rahul : DEAR SIR PLS UPDATE US WHETHER IT IS PRU-ICICI OR MORGAN Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I am not sure myself. Sorry. Sudhir : Will monsoon negate the effect of US slowdown on india Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Not for the tech sector. Suganeetm : Good Evening Mr. Damani, What is the future of Timex and Bata India ? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Bata has been a big disappointment. Evey few years it fails. I am not following Timex. vimsin : Is it not a good idea for cash rich PSUs to pay out the cash on their books by way of a hefty dividend? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It is. Engineers, a stock I own is a good example. deepak : hi, Ramesh can u tell me what u think of index futures trading?? do u expext volumes to pick up now that badla is closed? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It should. The early evidence is discouraging. The rules related to margin and others must be released. At this volume we have no risk to the system. Let people learn it without stiff measures. ravindrap : Rameshji, Good evening. I have some shares which i bought in Normal System. Do I need to sell them before Rolling system implementation? Can you please clarify Ramesh Shrichand Damani : What is the name of the company? aganth : sir as joined just will us slow down of it market effect indian export and domestic market and upto which xtent? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Yes it will. US spending is the economic driver. Especially infotech. manish_k_s : mr. damani, what is the reason for sharp change in market even now? Today itself, just after 3pm there is a sharp up and down in market,Does market still in hands of few brokers? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Markets always behave like that.They tend to move sharply. gm : Your comments on the Sugar Industry. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It is too regulated an low tech. Does not interest me. ritika : which is the largest broker in India today Ramesh Shrichand Damani : My guess it would be a FII like Credit Lyonnais or DSP Merill. Manish : The markets have picked up in volume term, Rs1900 + traded volume, whereas the intra-day movements have narrowed down. What does that implicates? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It is a good sign. Market is maturing. However July 2nd is the big test. Sudhir : Tech stocks?????? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Look for companies that can grow 40-50 per cent and have a valuable franchise. I have given names on previous chats. Manish : We have seen some of the Big FIIs taking a short-term bet on the market. What that reveals for small/general investors? Even LIC / GIC have stated to revisit their portfolio and make active profits? What does that reveal for general investors? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Domestic players are less confident. FIIs are the only players. However, after July 2, we will see a brittle market and FII's will howl. venks : How is it that a Companiy's performance doesn't reflect on their share values??? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Remember what Buffett says. Short run stocks are popularity contests. In the long run, they are a voting machine. Value will surface. Maulik : Hi, what do you feel about Nalco? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Chemicals or Alumunium. venkat : Mr. Damani. I happened to read the report about the FII operations that led to a crash. I thought they wrote report like LKG / UKG students saying that they reduced prices by selling huge quantities. Isn't that a natural phenomenon? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I agree with you. That is what selling does. I am not sure what the surprise was. Suganeetm : Dear sir, What do you think about buyback of their shares of the MNC. Is this good time to exit for the small investor. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Yes, in the short-term. I the long run, it means less attractive shares to choose from. Its like having vada pav every day. No choices. armsravi : please tell me about online trading and how to enter into it Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Visit icicidirect.com or hometrade.com. sudimudi : Dear Ramesh, Some cos. who are also NSE dealers in many towns are operating profitably but are not announcing any dividends? This is even after the three year period. Is it okay? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Dividend is up to management. Shareholders can't put it to vote.They can raise the point at AGMs. BNJha : Is the downfall in technology stocks fully due to industry or the fund managers have also added their establishment cost to the low NAV of these stocks? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Good observation. Wonder if the tail wags the dog? Sudhir : China will dump goods in Indian markets? What do you say? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Consumers will win big time. We should be building a hi-tech economy. IT requires power and telecom. def : which is the INDIAN largest broker Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Credit Lyonais, I think, dks777 : WHAT DO YU THINK OF PRESENT SITUATION OF INDIAN STOCK MARKETS???/DOES THE FUTURE LOOK BLEAK AS USUAL??? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Not as usual, but it does look rough for the balance of the year. velu : sir , for how long the economic slown down at US of A is expected? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Recessions take time to finish. Maybe another 12-18 months. AAA : PLZ TELL ABT AFTEK Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I am not very impressed by it. venkat : Mr. Damani..I am a trifle bearish on Tech stocks due to 1. Recessionary trends in the US.2. growing withdrawls from major funds by investors & mainly due to the US situation..what's ur opinion ?? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I agree. Sales of consumer durables like PC and electronic items fell by 9%. Wow! sudimudi : Dear Ramesh, How will Tatapower and Tisco perform in near future (1 to 3 months) Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Tata power excites me. Not Tisco.Globally, steel is in a huge slump. rhari : Ramesh what's the technical top in the current rally according to you? