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THE CHAT ROOMS
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'A collapse will force long-term structural reforms''I wish our politicians were more proactive. Where do we get the money to keep bailing out FIs,' asks Ramesh Shrichand Damani.
Rajiv : Hi Ramesh, I'm holding the following shares from IPO days. Which ones should I exit: Alstom Power, KSB Pumps, Hind Lever Chemicals & Electrosteel castings. I thought I could reinvest the proceeds in Gujarat Ambuja or L&T?? kunal : hi sir .my name is kunal and i am playing in this market from last 7months.i have made a terrible loss.now i need ur help Ramesh S Damani : Have you been able to identify the reasons you made the loss. Figure that out first. kunal : should i buy HFCL, DSQ SOFTWARE at this present rate Ramesh S Damani : I would not. The days for these stocks are over I think. bijal : Is there any scope for the power industry stocks like bhel tata power and abb to rise? Ramesh S Damani : I like and hold ABB. AlsoTata Power looks promising. : Ramesh, what should I do with Moser Baer and Rolta. Should I replace these with eServe for a better return long-term?? Ramesh S Damani : definitely replace rolta with eserve. I like eserve and own it. kalyanaraman : It appears that the root cause of all problems in our economy is due to high cost of various goods in relation to the income levels..this high cost is due to various duties,as per your reply earlier...cant the influential bombay brokers like you prevail upon the FM to reduce the duties so that the cost of tv,car etc..becomes on par with international prices,after adjusting for higher income levels abroad so that sales will increase and stock markets will go up and govt also will get same or more revenue due to increased sales Ramesh S Damani : Brokers are not influential. That is obvious. Govt spends way beyond what is necessary. IT has to get revenue from taxes and duties. kalyanaraman. : cant someone file a case against the govt for wasting tax payers money for bailing out indian bank,ifci etc...will the case win ?i know you are not a lawyer but i am still asking you, hoping that you may perhaps know the answer whether such a case will win .. Ramesh S Damani : I agree. A public body should file a PIl. However Parliament is Supreme. If approved, no court will turn it down. However, we should have ammendments to prevent this kind of abuse. Vicky : Do you see a sharper decline in VSNL price due to delayed disinvestment? Ramesh S Damani : I think VSNL is a good bet at current prices. It is still cum dividened. I own some. Vicky : Your view on HLL for one year time frame. I want to buy some if price goes to Rs 180?? Ramesh S Damani : Market pays for growth. If you want a defensive stock it is the best. For major appreciation, buy growth. harshadmehta : mr damani how do u find the buyback of sterlite optical Ramesh S Damani : IT was at a disappointing price. We may have seen the highs forthis share. brian : what impact will the problems in japan and south east asia have on india? Ramesh S Damani : Emerging markets is an asset class. If Argentina or Turkey default, it affects the entire asset class. Japan and India investment flows are not related. If Money comes to emerging markets, India will get its share. kalyanaraman. : even in the case of state bank of india (as well as many-if not all other banks ),the net profit is much lower than the income from investments in govt.securities...in other words,these banks make profits only because of the huge borrowings of our central govt.,whose finances are in bad shape...does this augur well for an investor ? Ramesh S Damani : I would also avoid all govt owned PSU's. Including the Debt and Gilt funds. They are all bailing each other out. That is poor economics. Vicky : Ramesh, I hold Tata Tea bought at IPO prices. Could you suggest a better share to replace it?? Ramesh S Damani : I would hold on to it. Tata Tea will rebound once the business cycle picks up. Its pretty close to a historical low. harshadmehta : DO U THINK THE RIGHT TIME HAS COME TO GO FOR LONG TERM POSITIONS OR YET TO WAIT AND WATCH Ramesh S Damani : Unless New Delhi wakes up, I am afraid we will be in a bad patch. Vicky : Unfortunately I hold IFCI and Finolex Industries - Would u suggest a hold or sell for both?? Ramesh S Damani : I would definitely sell IFCI. Tomorrow. bijal : Do you find any penny stocks attractive? Ramesh S Damani : I bought some Indo Mat App at Rs 1.50. harshadmehta : WELL DO U THINK UTI STUFF IS ALREADY DISCOUNTED IN THE MARKET. HOW DO U SEE THE LIC BUYING UTI SHARES OFF MARKET. ISNT IT A INDIRECT WAY TO BAIL OUT UTI FRM NEW DELHI Ramesh S Damani : Ofcourse it is. The redemption pressure will start Jan 2002 after NAV ispublished. It will be heavy. New inflows will stop in my opinion. roshan : do u think that the indian market is worth long term investment and why? Ramesh S Damani : At this point, I am discouraged. However you have to believe the country will survive and prosper. The short answer is yes. bijal : Do you recommend indo mat and why? Ramesh S Damani : IT is a sub of Matsushita.Never delivered. However at the market cap of Rs 1.5 cr it isa cheap warrant. I have not seen this year's results. Probably a loss. harshadmehta : WHEN DO U SEE THE NEXT PEAK COMING UP. UTI GETTING INDIRECT SUPPORT FRM NEW DELHI THRU LIC , ETC DOESNT IT LOOK GOOD Ramesh S Damani : Pls rephrase your question harshadmehta : U THERE MR DAMANI Ramesh S Damani : still here Vicky : Ramesh, I want to buy ITC how does it look on the charts and fundamentally? Ramesh S Damani : Fundamentally a co with a cashflow of Rs 100O Crores a year is a good bet. It looks okay to me. harshadmehta : WITH THE NEW DELHI BAILING OUT UTI THRU LIC, ETC DONT U SEE A GOOD TIME FOR STOCK MARKET IN NEAR FUTURE Ramesh S Damani : No. It just transfers the problem to LIC. UTI will be a shadow of its former self. Where do we get the money to keep bailing out our FI's. Its a bit scary. wise : is there any reason for optimism in Indian market? Ramesh S Damani : Can't see much. However if things get really bad, they have to improve. Indian govts act in time of a crisis. I think a crisis will bring out the best in us. kalyanaraman. : from your answer to mr.roshan's question,it appears that you believe our country will survive and prosper...i would also like to be an optimist like you but i am afraid of the reality that our poliicians are spoiling our country despite we indians being very brilliant and second to none...are you not afraid that our economy is heading to a collapse and our politicians are not bothered ? cant we people (non politicians) do something to stop this ? Ramesh S Damani : A collapse will force long-term structural reforms. Look at Mexico and China. Two basket cases propsering. I wish the politicians would be proactive. However it will take a crisis for everyone to get serious. harshadmehta : YUP I AGREEHOW DO U SEE IDBI BANK ? DOES THE HEALTH OF IDBI HAVE ANY INPACT ON IDBI BANK Ramesh S Damani : It does. I would avoid govt owned FI at this time. Look at the dealings between UTI and UTI bank. Vicky : Ramesh, our mutual fund managers could have done a much better job. I will have to wait years to see a good NAV from alliance new millenium and birla balance and alliance equity Ramesh S Damani : They have performed poorly. However, the risk is private. In UTI, it is the tax payers. harshadmehta : HOW DO U SEE THE REVIVAL OF ARVIND MILLS , PRICE AT RS 8 . DOES IT LOOK ATTRACTIVE TO YOU? Ramesh S Damani : No. It's part of the great Indian tradition not to close shop. We need quick exits. harshadmehta : DO U THINK IT IS THE RIGHT TIME FOR TAKING LONG POSITIONS OR STILL WAIT AND WATCH Ramesh S Damani : I keep wavering myself. I still think we could have a financial contagion. In that case, it would be best to wait. nxs : why does no one talk abt why 6 of UTI funds were in the top 10 funds last year ur opinion Ramesh S Damani : statistics can deceive. I am not sure which ones they are, but you have been warned. wise : will we see anything like the tech boom in india for the next 10 years? Ramesh S Damani : I think it could come in IT-enabled. Vicky : Sometime back you said Tata Power and ABB are the best in power. How is Tata Power looking to you now with all its ambitious plans? Ramesh S Damani : Take a long-term view and buy. daga : hi Ramesh , whar is your view on BALAJI TELE? Ramesh S Damani : IT supports the view that content will be king and not the channel. I expect start salaries to skyrocket. nxs : how do karnataka bank & karur vsysa bank look? Ramesh S Damani : I like karur vysya bank? smartinvestor : Mr. Damani what will be the fate of education stocks in the near future all of them ( NIIT, APTECH, SSI ) seem to have