|
|
|
|
|
| HOME | CHAT | TRANSCRIPTS | |||
|
THE CHAT ROOMS
|
'Despair grips the markets!''The fall is really shattering. Unless divestment happens, not much can be expected', says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.
wen : y does the rbi not cut interest rates as often the fed? deepak : sir, what do u think of the whole enron tamasha? Ramesh Damani : If we dont honour our committments, we will be in trouble. polity : do u thnk tat the govt is acting at all to sustain economic growth? Ramesh Damani : No they are not. Other than inquiries, JPC's, we are not doing anything. It is very disheartening. jay : y are infosys, satyam and niit falling so badly today? when will they ever be stable? Ramesh Damani : It beats me. NIIT has fallen 97% from peak and is still not stable. It's hard to make any predictions in this kind of market. However we will be compelled to change our settlement system before things, volatility improves rhea : do u ever invest in auto stocks? Ramesh Damani : Hello everybody thanks for joining in. Lets start. Not lately. I had some auto ancillary stocks, but they proved to be a big fuzz. jaswant : mr damani, did you get a chance to read PUPLAVA on net? Ramesh Damani : Yes I read the latest and enjoyed it. I too feel bullion is bullish and dollar will be weak. rupali : any idea of the progress on sebi's investigation into stock scams? Ramesh Damani : It is still going on. It probably won't end till the JPC ends. Gunjan : Mr Damani, can you elaborate why stock of It cos are falling? Ramesh Damani : I think in hindsight we had built a bubble in tech worldwide. Bubbles always end badly. dev : if an investor asks you, what's the ideal thing to do in this market, what would you say? Ramesh Damani : I am sorry to say this, but the ideal thing would have been to stay away. Everyone else buyers, sellers are being investigated. kamini : do u think SEC shd've put some limit on selling in the US? would that have helped? Ramesh Damani : That is a bad idea. Though I feel they should have opened the market on September 12. Especially NASDAQ. Gullible people were told to buy stock. That is bogus. Markets work best when they are free. ram : do you ACTUALLY think US will attack Afghanistan? If so, when do u think it'll happen? Ramesh Damani : I think they will. The fear is on what Bin Laden does. His response is unpredictable.Another attack would have devastating consequences. polity : do u think there is some kind of conspiracy going on. first m m kapur of uti dies, then nirmal bang. what is happening? Ramesh Damani : No conspiracy but it has been an "annus-horriblus" for the financial markets. I can't wait for 2001 to end. Ramdas : Will the US attacks on Afghanistan affect stocks in India or the dollar rate? Ramesh Damani : I am expecting a weaker rupee. The deifict is beyond control hema : whats ur fav these days other than UB and e-serve? anything else looking good? Ramesh Damani : I bought some Indian Hotels recently. However I must warn you the counter looks shaky. You will probably get it cheaper. gaurav : mr damani, should india also attack afghanistan to take revenge of that hijacked incident in kandahar Ramesh Damani : The same hijackers released for the IC plane are now doing damange in J&K. War is expensive though. If the US fights it for us, it is good. Otherwise counter-terrorism is more effective and cheaper. clile : sir, could you please tell me what you think is the future of the Indian mutual fund industry? Ramesh Damani : There has been a dramatic underperformance. Hence the future for equity and mutual funds look bleak. Gunjan : Do you think that we will have a terrible chemical and biological weapon war in this forthcoming war? Ramesh Damani : That is my great fear. Laden is unpredictable. yash : becauses of the crises in america is the opportunities for indian will increase or not? Ramesh Damani : Not in the short run. Immigration and spending will slow down in the US. That is bad news for us. jaswant : i have been investing in share markets since 1972 but this for the first time i can't predict anything with a visibility of one year? can you? Ramesh Damani : Ditto. I have hardly read of this kind of fall. It is a mess. Arun : What do you think about e-Serve International....Are you disappointed after AGM Ramesh Damani : No I still like it. We may have to be patient, but it is good value. Raaj : No body can predict the stock market is it right, even technical chart, etc Then why so much hype about these. Ramesh Damani : We have to keep busy! navin : Sir UB reccomendation gave me good profit, whats the new one? Ramesh Damani : I have recommended that for the long term.