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Low 4000 on the sensex vinay : PLEASE NAME 2 STOCKS IN THE IT ENABLED INDUSTRY Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I have said this many times.I own and like ESERVE from a 2 year perspective. That should get you started Maximus : Which you think has good fund managers among MFs? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I like Bharat Shah among the domestic bunch. dks777 : PLS TELL ME ALSO ABOUT CURRENT CRISIS IN SEBI????AND DOES OPTION TRADING HAVE A BRIGHT FUTURE IN INDIA?R PEOPLE WILLING TO BE EDUCATED ON THIS SUBJECT?I PERSONALLY THINK ITS BETTTER THAN SHARES!!! Ramesh Shrichand Damani : We should give it our best shot. However, I think it will have a slow start. ppp : is your current advice still to go for Index funds? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : We still see no clear themes. An index is best in periods like this. vgm : are u selective in answering Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Yes. I like interesting questions and those that don't just ask what to buy. Maximus : That was a good joke. but can i invest on Bharat Shah? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Bharat Shah is a fund manager at Birla. No joke. ppp : Should we invest in debt schemes of mutual funds currently, rather than equity? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Or try an index fund if you wish toremain in equity dks777 : DO YU FEEL OPTION WRITING IS A SMALL INVETORS GAME?WHEN THE MONEY IS IN OPTION WRITING????????? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : No. The risk is too great inwriting options rahul : dear damani mr bharat shah has lost my money in birla advantage fund and other schemes. whyyyyyyyyy ???????? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Everyone has. A rising tide lifts all ships and vice versa. dks777 : THEN WHO WILL MAKE MONEY, WHEN YU SAY THAT OPTION WRITING IS NOT A SMALL INVESTORS GAME?!!!! Ramesh Shrichand Damani : The big cats. They have cheap money and will know how to price these things. Typically, options is a zero sum game. Nine out of 10 people trading options loose money. That is the US experience I believe abc : The best way not to lose money is that keep the money in the bank what do you say rameshji Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Then inflation will win. Long-term equity remains the best option. However approach it seriously and be disciplined. monkey : dear mr. damani, how r u, last week u suggest vsnl , ibp because disinvestment, what about mtnl, gail, hpcl and ongc Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Not at the current time. Look for disinvestment candidates. Maximus : Will EVER BSE Behave Rationally? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Markets are not rational. Underline that. Kavita : MR RAMESH WHY DONT U ANSWER ME? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Kavita this is the net. No limitations. Remember multi tasking. velu : sir , the economic slowdown at US of A will make the shares of big IT players like wipro to go down? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It already has. A large part is discounted. abc : Mr Damani what you feel about Monkey Man nonsense? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Hey Anil Kapoor was shooting in Delhi. Did you know. (Just joking) chet : one small quest mr. damani what is your view on the latest development in the DOW and recent article in forbes which say DOW to touch 5200 Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Richard Russell of Dow Letters suggests 2500 on the dow. See it in Barrons.com under archives. venkat : Just another wee bit inquisitive question. I always thought you would be a good bear...any comments? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Pray why ?I have made my money being long. yogeshb : what is your view on vakarangee Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Avoid it. abc : Mr Rameshji our people due to over anxious they invest and they start blaming what is your opinion Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Pretty much. I say Caveat Emptor. Let the buyer beware. It's your money. You be careful. chet : What is your view on that sir. Do u see that US has passed the so called recession and the economy is on the track.? I read that article. thanks Ramesh Shrichand Damani : No. Recessions require time.Bubbles don't end in 2-3 year lows. They end in 15 year lows. Look at the Gold Market, AG comm market, Nikkei. vinay : WHERE CAN I GET THE DETAILS OF YOUR EARLIER CHATS IN WHICH YOU HAVE MADE RECOMMENDATIONS ELSE PLEASE LET ME KNOW A FEW. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Look through the transcripts at rediff.com BNJha : I have invested a lot through MFs in TECH. Need your advise at this moment? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It's time to book some losses and maybe transfer to a index fund. dennis : Mr.Damani, do u think Nasdaq in next 12 months could touch 3000. Please give a straight answer. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I would be surprised. It would be hard to get past 2800. 5000 may not be seen for 5 years. velu : sir , what advice would you like to give for those whose visa`s are cancelled due to economic slow down at US of A? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Tech supports innovation. Build a tech product in your garage. Be an entrepreneur. Maximus : Mr.Damani, tell me what stocks u hold, let me follow u Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Sorry but I would like to keep that private. I do share my ideas from time to time. So just log in chet : but sir, in the US thay are very dynamic and they always try hard to change there fortune fast so this recession may not last long like in JAPAN or in the gold Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Correct. But 12 months is still a short time. Excesses are excesses. BNJha : Will TECH funds see a turnaround and by what time? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Not in the near future, Thanks for joining in. See you next week Join the Ramesh S Damani chat every Tuesday at 1600 IST. ALSO SEE:
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