a GREAT FALL. Ramesh S Damani : Despite repeated diappointments, I would buy NIIT at some price. They could get bought out. solon : do you think sebi is over-reacting to balaji mukta issue? Ramesh S Damani : I think if they see circular trading, they should stop it. anil : Good evening Sir, what do u think of TELCO & Rel Pet in the near future Ramesh S Damani : I am not bullish on either. smartinvestor : WHY ONLY NIIT , U MEAN OTHERS WILL NOT RECOVER Ramesh S Damani : I am still unsure about mgmt vision on SSI and Aptech. SSI raised Rs 450 crores. Market cap is less then Rs 200 crores. It tells me something. Vicky : Few months back, Fortune magazine had rated Satyam as top ten world stocks and said it is the AOL of India. Can it really compete with VSNL?? Ramesh S Damani : That is a joke. Fortune should be more careful. The SIFY ADR is a write off. MANVARSINGH : DO YOU SEE ANY SURVIVAL OF STEEL SECTOR IN NEAR FUTURE. ALSO PLS ADVISE ON SILVERLINE TECHNOLOGY. Ramesh S Damani : Nothing exciting in steel. They will all trade at yields. I would avoid Silverline Tech. anil : Sir, Recently an issue was published in the Econmic Times about some of the Dividend paying companies how much should one bank on it. Ramesh S Damani : Dividend reporting is a fact. IT is reliable Vicky : why does TV18 continue to be a non performer in the market. Their content is superb!! Ramesh S Damani : It has no real (library) value. TRPs are down. basu : sir i have master puls 91 5000 units . is this the right time to sell it , i purchased 10 yrs back can u suggest me when should i go for a seeling these units Ramesh S Damani : Sell them and get into an index fund. That may be a good bet. WarrenBuffet : Mr.Damani., I want to ask you a macro level question. Of late, if you have noticed, the Analysts, Fund Managers etal (and ofcourse the investors.. !) seems to be bothering too much about the short-term. They look forward to the companies for guidance for a quarter etc. I feel this is too much a short sighted view which is unpardonable if a Fund Manager does that. What is your view on this systemic malaise..?? Ramesh S Damani : It is a very good point. In a young company a quarter is meaningless. First look at the big pciture. Get that right and buy the best companies. For trading, momentum stocks quarter on quarter is important. Prasanna : Why is the sentiment bearish regarding the HCL Tech. I look forward for your answer Ramesh S Damani : If Infy the leader cannot grow, it is doubtful the rest can. People are still uneasy with Mr Nadar's track record. Also it is not Rs 10 paid up. Still expensive in market cap. sureshbhai : Sir, new that small investors and day traders are out, what should they do. Is their any way the day traders can survive in the present conditions Ramesh S Damani : Day trading is like a skilled profession. Not for amateurs. Only a few will prosper. basu : what about uti shares will it improve in the near feature ? Ramesh S Damani : US 64-I doubt it. NAV will openaround Rs 7-8 levels. The rest are best sold. Vicky : Thanks for your answers Ramesh!! Next time I see u at Wet Wicket i will say hello!! Ramesh S Damani : Sure. Please identify yourself. harshadmehta : PLEASE COMMENT ON HINDUSTAN MOTORS Ramesh S Damani : I have stopped following it. srikantss : do u attribute the fall in IT stocks to just the recession in the USA or do u see a few other problems? Ramesh S Damani : Every bubble bursts. It was no different this time. Prasanna : Nasscom says US will outsource the software from India and the Indian Soft cos will grow, when do u think this will happen? Ramesh S Damani : They will and are. However, the market is a diff story. I think most of our children will work in the digital economy. paands : one different qustion sir what r ur hobbies Ramesh S Damani : I love to read a lot.Travel and Italian food. Cook and eat. RAJESH : Are you bullish in the cement sector Ramesh S Damani : Reasonably. Look at Grasim. skk : THERE ARE SOME WARNING ABOUT THE MEDIA COMPANIES DOING ROUNDS THESE DAYS , WHAT DO U THINK , WHY IS SEBI NOT TAKING ANY ACTION? Ramesh S Damani : They have started looking at it. Also revenue recognition in the industry is a huge problem. You consistent standards. For eg TIPS had a loss of Rs 10 crores. But Rs 25 crores depreciation. You figure. harshadmehta : HOW DO U FIND L&T, ON THE VERGE OF SELLING OR GOING FOR A JT VENTURE FOR ITS CEMENT DIVISION??? Ramesh S Damani : It looks okay. It is a great company. However, not much care for shareholders God : I have been just watching the whole proceedings from the sidelines during the last two chat sessions. One thing which came out very clearly was that you are TOTALLY AGAINST companies like SSI etc. At one place , you have mentioned that one of the reasons for yourselves not liking SSI is that the company has raised Rs.450 crores from the market. YOu also seems to be perturbed as to the usage of the same. But , if you see the Balance Sheet, they have invested approx. 