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Neena Haridas in New Delhi

Will Bill pack his duffel bag with megabucks for corporate India, or would he just cram his shorts and a dummy dove for a peace-making gesture?

The last time India Inc had shown such anticipation was when it waited for the arrival of Microsoft's Bill Gates. That visit, however, turned out to be a damp squib. The business giants of India thought that Gates would open trade gates between India and US and create billionaires like him all over the country. Nothing of the sort, however, happened.

Now, India Inc awaits the arrival of US President Bill Clinton with bated breath. It hopes that Bill will open all the gates and bring India on an equal footing with the Yankees, at least while talking business.

And this is what India Inc thinks Bill will pack in his bag, apart from new business ideas and deals.

The Confederation of Indian Industry or CII, the largest association of business leaders in India, believes that the 'Clinton effect' will bring in business worth an additional $ 4 billion over the next five years. And this excludes software exports.

Tarun Das, director general of CII, says that the industry expects the presidential visit to spark off a surge in Indo-US trade. CII estimates that India's exports to the US can grow from the current $ 8 billion to $ 12 billion by 2005. US, meanwhile, exports only about $ 4 billion worth of products to India.

During 1998-99, India's exports to the US stood at $ 7330.91 million, having registered a growth of 7.77 per cent in dollar terms and 22 per cent in rupee terms over the previous year. The commodity-wise export statistics show that gems and jewellery have the largest share at 31 per cent, and cotton and accessories account for 16 per cent.

Other commodities having large shares are fabrics at 5.4 per cent, handicrafts excluding handmade carpets at 4.1 per cent, and metals at 3.5 per cent. These five commodities account for 60 per cent of India's total exports to the US.

During April-September 1999, share of India's exports to the US out of total global exports has been recorded at 23.08 per cent. This was 23.01 per cent during the corresponding period of the previous year.

Meanwhile, in the year 1998-99, India's imports from US stood at $ 3641.32 million having declined by 2.03 per cent. Commodity-wise imports show that machinery, except electric and electronic goods, has the largest share of 12.57 per cent in India imports from the US. Electronic goods at 12.22 per cent are in the second spot.

Other commodities having large shares are fertilisers at 8.15 per cent, project goods at 7.8 per cent, organic chemicals at 6.6 per cent, and chemicals at 5.1 per cent. The maximum import growth has been registered at 192 per cent by vegetable oils fixed (edible) followed by chemical materials at 129 per cent.

During April-September 1999, the share of India's imports from US out of India's global imports has been recorded at 8.45 per cent during this period, which was 8.47 per cent during the corresponding period last year.

Says Tarun Das, "Even if we increase imports from the US, there is so much extra we can export to the US that the balance of trade will still remain in our favour. I think President Bill Clinton's visit will prove to be a turning point in Indo-US economic relations."

And a 'turning point' is just what India has been looking for ever since the US put roadblocks in the form of economic sanctions following India's nuclear tests in Pokhran two years ago. However, even as Clinton was trying to send strong anti-nuke signals, the business community in the United States was badly hurt. Meanwhile, its European counterparts raked in the moolah.

Micheal T Clark, executive director, US-India Business Council, feels that Clinton's visit to India is an opportunity to take the relations to a 'higher plane.' Which is why business bigwigs are expected to accompany the President.

Frank Wisner, former US ambassador to India and currently representing American International Group Inc, Lou Gestner of IBM, Arun Netraveli of Lucent Technologies, Jack Smith of General Motors, Kenneth Lay of Enron, Jack Welch of General Electric are among those expected to accompany Clinton.

Keeping them company would be some homegrown CEOs who expect to be invited on Air Force One. About 50 top CEOs in the energy, telecom, insurance, and infotech sectors have been issued invitations to accompany the US President when he arrives here next week. Although it is still unclear who will finally make it on Air Force One, the focus sectors indicate that the business communities of both countries are moving securely towards knowledge-based co-operation.

The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry or FICCI is expected to sign a protocol with its counterpart the US-India Business Council (USIBC) to extend co-operation in knowledge-driven industries.

Says Amit Mitra of FICCI, "Indo-US economic co-operation should be seen in the context of the withdrawal of economic sanctions imposed in the wake of the 1998 nuclear tests. Therefore, what Indian business hopes to gain from the Clinton visit will be an opportunity to enhance trade in vertical and horizontal terms, as well as increased market access for Indian exports to the US."

On its part the CII is planning to launch a clutch of business-to-business initiatives during the presidential visit to help realise the export target.