(UB) curious : How has bin Laden supposed to have made money thru 'put' options before the attacks... what are these? Ramesh Damani : A put options is a bet that price of a stock will fall from current levels. United opened 50% lower after Sept 11. Hence the buyer of the put made some quick money. Read more by referring to derivatives site. Raaj : What is the prospect of Global Telesystems, I think its CPS more than market price. Ramesh Damani : I still say avoid it. jaswant : i think shanker sharma & others have been reading 'bears' like Jim Puplava but no one beleived them. instead people are accusing them. Ramesh Damani : Amen! DAS : Do you think Indian stock markets have reached rock bottom? Is this the right time to buy? If yes, buying should be in which sectors and counters? Ramesh Damani : I dont think they have reached bottom. The fall is really shattering. Raaj : Do yoy think the financial results like balance sheet etc are correct and not manipulated? Ramesh Damani : A lot of the company's balance sheets are not clean. They look manufactured. ghanti : dear sir, isnt it that the mess if at all in LIC comes into light would shatter indian economy ? We already have ICICI, IFCI & IDBI in a mess. Ramesh Damani : LIC at the current time is fine. I worry about the other names especially UTI. jaswant : do you know that warren buffet has invested in silver since 1996. but some say that he has divested. any idea? Ramesh Damani : I have been trying to find that out. Let me know if you do. jaswant : i dont understand your slang 'Amen' Pl explain Ramesh Damani : It's slang for exactly. Right. Ditto. Like that Satyamfan : Damani g=how much money have u lost in the crash? Ramesh Damani : This is about investing, not about me. techbull : RAMESHBHAI, India's Software development outsourcing potential could receive a shock with a couple of big terrorist attacks, because foreign companies would not want to outsource critical operations to a country perceived as unsafe.What do you feel? Ramesh Damani : Actually US is no safer than any emerging country today. In a recession, pressure to cut costs are immense. Beside these are not state secrets. It will be slow because of recession, not due to terrorist attacks. GSGANDHI : What is thefuture of our capital market in year2002 Ramesh Damani : It looks fairly grim. Unless disinvestment is done or systemic changes are bought, not much can be expected. devyendra : damanijee, isn't it that teh telecom bubble has burst in india? Ramesh Damani : Burst world wide. India hardly had any listed companies in tele. None in private sector. Satyamfan : Mr Damani..can u rank the following four companies? Infosys, Wipro, Satyam and HCL Tech interms of prospects? Ramesh Damani : Infy and Wipro. I am not enthusiastic about the other two. tejas : RAMESHBHAI, I HAVE PUR. 100 SH. OF ZEE TELE & 50 OF PENTA @ ABOBE RS. 400 PER SHARE BEFORE ONE YEAR. WEHTER THIS SCRIPTS REACHES AT THIS PRICE IN FUTURE ???? Ramesh Damani : Zee has some value. It might take years, but could recover. I am not a fan of PENTA. devyendra : Damanisab, dont u think that the era of e-broking has collapsed in india ? Or it never existed in indiaA? Ramesh Damani : Correct. It never started. techbull : RAMESHBHAI, Geometric Software seems like a neat little player in a protected niche market. What is the outlook? Ramesh Damani : I traded in it. Still own some. However it will be lost in the crowd. bipin : A bubble called Hughes Sharekhan has been actively covering Hughes Software systems. Sharekhan has recommended a "Sell" on Hughes software systems after a lower guidance from the management. Cited reasons were slowdown etc. I am surprised by this recommendation coming at this time. Hughes management is as good as Pentamedia. So, I was surprised, how it even made to the list of recommended stocks. I have voiced a lot of concerns, about the quality of management. It should be a recommended sell, because of "management" and not the environmental factors. Agreed it is backed by a wellknown parent, but the management here is reputed to be quite bad. A few historical insight into how Hughes misleads. 1. They refer themselves to be the #1 Communication software company in India. Now that's innovative. The market loves leaders. But TCS and Wipro have communication software divisions bigger than entire Hughes. You are always #1 in someway or the other. 2. During the good old days of DotComs, H Ramesh Damani : It is below its IPO price and the telecom vertical is dead. Tough times ahead. Management is considered as good as the other leading co's. DAS : I wish to take advantage of the falling markets and build a portfolio. Yours suggestions please. Ramesh Damani : Look at previous sessions for ideas. vikas : And today we see that pakistan ruppe is becoming stronger to USD and on the other side, Indian rupee losing itīs value. Is it beacuse of lifting of sanctions on pakistan. But my question is same holds true for India too(as sanctions have been lifted against India too). Ramesh Damani : There is no bull economy in the Pak rupee. It is just a bounce. The Indian rupee also seems weak. ramprasad : ramesh could you tell me till how much time will this fall in it shall remain Ramesh Damani : The dow first touched 1000 in 1968. It did not cross that level for 14 years or until 1982. Nikkie Japan is at a 19-year low. tejas : Rameshbhai, I have also 50 sh. of silverline @rs. 270/- & 50 of L&T @rs. 180/- whether silverline reaches