200 crores in capital expenditure and they habve close to 250 crore as cash. Therefore why are you so harsh..?? Ramesh S Damani : THe balance sheet has not yet come. They recently repaid the debt. But why did they take debt when they had Rs 450 crs cash. Any stock that falls 98.5%, the management must be questioned. Maybe changed. harshadmehta : FUTURE OF IBP?? DO U FIND IT ATTRACTIVE AT CURRENT PRICES OR WOULD EXPECT A CORRECTION Ramesh S Damani : Okay at current rates of Rs 300. skk : WHAT IS THE CURRENT SCENARIO IN THE MARKETS, DO YOU THINK THE MARKETS MIGHT HAVE A NIB BELOW THE 3000 LEVELS FOR ONCE? Ramesh S Damani : Looks possible. srikantss : how far do u think the so-called economic slowdown will last ? Ramesh S Damani : Untill New Delhi gets worried.They are pre occupied with other problems now. pm : Any hope of improving NAV of tech funds of ICICI, Kothari & SUN F&C Ramesh S Damani : Not at the current time I am sorry. sureshbhai : Is there any chance for SEBI to lift the ban on badla in future Ramesh S Damani : It would have to be done on the FM's instructions. skk : DO U THINK THE CURRENT SLOW DOWN IN THE ECONOMY IS BECAUSE OF THE NEW DELHI PROBLEMS , OR IT IS MORE BECAUSE OF THE US SLOWDOWN? WHAT DO U THINK IS THE REMEDY FOR THIS? Ramesh S Damani : Structural reforms. Let business grow. Nothing gets done. Everything is challenged and debated endlessly. Inquiries are spreading a climate of fear over business. jigarti : any sggestions on KODAK or Rallis from old economy Ramesh S Damani : Kodak could go private. I think Rallis could be merged with tata chem harshadmehta : WHICH IS UR THE MOST ATTRACTIVE SCRIPT? PLEASE ANSWERRRRRR Ramesh S Damani : I have said it many times before.I am sure some suffer will mention it. Lets see. jigarti : what do you think of BATA @30 Ramesh S Damani : Nothing exciting. Mgmt just cant deliver. skk : WHAT DO U THINK IS THE MAIN CAUSE OF THE DEBACLE IN THE INDIAN MARKETS? Ramesh S Damani : Calcutta is a good place to start looking. The market caps o fthe momentum stocks were unsustainable. Giri : Hi RAMESH, I believe that even after a good performance by SATYAM, itz stock value has gone down, any specific reason? How will satyam perform in the future? Ramesh S Damani : I am not optimistic on it. SIFY and Vision are a bleeding ulcer. Growth will slow down. skk : THERE HAVE BEN RUMOURS IN THE MARKETS, THAT IT WOULD TOUCH 6000 LEVEL MARK BY MARCH 2002, DO YOU AGREE & Y? Ramesh S Damani : Rumours dont make money. Even a broken clock is right 2 times every day. srikantss : You say that US is outsourcing software from india. but where r the results. not many IT companies here have shown profits last quarter ? Ramesh S Damani : The good companies will get busimess. However, the slow down will be acrooss companies. harshadmehta : I AM NEW HERE AND JUST AN INTRO TO THE CAPITAL MARKET SO PLEASE TELL ME UR FAV SCRPITS . PLEASE DONT WANT TO START MY CAREER IN STOCKS WITH A LOSS Ramesh S Damani : Let me give you advice no tips. There are no guarantees in the stock market. gopal : I HAVE A RELIANCE PETRO SHARE OF 500 CAN I HOLD OR SELL Ramesh S Damani : I would book profits. It is an expensive stock. skk : HOW CAN U BLAME CALCUTTA ONLY , SINCE IT IS A WELL KNOWN FACT , THAT THE DEALS WERE DONE ON BEHALF OF THE MUMBAI BASED OPERATORS? Ramesh S Damani : But how did Calcutta let that happen. If your house is on fire, you put it out first. It was their exchange. Margin statments being inaccurate is a great joke. sdas : Sir, U r ingnoring my question on Escorts ! Ramesh S Damani : I am sorry i dont follow it. 4 circles is attractive gopal : WHICH SCRIPTS I CAN BUY IN THIS MARKET FOR INVESTEMENT Ramesh S Damani : look through the transcripts. I am trying to avoid this becominga tip show. Thanks all for joining.Have a good week. Bye | |