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THE CHAT ROOMS
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'I am not optimistic on the market''The market is in a narrow trading range and it is hard to make money in futures,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.Falgunee : Hi Rameshbhai Kem cho tame? Do u feel Sensex will touch 3000 levels and why if so? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Hello everyone thanks for joining in. Let's start. Market could touch 3000. Lack of speculative volume is holding the market. But any shock could break it. solon : What will happen today in the US? If there is a rate cut, will it benefit Indian stock market? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Market is expecting a 25 basis point cut. Maybe 50. However it is well discounted. tapan : If the dollar weakens against European countries, will rupee become stronger vs dollar? How will it affect the Indian software industry? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : the rupee is going to weaken. It is not going to go up. A financial crisis implies a weak rupee. Flguniparikh : Do u fell Infosys will touch 2500 and Satyam 125 Ramesh bhai? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : it could if growth slows down from 30% plus to 15-20%. KALYANARAMAN : In continuation of your earlier replies--japan,china etc..are also having bad bank loan problems...but our country is a unique case wherein the central govt.,state govts.,electricity boards,many PSUs, many (if not all ) banks (if int.income on recapitalisation bonds/int.on govt.securities are excluded), are bankrupt...do you still see a ray of hope in our economy,which is clearly heading to a debt trap and one by one new financial institutions (the latest one -centurion bank) having problems ? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : the quality of Indian FIs is distressing to say the least. It keeps me up at night. dips : mr damani have you read edwin lefevre's reminiscences of a stock operator? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I have, it is one of my favourite books. Strongly recommend it. Falguni : What is ur advice to small investor in the present scenario ? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : buy for the long term and with conviction. Avoid tips and rumours for quick bucks. KALYANARAMAN : i have a basic, fundamental doubt.. are the product lines of the companies which form part of nasdaq index and the product of infosys,wipro etc...similar..2-if nasdaq goes to (say) 1200,will it definitely affect our software shares ? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : not correct. infy supplies code to Nortel which is in the Nasdaq. However they do bread and butter coding. they will survive a downturn better. sapna : are there any good value stocks now? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : i own some already and was impressed by the presentation made by United Breweries. It is a good stock at Rs 90/- KALYANARAMAN : you mean infy will survive a downturn better or nortel? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : i think infy. tapan : What do you think of the pharma rally? Will it continue and are there any good stocks where one can invest? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : i dont follow pharma. Dr Reddy on price action looks good. Ketanparekh : At what price shud I enter RIL RPL and Reliance Capiteal resp? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I would avoid them at the current time. UTI's holding is creating a overhead on these stocks. They are vulnerable chat : any other books you recommend? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : try Being Digital by Nicholas Negroponte. Lots of stock market books. Maybe one day I will give the list to rediff. Ketanparekh : Which Sensex futures shud I buy Ramesh? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Market is in a narrow trading range. Hard to make money in futures. Also I am not optimistic on the market. KD : IBP appears to be a great bet to me. With near debt free status (400 cr. to come in from oil pool) should double the mkt. cap. from present level. Again the divestment should happen in the next 3 months and aggressive bidding should take place.Your views Ramesh Shrichand Damani : if govt ever does it, sure. However they keep dragging their feet. KALYANARAMAN : if uti has to survive, markets have to go up...though the brokers wanted badla to continue, govt. abolished badla/albm...what has the govt.achieved by going against the wishes of the broking community, who are also very important in any country ? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : the govt is tainting the entire financial community -- Brokers, Merchant Bankers, Mutual funds, FIs. It's like cutting your nose to spite your face. guns : but not very good books by indian market guys. have you ever thought of writing one? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : you are right. Someone should do interviews with the great Indian traders. Manish : Do you think online stock trading is safe? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : it is safe, however hackers can create havoc at short notice. We will have to see how it functions with heavy volumes. chat : and who are these great Indian traders, Mr Damani? i really would love to know your opinion of "great Indian traders". Ramesh Shrichand Damani : i am fortunate enough to know them up close. However I have to respect their privacy. x : what do u think about i-flex, any thoughts about pricing range Ramesh Shrichand Damani : it looks promising. It should be around Rs 2000 p/e of 20. I believe they earn Rs 100 per share. Manish : so can i go ahead and shift all my trade from my broker to an online trading site? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : why not. If you want a minimum of hassle. Go with a big name though like hdfc, icici. atyagi : Dear Mr Damani,With SEBI denying sterlite for buyback, is not Sterlite a good stock for raiders? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : i don't see the logic. rakesh : WHO IS THE BEST AMONGST MANU MANEK, HARSHAD MEHTA,KETAN PAREKH AND NIMESH SHAH Ramesh Shrichand Damani : i prefer Nimesh's strategy. atyagi : Mr Damani, The logic is that with promoters holding less than 50% stake in the company and not able to buy back the shares. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : do you wish to go short ?? baskar : hello damani is this is time to buy pentamedia shares Ramesh Shrichand Damani : no. I would avoid it. rakesh : WHY NIMESH STRATEGY SIRR, WHTS GOOD ABT HIS STRATEGY Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Nimesh is very good in cyclical stocks like cement, auto. He does meticulous work and thinks for himself. He has had a great track record. He is a market leader. mss : Is E-serve good buy at these level Ramesh Shrichand Damani : yes, i still own it and like it. nitin_thampy : What will be the future of Option Markets? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : they will pick up. It will take time. monkey : hello mr. Damani, what is your view abt vsnl . i hv some at rs 350. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : i own some and like it. The Rs 50 div is very attractive. longnose : Is Rolta , Visual soft good buy at current rates? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : avoid rolta keep an eye on visual. ajay : Mr damani is it possible to retail investors in stock market to also make investments in the fixed income market to hedge the positions Ramesh Shrichand Damani : sure. Go to a bank or buy RBI securities. bigbull : what do u think of SSI's loan repayment strategy. I think the company is just playing around with cash. what's ur view? They are bullish on business. Is this a time to buy? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : let see the b/s. between SSI and NIIT, I would pick NIIT. bigbull : can i hold NIIT. I bought at 500 a share..their business I heard is just dying Ramesh Shrichand Damani : not dying just slowing down. I would hold on to it. NIIT yahooo : what do u think is the state of the market, do u expect anything about the margin trading Ramesh Shrichand Damani : i expect some form of margin trading. Govt will panic and introduce it. arahaman : Hi Ramesh, what's about Blue Dart? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : i like Blue Dart and Gati in the logistics business. rakesh : BUT I HAVE HEARD THT ENAM IS NOT POWERFUL ANY MORE AFTER THE SAD DEMISE OF ONE OF THE PROMOTER , IS THE ENAM STRATGEY GOOD ALWAYS AS THEY ALSO HAVE BEEN HIT BY TECH MELTDOWN Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Mr Manek Bhansali passed away. He was the man behind INFY. Everyone has been affected by the tech slowdown. rakesh : SO SHOULD I STILL FOLLOW RECOMMENDATIONS OF ENAM GROUP. I HAVE HEARD THT U R CLOSE TO THEM SO WHTS YR ADVICE SIRR Ramesh Shrichand Damani : no you should follow your own instincts. i was just commenting on some great trades/traders. arahaman : But Blue Dart come down from 170 to 90, why? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : it has gone ex bonus 1:1. It is actually at Rs 180 then Investor : Hi Mr.Damani..This is Ramya from Chennai and I am regularly participate in your chat@rediff. Last week , I had discussed with you the prospects of Software Education companies viz., SSI and NIIT. After that, if you notice, the SSI scrip has zoomed by more than 50 % from 140 to 215. You have been very critical about the company regarding their utilisation of cash. However, the company has repaid the debt thereby proving that it is cash-rich. Further, considering the need for techies in the industry, ( ref ITAA figures) these comanies do have a stable market. Would you recommend NIIT and SSI as LONG TERM ACCUMULATE..??? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : stocks can go up and down for many reasons. Before SSI went up it went down from 7500-150. An unheard of fall. Let's see SSI's b/s and 1-2 quarter results. My feeling tells me they will have trouble at the operating level. Between the two, i would buy NIIT. rakesh : WHTS YR VIEW ON MUKTA , I KNW THT THE FILM HASNT DONE WELL BUT I DONT GET THE LOGIC, EVERYBODY BOUGHT THE IPO AT 165 WAITING 1 YR FOR THE MOVIE SO WHY CANT WE WAIT AGAIN AND ITS AVAILABLE AT 80 WITH RS 50 CASH IN THE BALANCE SHEET AND AS IT IS THEY WILL BE MAKING MONEY IN YAADEIN Ramesh Shrichand Damani : you could but there may be more excting opportunities elsewhere. yahooo : do u think that govt will be forced to disinvest, just like manmohan singh did in the 90s , ie if the economy worsens as expected Ramesh Shrichand Damani : yes that is my call. Only a crisis led by IMF pressure will make it happen. saikishore : hdfc bank is fundamentally strong. but it's share price does not adequately reflect that. why is this so? when can we expect some uptrend in the stock? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : i like it except for the fact that all financial assets are going to suffer from UTI fallout. Kumar : Hi Mr. Damani Please tell us about the future of HFCL, Zee Telefilm, DSQ software and Pentamedia Graphics . Ramesh Shrichand Damani : only zee has a future. It is bleak for the rest of them sharan : who do you think will take over the vaccum that uti has created ?? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : more like a black hole that imperils the Indian financial system. Rahul : Dear Sir, Hi, I am Rahul das from Mumbai I am a regular participant of your chat session on rediff, I have a good portfolio comprising of all sectors FMCG, Pharma, IT, power, Now i would like to churn my portfolio more towards the old economy and the power stocks can u please advice. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : i am sorry. That is not a job for a chat show. bigbull : what's happening folks...looks like everyone in the room has put their money on NIIT and SSI. I thought I was the only fool. Comments Ramesh? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : or other tech stocks. The entire country went tech crazy. Harish : Ramesh, what do you think is the best tip for the day Ramesh Shrichand Damani : i like United Breweries for investment. Keep a 18-24 month time frame harry : Mr Damani-why are u recommending UB when its not doing too well financially at present? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : the future looks brighter. Thanks everyone for joining and see you next week. Join the Ramesh S Damani chat every Tuesday at 1600 IST. ALSO SEE:
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