at this price and whether L&T will reach at around 250/- Ramesh Damani : I would bet on Larsen. ManojKMenon : Hi Ramesh. I am a great admirer of HDFC bcoz of three reasons 1. Steady but safe business 2. Terrific management bandwidth 3.Majority stake by FIIs.However at a multiple of 17 ( trailing FY 01 ) , dont you think the valuations are stretched.. Is there any upsides other than demand driven shoots ? Ramesh Damani : You make a good case. However their investmentportfolio of Rs 3000 cr is poor at best and not worthy of great management. They will ultimately be sold to a FII. The first case in India. devyendra : damanisab, u told that teh telecom bubble burst worldwide & we dont ahev any listed comoany in india. What abt Escorts ? The company is banking heavily in telecom/cellular for survival.Their old economy businesses are not doing too well. Ramesh Damani : Usha Martin, Escorts etc but they never had bloated market caps. HFCL had one and it burst. ok : is ti wise buy Castrol India at current price & then apply takeover offer? Ramesh Damani : Doesn't look that hot. Satyamfan : Bipin: That is sad. Did he borrow money and buy? Ramesh Damani : I am sorry too--but remember there is no such sure thing in the market. bipin : You guys please let me know how to get this thing probed insider trading by Hughes. Ramesh Damani : Write to SEBI stating your case. prakash bhai : damani ji, will badla reborn any time. If yes, when can it be predicted? Ramesh Damani : Sometimes market may force the govt by its price actions. Around Jan do a check. prakash bhai : Rameshji, will disinvestment will take place in india on a large scale Ramesh Damani : It looks impossible. In 9 years, America sent a man to a moon. We are still trying to disinvest the first listed PSU. It is tragic rajesh : I repeat, sir, woudl you recommend Novartis as a buy now ? Ramesh Damani : I have no recommendaion on it. Buy or sell. RAJESH BHOJWANI : HELLO Mr. DAMANI WHAT WOULD BE THE NEXT STEP OF JALAN? Ramesh Damani : I would expect to see a temp drop in Indian rates. varma : sir,can i hold ssi and niit.i have ssi 50nos @370rs and niit 100nos@410.can i add more to average or forget.kindly advice Ramesh Damani : I may average NIIT not SSI. Average when you feel the despair is complete. Satyamfan : Mr Damani..I am doing half your job in answering questions..Maybe u should pay me for this Ramesh Damani : i also do it pro-bono. Remember 40 people ask Qs, I only answer. It has to be slow. praveen : what about gtb,i have some, do i sell it or hold,there are no dividends at Ramesh Damani : Does not excite me. prakash bhai : Damani ji, in what mood is the market now ?? Ramesh Damani : Despair! prakash bhai : Damani Ji, Is indian economy sentimental to our stock market.. does stock markets reflect the economy of any country Ramesh Damani : Stock markets are very vulnerable to any news. All markets have bubbles. akc2000 : Damani ji, do U think it is wise to invest in the RIL and RPL scrips now ?..their prices are now in the low range and analysing Reliance share prices in the past, I feel they can't continue in that range for long. Isn't there a chance of medium term benefits in those scrips ? Ramesh Damani : I think UTI holding is a critical overhang on the stock. varma : sir,has any one noticed shanthi gears in b2 group it is a outperformer to market.when index was at 6000 it was 37 now it is 47 and more so it pays 50% divident regularly.damani sir;please give us your view on that. Ramesh Damani : I am sorry I dont follow it. prakash bhai : Damani ji where is the world markets heading to Ramesh Damani : Financial assets will underperform. san : kindly advise Mr. Damani. If one offers 50 shares under take over offer by Castrol, will company takeover all 50 shares? Ramesh Damani : I think they will do it propotionately. I am not sure. Check with the lead manager. varma : damani sir, please give your view on andhra bank;hughes tele and blue dart.you are taking lot of pains to answer all those questions for the benefit of small investors.i very much appreciate that. Ramesh Damani : I like blue dart and own some. Hughes tele is going to take time. Andhra Bank is a unknown. Satyamfan : U are wrong Damani: From here on Financial assets will outperform Ramesh Damani : I hope you are right. I am worried though. akc2000 : The Sept 11 incidents is likely to have an impact on the Crude Oil prrices. Do you think this will affect the profitability of Reliance Petroleum and the other new refineries that has come up ?...If not, don't you feel that the present price of RIL scrip of around 27 is a good buy time ?.. How will the UTI holding affect the prices ? Ramesh Damani : They need money and they will be sellers at higher prices. It is one of the few saleable stocks they have in large quantities. That would put a cap on the price. devyendra : damanisab, isnt it that the era of mergers & acquisitions is fast disappearing from the global scene ? Ramesh Damani : That M& A can revive Indian markets. However will it happen? Thanks for joining in. See you next week. | |