'We are in an intermediate bearish phase'
Despite a connectivity problem, Maulik G Sharedalal managed to answer the crucial questions plaguing all equity investors. He says there is redemption pressure on domestic mutual funds and the conviction to buy in has been shaken by bearish chart patterns of many of the "leading lights" which keep traders away from bottom fishing.
Mr Maulik G Sharedalal (Wed Apr 19 19100 6:59 IST)
Hello guys, I am in and we can start the session
abhi (Wed Apr 19 19100 6:18 IST)
Mr Sharedalal: What is the problem with the market? Why is it falling even when nasdaq rises?
Mr Maulik G Sharedalal (Wed Apr 19 19100 7:4 IST)
Hi abhi, While it's nice that investors here are beginning to think global, quite often factors specific to markets locally here become relevant as well. We believe that stocks here, especially the techies, have been victim to reasonably substantial domestic mutual fund redemptions over the last few days. Conviction to buy in has also been shaken by bearish chart patterns on many of the "leading lights" in the market. This tends to keep traders from bottom fishing as well.
P K Punjabi (Wed Apr 19 19100 6:51 IST)
According to you what is the bottom of the market fall now. Why are we so keen on Nasdaq
Mr Maulik G Sharedalal (Wed Apr 19 19100 7:10 IST)
Hi P K Punjabi, Our interpretation of the Sensex daily chart suggests that we are in an intermediate bear phase. We see initial support for the Sensex around 4450 levels (ballpark) with a final target that could take us even towards 4200 levels over the next couple of months. There will always be corrective pull backs, but, we don't see the Sensex sustaining levels over 5100 during the near to medium term.
kamna (Wed Apr 19 19100 6:41 IST)
are satyam and infosys good buys at these levels
Mr Maulik G Sharedalal (Wed Apr 19 19100 7:17 IST)
Hi Kamna, Infosys ideally looks like a buy at 6,400 levels whereas Satyam seems to offer good value at 3,175 levels - in fact the very price at which it was limit down earlier today. Do however reconfirm these views with your broker/advisor before you actually invest!!
tirumal (Wed Apr 19 19100 7:12 IST)
Mr Maulik..is medium term 3 to six months ?. Will it be bearish even with satyam, NIIT and Infosys.. in Sensex
Mr Maulik G Sharedalal (Wed Apr 19 19100 7:23 IST)
Hi tirumal, Yes, medium term would be a 3-4 month horizon. Infosys and Satyam offer a reasonable investment opportunity at the levels i just indicated, but given our broad market view, these stocks should be bought with a 1 year horizon. NIIT, on the other hand, has been an outperformer of late. We think that instead of buying in at these 2100 levels, it would be better to wait for a correction towards 1750 levels.
Richa (Wed Apr 19 19100 7:18 IST)
Hi Maulik, How do you see the old economy stocks faring post the tech melt down. Is it a good time to enter some of the old heavy weights?
Mr Maulik G Sharedalal (Wed Apr 19 19100 7:27 IST)
Hi richa, Old economy stocks remain defensive investments - especially sectors like Cement, engineering and pharma. But we do think that over a 12 month period market outperformance will still come from investments made in quality - and this is the operative word - technology stocks.
Richa (Wed Apr 19 19100 7:27 IST)
Yes, Mr Maulik what do you think about Hinduja Finance. Is it a good investment - possibly long term?
Mr Maulik G Sharedalal (Wed Apr 19 19100 7:33 IST)
Hi Richa, I am excited by Hinduja Finance especially given its recent focus on "convergence" and the fact that they have recently put a very capable senior management team in place.
Mr Maulik G Sharedalal (Wed Apr 19 19100 7:45 IST)
Bye for now, great chatting with all of you.. See you next week.
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