A CEOs' forum will be set up by the CII between Indian and US companies. This panel will be headed by a prominent Indian CEO and will hold meetings twice a year to identify methods to increase trade and investment between the two countries.

Tarun Das says that this will be the first top-level CEO forum between the two nations.

Another CEOs' group will be formed specifically for infotech, pharma and biotechnology sectors. This forum will be headed by Infosys's chief executive officer N R Narayana Murthy. These two for a will feed the government-to-government economic dialogue which will also be launched during the presidential visit.

A delegation of young CEOs (under 35) will be taken to the state of Kentucky in May, where an "India week" will be held in Memphis. Says Das, "The idea is to expose the new generation of business to the potential of exporting to the United States. The focus will be on agri-business and infotech sectors. We are also bringing out a booklet on 'how to do business in the US'. This will have practical information on legal and procedural issues of selling and investing in the US."

The CII's calendar is choc-a-bloc with US-related events this month. Among the other economic deliverables planned for the Clinton visit is an idea of a commercial alliance, which was proposed by the assistant secretary Patrick Malloy when he was here last week. The idea is still nebulous, but it actually aims to build on the USICA (US-India Commercial Alliance) started during the path-breaking visit of the commerce secretary, Ron Brown, in 1995 and built on by William Daley's visit in 1997. The alliance would institutionalise B2B dialogue where government presence would act only as a facilitator.

Says FICCI'S Mitra, "The first generation co-operation between the two countries was confined to power, FMCG and capital goods sectors. But in the second generation, with India emerging as a knowledge-rich economy, Indo-US business co-operation will focus on biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, petrochemicals and entertainment. India may have the second-largest entertainment industry in the world after Hollywood, but its entertainment exports are negligible. Entertainment forms about 25 per cent of the US export basket."

In the information technology sector, greater emphasis will be given to higher order software, since the bulk of software developed in India is low-end stuff. Environment 'clean' technology and R&D, Mitra believes, will find a ready market in India, while the core areas of power, insurance and telecom still hold promise.

The CEOs will be presented a package by Indian industry that will not only showcase the potential of investing in India, but will also help create jobs for Americans -- 'win-win options' for American industry. "We have to approach business relations in a politically correct manner,'' said Mitra.

For instance, Bechtel, which was the sole consultant for the Jamnagar refinery, brought in jobs for Americans as well as Indians. This will be the pitch for India . The US is already the largest investor in 19 sectors of the Indian economy, while Indo-US trade has jumped by 120 per cent between '91-'98.

US companies have recently exhibited a tremendous interest in India's environment market. India has a market potential for pollution control equipment to the tune of $ 2.5 billion and is growing by 15 per cent annually. This sector is listed as the third best market after software and telecommunications.

Meanwhile, The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is targeting to lend between $ 1 billion and $ 1.4 billion to India in 2000 after sanctions are lifted following Clinton's visit. "ADB's lending to India was around $ 1 billion before the sanctions were imposed on India," says Alex Jorgensen, senior project implementation officer for India, ADB. Lifting of sanctions would enable ADB to extend loans for infrastructure projects, otherwise lending to only social sector may come to around $ 0.5 billion.

"After the Rs 10,000-12,000-crore loan from the World Bank, the Karnataka government may have difficulty in fiscal management if it were to take more loans from ADB," explains Jorgensen. ADB has already sanctioned a $ 175-million loan for Karnataka's coastal belt project a few months ago, he adds.

"Computer technology is vital to removal of poverty in India and ADB now plans to lend to this sector in India," says John Lockhart, executive director, ADB. Removal of poverty is the main criterion for ADB while taking up a project, he adds. "High-level ADB team has come to India after five years, and over the last two weeks we have visited four states to study India and check how the projects funded by ADB in India are doing. ADB's lending to infrastructure and social sectors will continue in India. It is now also looking at funding projects in the new sectors like IT (information technology), biotechnology, floriculture and the like," says Lockhart.

Another piece of good news for India Inc is that on the eve of the presidential visit, the US Exim Bank will open for business in India with the sanctions lifted. James Harmon, chairman of Exim Bank, was quoted as saying he would like to expand lending in India in dollars and in the new device of guarantees for rupee loans, especially to small and medium enterprises, a system first started in South Africa.

And that is not all. A business delegation from the state of Pennsylvania is touring India and a group of MBA students from Georgetown University will be visiting shortly before Clinton's arrival. As a dry run to the Clinton visit, Richard Haass, director of the Brookings Institute, was in town recently advocating a free trade agreement between the two countries. Elmer Johnson, the president of the prestigious Aspen Institute, is also expected to visit India soon.

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